Topic: Rally is starting - page 4. (Read 13476 times)
Due to lack of interest, the rally has been cancelled.
Right, and the same thing will happen to btc betties that happened to the franc. If a lot of people start using them as a hedge, the price will rise. Then people will be wanting to hold betty not only because they have a stable value...but because they have a rising value! ralley.
A betty is the BTC:USD pair? I don't follow what you're saying, the Bitcoin central bank will peg the BTC to the Euro? Or you mean before Zurich threw the wrench into the rally? Yes, this would be an ideal scenario, if it's easy to sell your european currency (euro, kroner, swissy) for btc (because it's seemingly pegged to the dollar) then it will appreciate even against the dollar. This would be an excellent development ahead of a Greek default.
The BTC market is too small to be a hedge of any kind. But stability will be good especially for merchants and sellers using bitcoins.
Actually the MtGox price seems to be lagging atm. Even some of Gox's own currency markets are out performing the USD/BTC rates. To say nothing of quite a few other markets around the world.
With the dollar appreciating and flight from the euro, a stable USD/BTC might be an attractive hedge.
Right, and the same thing will happen to btc betties that happened to the franc. If a lot of people start using them as a hedge, the price will rise. Then people will be wanting to hold betty not only because they have a stable value...but because they have a rising value! ralley.
Actually the MtGox price seems to be lagging atm. Even some of Gox's own currency markets are out performing the USD/BTC rates. To say nothing of quite a few other markets around the world.
With the dollar appreciating and flight from the euro, a stable USD/BTC might be an attractive hedge.
Actually the MtGox price seems to be lagging atm. Even some of Gox's own currency markets are out performing the USD/BTC rates. To say nothing of quite a few other markets around the world.
As soon as enough traders become convinced it will not move, it will move.
Which direction?
I feel that people are becoming more confident now that the price is holding steady, and good news in the next couple weeks may spark a rally. Gut feeling.
for me, right now it is just "dead" and boring.
Wait, bitcoin is dead?? SELL SELL SELL. Then again, contrarian traders like myself have done very well on bitcoin recently. BUY BUY BUY.
This stability is quite impressive. Bravo bitcoin, bravo!
don't be fooled. "stable" also means that it counter-reacts to applied forces and balances back to its state before the event. in the last weeks, there was no force to the price - just look at the low volume! once (if ever) the volume rises again, we will see if it is stable. for me, right now it is just "dead" and boring.
this is boring as hell..mtgoxlive sucks these days..ah well back to porn for now
Wow, it hardly moved! Almost as if it's acting like a currency..
This stability is quite impressive. Bravo bitcoin, bravo!
Depends on the region.. In the Mt. Everest region, you'll need a few...
I've got muskox wool (Qiviuq). You'll only need one pair and your neighbors will be warm.
Maybe people are starting to realize that bitcoin can be traded for goods instead of USD or other fiat currencies.
How many alpaca socks can you use?Depends on the region.. In the Mt. Everest region, you'll need a few...
Maybe people are starting to realize that bitcoin can be traded for goods instead of USD or other fiat currencies.
How many alpaca socks can you use?
Maybe people are starting to realize that bitcoin can be traded for goods instead of USD or other fiat currencies. Hence the stability.
What makes matters worse is there's no real way to hedge against bitcoin volatility. Bitcoinica and its insane margin requirements doesn't count.
That Bitcoinica has high margin requirements and takes positions very cautiously is encouraging. The big problem with options in an unregulated market is getting paid when the counterparty takes a loss.Loans, bonds, options, and investments, all of which require payback, require enforcement to be viable. Anonymous finance only works for immediate transactions.
The main problem with the volatility is that it is a shallow market and it is not really tied to anything. Five buck Bitcoins, even at 21M BTC is still just $105M, well within reach of a single market maker. All the bots could do is make things worse. Again I say to the stability hawks, if a relatively stable Bitcoin exchange rate is what you desire it is going to require a 'capitalization' measured in the billions. Even if this is accomplished by bots it would still require sustained purchases of Bitcoin at ever higher exchange rates. That means real investment in the Bitocion economy, and no amount of gaming will make that happen.
What makes matters worse is there's no real way to hedge against bitcoin volatility. Bitcoinica and its insane margin requirements doesn't count. A market cap of billions could provide stability, but even a smaller market cap could be stable IF we had options trading on a regulated exchange to create hedges with. Oh, and the exchange rate wasn't $5 but more like $50.
Merchants could go long in the money puts and be secure knowing bitcoins they take in won't drop far enough to kill their margins. Miners could short calls to go long puts, locking in long term income and planning operations with time horizons measured in months or years instead of days. All sorts of stabilizing options (pardon the pun) become possible if you have reasonable margin requirements and a prayer of actually assigning your options.
If there are going to be very long flatline periods it will not be while Bitcoin is trading in the single digits, unless volume drops to zero, then it will not be much use to anyone.
Have to disagree. It *could* flatline with decent volume if the bots are the main traders. We've seen that before. If the market maker is bigger than the entire market then prices aren't going anywhere.
Also, "very long" is relative in bitcoin time. We're talking days to weeks here, not months to years.
Right now, if you look at the charts, we have a quadruple bottom (!!!) forming, with volume going steadily down and successively smaller highs. What does everyone make of this?
Your "quadruple bottom" is actually a trading range, with a slight negative bias. In order for this to be a reversal pattern it'd have to have a convincing breakout utterly smashing several resistance levels. If that happened I'd switch from bear mode to bull mode, like I've briefly done in the past.
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