Raystonn's BTC/USD Probability Forecast - page 4.

Raystonn

sr. member

Activity: 364

Merit: 250

Quote from: Raystonn on May 17, 2014, 02:29:52 PM

These regular forecasts will be based on all orders in the Bitstamp order book. I will track accuracy based on the percentages given and the market movement after the prediction.

For purposes of tracking profitability of the calls, I will assume we started with $1 and invested it completely based on the probability. If I show a 75% probability of going up and 25% going down, then the full amount of the virtual account is invested 75% long and 25% short. This effectively means the account is flat if the probabilities are 50% up and 50% down.

Raystonn

sr. member

Activity: 364

Merit: 250

Current price: $455.40

Forecast until my next post:
76.3% probability of going up.
23.7% probability of going down.

Raystonn

sr. member

Activity: 364

Merit: 250

Current price: $453.00

Forecast until my next post:
60.5% probability of going up.
39.5% probability of going down.

Raystonn

sr. member

Activity: 364

Merit: 250

These forecasts will be based on all orders in the Bitstamp order book.

I will track profitability by showing profits for 5 systems using these signals, starting at USD$1.00:
1) Holding 100% of the account long forever.
2) Trading 100% of the account long or short depending on which probability is greater than 50%.
3) Same as #2 but shorting is not allowed. Will go flat instead of short.
4) Trading 100% of the account long (up > 66.6%), short (down > 66.6%), or flat (neither is > 66.6%).
5) Same as #4 but shorting is not allowed. Will go flat instead of short.

-----------------

First forecast:

Current price: $448.69

Forecast until my next post:
81.9% probability of going up.
18.1% probability of going down.

Topic: Raystonn's BTC/USD Probability Forecast - page 4. (Read 3724 times)