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Topic: Reality Check on Crypto (Read 576 times)

sr. member
Activity: 2436
Merit: 455
November 02, 2021, 02:36:51 AM
#68


Sometimes, this forum thinks that the rest of the world will flock to Bitcoin in droves because of its qualities.

Some people think that every potential user/investor will care about its decentralized features or its high value.

Well, it is not the case.

The people who go to BitcoinTalk are not the average investor: they are interested enough in crypto to make an account here.

It is not the posters you talk to, but the invisible lurkers who may be reading this very post.

Nowadays, people are here in bitcoin not because of its decentralized functionality but because it is a speculative asset that could gain them profit in either short term or long term. I believe there are only a few people that are here in crypto just for the sake of anonymity. Sure, they are here for that, but I doubt that's the sole reason. Perhaps we can consider those people who are not into KYC because there are still people who are uncomfortable with that. But I guess aside from that, their main reason is not to advocate decentralization, but to earn and generate income. Let's not be a hypocrite, shall we?

Also, investors and traders have a love-hate relationship with volatility. Why do I say so? Because volatility can either make or break your investment or trading strategy. When the volatility in favors with you, definitely you would celebrate. Otherwise, you'll regret, sulk, and be bitter about the outcome. It's just really a matter of what situation you are in and how volatility is affecting you. We have different perspective about it based on the current scenario we are in.

If you don't have the heart to invest and trade crypto, then do not enter. You have to have a critical thinking skills in order to survive and thrive. If there are any lurkers reading this that are still thinking and contemplating whether to do crypto or not, reassess your main purpose and your risk tolerance first before executing your decision. Be wise. Don't just follow the hype.
legendary
Activity: 2534
Merit: 1338
November 01, 2021, 11:17:01 AM
#67
It's historically not 5% per year, not even close.  The inflation rate over the last 11 years averages 2% per year, and that's including the large increase in 2021.  It's been remarkably stable despite the massive quantitative easing.  And even assuming we used your wrong number of 5% per year, that would still be vastly superior as a currency to one that regularly depreciates 10% in a day.  That's an unusable currency that doesn't allow for any type of long term planning because volatility is a terrible quality for a currency to have.  The inability to plan long term is a death knell for any economy.

Year    Annual Inflation Rate
2011       3.0%
2012       1.7%
2013       1.5%
2014       0.8%
2015       0.7%
2016       2.1%
2017       2.1%
2018       1.9%
2019       2.3%
2020       1.4%
2021       5.4%

Source:  https://www.usinflationcalculator.com/inflation/current-inflation-rates/

Historically inflation for the US has not been this high, but also keep in mind the growth of the US economy, spending, federal reserve liabilities, and ratio of debt to GDP.

The US economic numbers were released recently and the economy is growing at 2 percent with a 5 percent inflation rate. So there is not enough money being generated to even being close to paying off any debt. The currency is going to balloon, compound this with the current labor shortage that exists in the US due to generous unemployment benefits.

2021 was of course unique due to the pandemic so previous inflation numbers won't be good in predicting future inflation numbers because of the permanent economic ramifications of shutting down entire pillars of the economy.
This is why I think the pandemic changed the game forever, up until now the economic growth was still enough to disguise the fundamentals problems of the economies of the world, but now those problems have been accelerated by all the money governments had to print and the reduction on the economic activity they caused by their policies, so I do not think all of those jobs that were lost are coming back and when we add all the money that was given to the population for free then this is making the situation even worst.
legendary
Activity: 2338
Merit: 1124
October 31, 2021, 03:53:58 AM
#66

if crypto payments were available everywhere we would see it being used by the average person.
It is available everywhere except you mean awareness that few people in different countries have moreover the growth is increasing compared to 4 years ago. Cryptocreency cut to everyone and country except those who are fighting against it and limiting people from using it because they want to put their fiat first like China and they try to ban it. It is unstoppable to everyone reach only people in authority trying to limit the use.
This is the reason I feel that Vitalik's opinion may not need to remain true forever (I remember he was too confident about hardfork on bitcoin blockchain to scale but bitcoin adapted segwit instead). Crypto payments will be available to everyone in near future which means it will be substantially used by everyone regardless of they are liking the volatile nature or they love decentralized concepts.

What into I believe more is, even tier-1 country people are being served by traditional finance system decently, we cannot expect them not to adapt revolutionary new system. At least for a change people may prefer to try it. This is the point where Vitalik's opinion turns complete wrong.
hero member
Activity: 1498
Merit: 711
Enjoy 500% bonus + 70 FS
October 31, 2021, 02:58:21 AM
#65
The people who go to BitcoinTalk are not the average investor: they are interested enough in crypto to make an account here.
Yes of course, I'm not disputing the fact, because not everyone in bitcointalk is an investor, majority learn how to become an investor through the community of bitcointalk, and specifically the forum is meant to acquire the knowledge of bitcoin, and with lectures the community will render to you who are novice to crypto related transactions, you as well will be acquainted to cryptocurrencies generally, and during your investment they will not be difficulty again.
sr. member
Activity: 2366
Merit: 332
October 31, 2021, 02:21:32 AM
#64

if crypto payments were available everywhere we would see it being used by the average person.

