Real bitcoin market value after Mt. Gox

jonald_fyookball

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Core dev leaves me neg feedback #abuse #political

Quote from: bananas on February 28, 2014, 12:58:01 AM

The current value on the exchanges may be considered the market value as it is being sustained for now, but it is not the real market value. It is fake, referenced by a Mt. Gox fiction.

Mt. Gox had most of the transactions, value was defined by supposed offer and demand over there.

However Mt. Gox was a fraud, a ponzi and due to the previous two characteristics: a fictional market.

We don't have any idea of the real market value.

I know what you're getting at, but the fact of the matter is Gox didn't have MOST of the transactions
for a while...they used to be the biggest years ago, then they declined, and now they are bankrupt.

Over the last few months, based on news and market activity,
price adjusted from around 800 to around 630 today and that is the real market value...

You think Gox is going to linger for years? come on... the "sustaining"
that you are talking about is done... gox is gone, and $630 USD is what people are willing to buy and sell
a bitcoin for today.

Nagle

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Quote from: leopard2 on February 28, 2014, 12:05:33 PM

There is a market price right now, that prices in all known facts and expectations to the future. That is 550ish. Without the Gox issue it would be 1000+

.
No, the big runup was when, for a few months from roughly November 2013 though January 2014, Bitcoin was an easy, legal way to get money out of China, bypassing China's exchange controls. Once the People's Bank of China cracked down, that stopped, and prices slid back down. Still, they're over 5x what they were in October 2013. Unclear why.

The collapse of Mt. Gox doesn't seem to have affected the price of Bitcoin much at all.

Kazimir

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Quote from: bananas on February 28, 2014, 12:58:01 AM

Mt. Gox had most of the transactions,

Uhm, yeah, in 2011 they did. We live in 2014 now.

Quote

value was defined by supposed offer and demand over there.

BTC value on Gox, yes, perhaps. Not the BTC value in the real world.

Gox was already irrelevant for quite some time. Get over it.

AndBerg

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Quote from: CurbsideProphet on February 28, 2014, 01:05:17 PM

"Bitcoin will die when the US shuts it down"

"Bitcoin will crash when SilkRoad gets shutdown"

"Bitcoin will die when MtGox is shutdown"

Just another in a long line of FUD.

Right

CurbsideProphet

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"Bitcoin will die when the US shuts it down"

"Bitcoin will crash when SilkRoad gets shutdown"

"Bitcoin will die when MtGox is shutdown"

Just another in a long line of FUD.

QuestionAuthority

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You lead and I'll watch you walk away.

Gox was officially no longer in the game when BitPay stopped using them as the current rate for their business services.

June 20, 2013

"Effective immediately, BitPay has stopped using Mt. Gox for determining the exchange rate for our invoices."

Here's a wild idea.

Karpeles had the US Gov seize $5 mil and threaten to chase him down and eventually shove hot pokers up his ass at Guantanamo Bay for being instrumental in drug money laundering. He consults an attorney and they come up with the plan of claiming that he really has not done any business since 2011 because he's an incredible programmer fuckup and doesn't know how to hire good people to fix problems for him. He never visited this forum personally so he never heard of offline wallets or safety precautions. The attorney tells him the US Gov can't prosecute you if you were not really exchanging money. Wait a year or so, go bankrupt and claim the incident happened back in 2011. The US Gov will back off so no more hot poker up the ass threats. Hell, ten years from now if Bitcoin survives you can even spend some of the stolen Bitcoins!

BitOnyx

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Cryptocurrencies Exchange

Because of the way how bitcoin is created you can't just determine the value based on old days. When you see graph of price over recent months you can see it is nothing traditional way of thinking about market had encountered before. It is large variety of problems related to mining difficulty and speculation prices . Mining problems are easy to understand, speculation part is more unpredictable obviously. China is investing a lot, no wonder since they currency is probably more virtual then bitcoin (ok, I'm joking here Wink

but what is actual inflation of they currency ? weird, isn't it ). Everyone want to start argument, but people who should take biggest part in this discussion are bussy.

gollum

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In Hashrate We Trust!

Quote from: bananas on February 28, 2014, 12:58:01 AM

The current value on the exchanges may be considered the market value as it is being sustained for now, but it is not the real market value. It is fake, referenced by a Mt. Gox fiction.

