how did you know to do that??
It's the same as asking gamblers exiting a casino about whether they won. Those that did will proclaim loudly how much money they made. Those that lost (the majority of punters) remain silent. He didn't know any more than a roulette player knows the ball will land on black next.
+1 Unless he was the member of the pump-and-dump team that set this up.
Not really. I have more hits than misses, because I don't analyze the market with stupid charts, as a behaviorist I analyze the people using those stupid charts
Also, there is a psychological resistance to round numbers, so before any number ending with zero, you will always see a resistance and a "correction". But that will be temporary.
All I knew was that 35 was below the actual equilibrium. I wasn't expecting it to jump right back, but I didn't care, because it was still under the equilibrium, and I was content thinking about a 15% to 30% profit margin.
This market is robust now, I don't think it will be back to sub 20 values, those days are over.
I don't get stressed out at all. I place my bets ahead of time, and I sit and wait.
That is undeniably smart. but didn't we blow past 30/40 pretty easily? You sold at pretty much the exact top and bottom of the swing, which seems a lot of luck went into as well as 'take it or leave it' confidence
This is what happened, I placed a small ask around 22. I already felt that 30 was a big psychological resistance, considering that at that time it was historically the highest price ever. I had originally all my asks placed at 30.
But once I sold at 22, I cancelled the ask at 30 of my remaining BTCs and waited.
It was obvious to me that if the barrier of 30 was broken, it would rally up. That's how we are as humans when we become too optimistic about something... (and especially someone). That 30 was like the lid of a pressurized cooker, a lot of repressed dreams was being held there. A crack would definitely make it overflow it.
After pondering about it, I finally I bought BTCs back at 29.5 and waited patiently to go over 30 (even when it was falling, I believe it touched 28 again, right? I missed that opportunity to bid lower, anyways, I knew it didn't matter because I was confident that it would pass 30)
I can't predict exact numbers, but I can predict overall trends in mid term, and that is enough for me.
I have several rules of thumb:
To manage unrealistic expectation: whatever I hope, divide it by two.
For project planning: make an accurate estimation of how much time and money will cost for a project, and then multiply them by two. That will save you a lot of headaches, and as you probably will finish earlier your customer will be even happier... but if shit happens, you are already covered and will finish on time.
Considering the acceleration I was hoping to get to 100, so my left brain kicked in, applied my heuristics and considered that the number 50 was a more likely number, but knowing that we have naturally a psychological resistance to round numbers, I placed my ask order at 49.
And placed an order for 35 when it was falling again, to me it was obvious that the equilibrium would be around 40... OR at least bounce back at 40 before falling further.
This is the type of heuristics I apply for short/mid-term...
For long term I consider other things.
PS: We have a love/hate relationship with round numbers. Because we love them, we fear them.
