Topic: Rally Analysis - page 2. (Read 6128 times)

nobody can say that for sure.
But the next events to watch are the second scaling workshop (Dec 6th-7th 2015) and halving in Juli 2016.
since the last workshop price is constantly rising, so if there is progress in solving scalability that could have a huge influence on price.

That is really good news for those who are still holding their coins i am also expecting $600 will be achievable with this next bubble so when can expect $1000 or even more than before end of this year is that possible?

whales in control

we are going sideways way longer than expected. I was bullish all the way up since 200. But for now price is in control of arbitrage and short-term traders. We had a lot of good news and I expected we would go at least to 600 in this run. I am not so sure anymore tbh. Seems like new money is too scared to buy in after the race to 500. Still holding my coins but watch carefully.

Most interesting thing happening is that the premium between exchanges is decreasing. It looks like some people take advantage of arbitrage trading mainly between btc-e and okcoin. Also ltc arbitrage is in the house, ltc longs on okcoin got killed in a sick move. this should scare the shit out of short term traders.

yep 500 was pretty sure short squeeze.

chart looks pretty nice now, we maybe found the support line, which was tested twice with low volume.
At least it was a nice opportunity to go long @365 with stop loss 355, 3% risk (stamp numbers). bears need more ammo to kill the new longs.

Great Charts!

That sharp spike clearly had a lot to do with lots of short positions getting squeezed.

You can see on BFXdata.com, that finex short positions soared as Bitcoin went above $330, and crashed as Bitcoin kept reaching higher and higher. The short positions crashing aka, buying Bitcoin to cover themselves and leave the market, would have sent Bitcoin inexplicably high.....

.....But currently trading at $370, that is just $40 above the previous $330 break out zone, although I suspect that the market is probably a bit out of steam in both directions at the moment. Bears are screaming down, Bulls are screaming up. I think the reality is that Bitcoin farts along sideyways for a while, with perhaps a little more bias towards testing $350, than $380.

ty

chart looks bit less bullish today morning, if 4hour candle closes below 369 on stamp...  

we need to restart the engine for the next wave today or we lose steam

Keep those charts coming! They are awesome to look at and explain very well why the price returned to a normal lower level.

Everybody should have expected the price to collapse again, especially after rising by 100 usd in a day.

I don't find this rally mysterious at all.  

Bullish above this line:




Few days ago I loaded the historical prices of gold and bitcoin and created some charts.

Here is one, showing the performance of gold vs bitcoin in 2015:



and one more:

large image

Laughing my ass off at all the "sudden" TA crap that comes out of the woodwork after a mysterious rally. Stupid random lines drawn on charts.  Seen this crap before, but where? Oh yeah that's right, I remember now.... two years ago.

You guys need to give it up, you always get proven wrong.  And then you mysteriously vanish when the market bottoms out and goes nowhere.

a beauty she is.

this is some wild speculation  but to kill time as long we go sideways...

timetravel back to 2013?



one coin four cups?

As announced this is my view of good and bad news comparison and also why I am long term bullish. This is my personal view/opinion. Although I believe that bitcoin will succeed I would never invest more as I can afford to lose. Especially not in times of high volatility.


Good and bad news comparison - Analysing Bitcoin

Positive:

Funds
When I read it I thought: It's happening. 2015-09-15 ARK Invest becomes first public fund manager to invest in bitcoin
The first fund to invest is WEB X.0 ETF (ARKW). When the news came out I checked their holdings: 0.8% of the fund was invested in GBTC. Til today they increased their position to 1.33%. Source
When more Funds start to invest in bitcoin this will be huge.

Regulated Exchanges (Geminit, Itbit, ..) and ETFs
GBTC and XBT Provider offer investors a new way to invest in bitcoin. Regulated exchanges like gemini or itbit are required for institutional investor after the mtgox mess.

First Sidechain Released and the Lightning network
The first sidechain was released in october. 2015-10-13 Blockstream releases sidechain called liquid
Sidechains add new features to bitcoin. For example the Lightning network could solve the scalability problem using payment channels.

Bitcoin Scaling Workshop
There are different attempts to solve scalability and it somehow splitted the community. There are different opinions, how bitcoin could scale. To solve this, it's the best way to bring people together, listen and understand the ideas of each other to find the best solution. Then implement it.   
Therefore two workshops are organized:
Scalingbitcoin.org
Montreal, Canada: September 12th-13th, 2015
Hong Kong, SAR, China: December 6th-7th, 2015

Halving
The blockreward will be reduced from 25 to 12.5 in end of Juli 2016. There will be less new coins.

Bitcoin Venture Capital
Check the list. Why do they invest in bitcoin related companies? Most likely because they believe the bitcoin project will be successful.

Banks
Banks start to rethink about bitcoin and blockchain. Blockchain is a hot topic right now and banks research it.

Here is an interesting article by Deutsche Bank: Blockchain – attack is probably the best form of defence


Several banks currently research "the blockchain technology". They dont like to use the word bitcoin. But there is only one global decentralized blockchain: bitcoin (and altcoins most of them are forks of bitcoin)
They hope to build private blockchains to be able to control the network but this is not the idea behind bitcoin. With bitcoin you do not have a party to trust.

Gold Bitcoin - Anti-correlation
Somehow it looks like bitcoin and gold are anti-correlated since the beginning of 2015
Is money switching from gold to bitcoin? Or is there another reason? I am actually researching this topic.

Currency War, Competive Devaluation
This is a topic I am very interested in but it's also very difficult. I believe that we have a Currency War (Competive Devaluation).
I am from europe and euro has lost from 1.60 to 1.08$. There has also a devaluation of chinese yuan recently. USD is going up against euro and cny. But is it true? Or is the devaluation of usd just slower than the devaluation of euro and cny? Nobody wants to have a strong currency in a globalized world because your exports suffer from it.
My opinion is that bitcoin should anti-correlate to fiat currencies so bitcoin should go up when currencies devaluate.

Marketcap
The current marketcap of bitcoin is 5,690,845,896$. I think that bitcoin will either succeed or fail. If bitcoin succeeds then this market cap seems way to low.



Negative

MtGox Coins
There are 200,000 bitcoins from the MtGox which was shut down. They could and prolly will have a temporary influence on the bitcoin price.

Scaling
Scaling of bitcoin has not yet been solved. Some people say this is a critical issue, i think its a major issue. Do your own research.

It's too early
Bitcoin is still experimental. This is actually true. Everybody should be aware of this:

No good signs yet. Always moving around 380$ and still a lot of spread between China exchanges and ours. This is quite strange  to be seen

It's looking like 400 will be tested again tonight, I expect to wake up to 420.

You might have to wait a long time for <350

"I expect 360 was already the lowest and we go up again from here but 340 could happen, 320 is very unlikely. "

This is a solid point. I will buy back around 340/345. Long term bullish offcourse.

yes, I also follow this on the 4h chart



but I am very careful with intraday trades. It often looks like "next hours are critical" and then it goes sideways and we find a new line to follow.

Thats why i mainly watch the 1day chart and I am confident that we will have a green candle today


/e: also take a look at the comment section of this post, he is commenting the 4 hour chart:

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCCNY/nDZkBPjT-BTCCNY-Bullish-above-2210-aiming-for-8818-35/