Mt. Gox had most of the transactions, value was defined by supposed offer and demand over there.

However Mt. Gox was a fraud, a ponzi and due to the previous two characteristics: a fictional market.

We don't have any idea of the real market value.

Mate, that's the way the market works.
If you believe it's too cheap, you buy, if not you sell.

But don't say the market value is fake, the market price is always the sum of all trades that occur in a given moment, for whatever reasons.
Speculation and psychology is of course a huge part in the market volatility, but that's the way it is.

tins

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Quote from: proudhon on February 28, 2014, 12:09:45 PM

Quote from: ?? on ??

Quote from: bananas on February 28, 2014, 01:03:47 AM

Quote from: superduh on February 28, 2014, 01:00:58 AM

yes we do - look at the price of exchanges where the real bitcoins are located

Those prices are references to Mt. Gox, whopever would trade out of Mt. Gox would take their value as a reference.

What are you talking about? How are they "references to Mt. Gox"?

Gox is over. Kaput. Finito. It is now impossible to reference Gox in any way other than "the exchange that failed". There is no Gox exchange rate.

The market where people buy and sell bitcoins most certainly still exists. There are plenty of centralized exchanges still functioning as well as a few various other types of exchange (localbitcoins, OTC, FTF).

Nobody in the financial industry dealing with bitcoin has been referencing MtGox for many, many months. I've worked with SecondMarket, for example, and they have been adamant about avoiding Gox prices.

OP is bananas.

proudhon

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Quote from: ?? on ??

Quote from: bananas on February 28, 2014, 01:03:47 AM

Quote from: superduh on February 28, 2014, 01:00:58 AM

yes we do - look at the price of exchanges where the real bitcoins are located

Those prices are references to Mt. Gox, whopever would trade out of Mt. Gox would take their value as a reference.

What are you talking about? How are they "references to Mt. Gox"?

Gox is over. Kaput. Finito. It is now impossible to reference Gox in any way other than "the exchange that failed". There is no Gox exchange rate.

The market where people buy and sell bitcoins most certainly still exists. There are plenty of centralized exchanges still functioning as well as a few various other types of exchange (localbitcoins, OTC, FTF).

Nobody in the financial industry dealing with bitcoin has been referencing MtGox for many, many months. I've worked with SecondMarket, for example, and they have been adamant about avoiding Gox prices.

gog1

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come on, this is just some newbie making something up.

bitcoin is still running and exchanging into fiat currency by bitstamp, btc-e, and various markets.

AndBerg

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Quote from: go4nature on February 28, 2014, 11:52:36 AM

Now a days i am using http://preev.com/ to find the market value.

Looks good.

leopard2

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Huh?

There is a market price right now, that prices in all known facts and expectations to the future. That is 550ish. Without the Gox issue it would be 1000+

There was no huge drop today because the Gox bankruptcy was factored in, as well as all the other bad news.

Any stock price is determined just like that.

Now it will make a big difference if all these coins were stolen, or lost/destroyed. And whether the exchange ecosystem will become more reliable in the future.

go4nature

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Now a days i am using http://preev.com/ to find the market value.

jl2012

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Quote from: bananas on February 28, 2014, 12:58:01 AM

The current value on the exchanges may be considered the market value as it is being sustained for now, but it is not the real market value. It is fake, referenced by a Mt. Gox fiction.

Mt. Gox had most of the transactions, value was defined by supposed offer and demand over there.

However Mt. Gox was a fraud, a ponzi and due to the previous two characteristics: a fictional market.

We don't have any idea of the real market value.

You had your account in 2012 and obviously you are still thinking in a 2012-style. If gox has collapsed in 2012, then yes you may be correct. However, the trading volume of gox has became insignificant for several months. Major bitcoin payment processors like Bitpay took the price of bitstamp and btc-e as reference since last July.

tins

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Quote from: ?? on ??

Quote from: bananas on February 28, 2014, 01:21:47 AM

According to you Gox rate has been ginored for half a year which sounds legit. But since 2009 market value was being defined there. Don't you think it would take lonng to descontruct the fiction? I think so. It may never happen actually.

Yes, at one point Gox was the main Bitcoin exchange with most of the volume. That time is long gone.

