Topic: Re: [AUCTION] 13Gh/s ASICMiner Block Erupter Blade. Starts @41btc - page 2. (Read 3002 times)

I'm proposing a BET, I'm not making him an offer. He says that the blade will reach ROI (return on investment) for sure in 8-10 months, I say NO WAY.

Let's consider "return on investment" as a revenue of aprox. +10% of what you invested. Thus, I bet that a 13GH/s blade deployed on Wednesday this week won't generate 50BTC till 19th April 2014. I send 10BTC to John K., he sends another 10BTC to John K. On April 2014th, we make the calculation, considering 95% uptime and 0.2 usd kw/h as electricity cost. If the blade generated at least 50BTC after electricity costs, he receives the 20BTC. If not, I get them.

He wasn't offering to buy it. He was offering to make a 10 BTC bet.

Yes. Obviously he will accept an offer of 25% of asking price from a douchebag JR member that obviously has absolutely no clue what blades are selling for here, through Asicminer or elsewhere. Thank you for your contribution.

That blade will never mine 50BTC in 10 months. Do you accept a 10BTC public bet, escrowed by John K.?

Saying that you will get into ROI for sure in 8-10 months is very misleading, in fact is a borderline scam.

No harsh feeling mate. I'm really sorry for your loss, I'm not joking.

Oh yeah, your faith in those companies delivering are insurmountable when evidence says exactly the opposite. That says a lot about you... How do you know that those companies won't be turning into another HUGE fail, failing to deliver all the chips til next year or til the coming ages? What does these FACTS say to you?

Extracted from: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.2392520


Take a seat and wait for your chips and Terahashes flooding the market... the delays are HUUUGE and well known by everybody. I'm talking about real ASIC mining NOW, not in the future. Anyone can make predictions, calculations, and self-fabricated assumptions like you are making, after all making assumptions is free. Delivering real products, FAST, is not.

If you want to engage in this kind of HIGHLY RELATIVE discussions (like difficulty, aprox. delivery dates, etc) then open a thread and lucubrate all you want. This is an auction, if you don't want to buy or bid, then please kindly get out of this place. Who choses to buy this blade is expected to have a minimum of pre-made calculations and to know which people is delivering for real evaluating the cost/opportunity. And that is how it is called:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opportunity_cost

And now... back to the topic, please

I am going to assume you are a complete newbie to mining and the blade was your first miner ever, so you are in good faith but simply do not understand what the change from GPUs to ASIC means in term of difficulty increase.

So: the bolded part of your reply is a delusion. That won't happen, and if you are so sure that you will get ROI in 8-10 months, I propose you an escrowed bet. I bet 10BTC that a 13GH/s blade won't be able to mine 50BTC in 10 months. Are you in?

The difficulty is currently increasing by aprox. 30% each 10 days. If the network would continue to grow at that pace, difficulty would go x9,000 in 10 months. Obviously that is unstainable and won't happen, the exponential growth will stop at some point and we will have a linear growth instead but still, even with a 13% increase each 12 days those blade won't ROI at all at those price.

I'm sorry, but it was very clear that those blades were NEVER going to break even, let's leave alone ROI (ROI means return of investment = to get profits - break even means recouping your investment).

Play with the calculator: http://bitcoinx.com/profit

The most important variable is "yearly profitability decline", which establishes how much will the difficulty grow in the next 12 months. If you insert 0.01, it means that difficulty will go x100 in 12 months. If you insert 0.1, it means difficulty will go x10 in the next year, etc.

Anyone inserting something higher than 0.02 in that variable is simply a clueless noob or a scammer. ASICs are a revolution that will make difficulty go AT LEAST x50 in the next year. And this is conservative. BFL didn't ship anything yet, ASICminer is in their initial stages of deployment, Bitfury didn't start to ship units, and only KNCminer plans to ship 1,000TH/s (2k Jupiter + 2k Saturn actually available in their order system). Now add to that the +200TH in Avalon chips.

You are seeing how difficulty is increasing during the last weeks and this is only the beginning. I'm sorry for your loss.

The reason why I am selling it is because I made a big investment (I bought the blade in BTC but paid them in € @100€/btc) and now I need some liquidity because of personal reasons, liquidity that I dont have cos I spent 2 salaries in this blade. Obviously the blade is not providing that liquidity since the mining is somewhat slow (0.3-0.4 btc/day right now).



Please stop being delusional. Like all the blade owners, I'm sure it will pay itself, but not as soon as I expected initially (4 months). Within 8-10 months you should get into ROI for sure. Thing is I don't control that parameters, nor I have that time cos I need to fix the car, pay my bills, etc. I need liquidity in my life NOW and that's all. If I manage to sell it, that btc's are returning into € ASAP.

Because he realized that mining he will never recoup what he paid for the blade, and wants to at least reach break even?

Pretty obvious, isn't it?

It's also called the "greater fool theory" (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greater_fool_theory)

Why sell after three weeks?