There are many other places that you can buy or sell bitcoins and many people are doing this across many nations around the world every day. Suggesting that the exchange rate is still somehow based on a Gox fraud is ridiculous. There are many thousands of coins changing hands every day. Real coins being traded for real fiat (oxymoron there), real products, and real services. If the entire Bitcoin exchange rate was perpetuated by some Gox fraud, it would have ended the moment Gox closed shop. This market moves extremely fast, it would take hours to destroy the fiction.

Gox was an important part of the Bitcoin ecosystem. There is no denying that. Yet, they have been losing importance for a long time and now they are finished. The exchange rate may continue to fluctuate as this recent drama concludes, but every day it is going to have less impact on the market.

It had zero impact by the end (with the lone exception of the flash crash when they finally shut down for good).
Gox was showing btc/usd at $100 per bitcoin towards the end.
All the other exchanges had the real value (roughly $600 per btc).
Gox wax not a reflection of the true value in the end.
The market moved away from gox a long time ago.

I'm not sure why the OP doesn't comprehend.

Skoupi

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Skoupi the Great

Quote from: bananas on February 28, 2014, 01:18:52 AM

Quote from: Skoupi on February 28, 2014, 01:16:21 AM

Quote from: bananas on February 28, 2014, 01:05:29 AM

Quote from: dave3k on February 28, 2014, 01:03:27 AM

How much are people willing to sell for vs how much people are willing to pay = market price.
If people are willing to buy and sell at this price then that is the value.

Yes, but while it is the market value it is based on a fiction, can't be considered the real price.

What was the real price? Mt.Gox? And everything else is fiction?
Get yourself together mate.

No, Mt. Gox was a fiction. The others are based on a fiction. Get yourself english lessons.

Just go to wikipedia and search for "exchange" and all your questions will be answered.
Unfortunatelly for me is not so easy to learn english Cry

bananas

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Quote from: ?? on ??

Quote from: bananas on February 28, 2014, 01:13:51 AM

Quote from: ?? on ??

Quote from: bananas on February 28, 2014, 01:03:47 AM

Quote from: superduh on February 28, 2014, 01:00:58 AM

yes we do - look at the price of exchanges where the real bitcoins are located

Those prices are references to Mt. Gox, whopever would trade out of Mt. Gox would take their value as a reference.

What are you talking about? How are they "references to Mt. Gox"?

Gox is over. Kaput. Finito. It is now impossible to reference Gox in any way other than "the exchange that failed". There is no Gox exchange rate.

The market where people buy and sell bitcoins most certainly still exists. There are plenty of centralized exchanges still functioning as well as a few various other types of exchange (localbitcoins, OTR, FTF).

Gox is over, but the market continued from there. The reference values were already set, if i'm going to sell dollars out of Wallstreet i will not consider offer and demand where i'm going to sell it, i will ask for the wallstreet price, buyer will also consider fair the reference of Wallstreet. If Wallstreet was over today ou of nothing, one would still get their price as a reference tomorrow.

Gox's exchange rate has long been ignored because they haven't been a functional exchange for over half a year (I'm being generous here). Now their exchange rate is gone completely.

There is no "Gox reference value". Sorry.

The only value you can still get from Gox is learning an important lesson about the different between real bitcoins and Bitcoin IOUs.

According to you Gox rate has been ignored for half a year which sounds legit. But since 2009 market value was being artificially developed there. Don't you think it would take long to descontruct the fiction? I think so. It may never happen actually.

bananas

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Quote from: Skoupi on February 28, 2014, 01:16:21 AM

Quote from: bananas on February 28, 2014, 01:05:29 AM

Quote from: dave3k on February 28, 2014, 01:03:27 AM

How much are people willing to sell for vs how much people are willing to pay = market price.
If people are willing to buy and sell at this price then that is the value.

Yes, but while it is the market value it is based on a fiction, can't be considered the real price.

What was the real price? Mt.Gox? And everything else is fiction?
Get yourself together mate.

No, Mt. Gox was a fiction. The others are based on a fiction. Get yourself english lessons.

Skoupi

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Skoupi the Great

Quote from: bananas on February 28, 2014, 01:05:29 AM

Quote from: dave3k on February 28, 2014, 01:03:27 AM

How much are people willing to sell for vs how much people are willing to pay = market price.
If people are willing to buy and sell at this price then that is the value.

Yes, but while it is the market value it is based on a fiction, can't be considered the real price.

What was the real price? Mt.Gox? And everything else is fiction?
Get yourself together mate.

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