It is available everywhere except you mean awareness that few people in different countries have moreover the growth is increasing compared to 4 years ago. Cryptocreency cut to everyone and country except those who are fighting against it and limiting people from using it because they want to put their fiat first like China and they try to ban it. It is unstoppable to everyone reach only people in authority trying to limit the use.
sr. member
Activity: 1400
Merit: 283
October 30, 2021, 03:20:31 PM
#63
for the most part what is stated in the presentation is understandable and logical, but the reality is that people are not also that so happy about using the current finical system set by the government or like filling their pockets with change and paper money, they do it because they have no choice and are forced to do it because shops and businesses or any other transactions are set to be done that way, but i am sure if they had an alternative they would change to using it, if crypto payments were available everywhere we would see it being used by the average person.
full member
Activity: 616
Merit: 161
October 30, 2021, 03:06:37 PM
#62
We that spend time on this forum, go on crypto Twiter or chat on various Telegram crypto groups, we tend to forget that we are in a bubble of sorts and that we are not the norm of the average investors, more an exception. And things like that will start to show more as crypto gets more widespread.
legendary
Activity: 2590
Merit: 1882
Leading Crypto Sports Betting & Casino Platform
October 30, 2021, 02:40:36 PM
#61
The reality is that bitcoin first appeared on the earth a decade and few more years ago on the earth. It's planning might have started way before that so that the inventor was busy coding the blockchain and it's logics. Ideally it started, and it never looked back to this date. The reality is that, there is more than trillions of dollars which are being spend on the blockchain and the enormous volume is driving the price of bitcoin to the new goal.

Now, what bunch of peeps think about the bitcoin does not matter here. If invisible reader is here to gain more knowledge about it, then read the above para twice and empty your bank into crypto before its too late.

The reality tells me, bitcoin is now way sophisticated asset than it was a year ago and it would far more lucid a year after this. So don't argue, because we would be just wasting the time and nothing else.
The idea started even before 2000's, maybe by satoshi himself, maybe someone who is totally stranger who just checked, but if you check the "e-money" world, we had many many periods before bitcoin that had emoney methods.

However, blockchain basically created something that is non-penetrable and also decentralized which gave its power. Look at usdt to see the difference, if the first coin was USDT then we wouldn't have this situation, we would have something that is totally different, why? Because it is centralized and pegged, then we wouldn't have crypto at all. The reason why bitcoin became this famous is the fact that it is decentralized and it is totally owned by the people and nobody else.

You are right, if there were no BTC there would be nothing, that is why many say that BTC is the King, he is the boss and that is why it is the total dependence of altcoins by BTC. I have seen many talk that altcoins can survive without BTC and no, it is impossible, it is like the example you give with USDT, USDT is not totally USD, it has a combination with crypto, because that was the last report made. .

However, currently BTC is reaching governments and banks with more force, USDT is only seen as one more stablecoin, I believe that the reality with crypto resides from that point of view, where it could have had many origins, but it really was created since Satoshi Nakamoto came out.
legendary
Activity: 2828
Merit: 1515
October 29, 2021, 03:19:42 PM
#60
It's historically not 5% per year, not even close.  The inflation rate over the last 11 years averages 2% per year, and that's including the large increase in 2021.  It's been remarkably stable despite the massive quantitative easing.  And even assuming we used your wrong number of 5% per year, that would still be vastly superior as a currency to one that regularly depreciates 10% in a day.  That's an unusable currency that doesn't allow for any type of long term planning because volatility is a terrible quality for a currency to have.  The inability to plan long term is a death knell for any economy.

Year    Annual Inflation Rate
2011       3.0%
2012       1.7%
2013       1.5%
2014       0.8%
2015       0.7%
2016       2.1%
2017       2.1%
2018       1.9%
2019       2.3%
2020       1.4%
2021       5.4%

Source:  https://www.usinflationcalculator.com/inflation/current-inflation-rates/

Historically inflation for the US has not been this high, but also keep in mind the growth of the US economy, spending, federal reserve liabilities, and ratio of debt to GDP.

The US economic numbers were released recently and the economy is growing at 2 percent with a 5 percent inflation rate. So there is not enough money being generated to even being close to paying off any debt. The currency is going to balloon, compound this with the current labor shortage that exists in the US due to generous unemployment benefits.

2021 was of course unique due to the pandemic so previous inflation numbers won't be good in predicting future inflation numbers because of the permanent economic ramifications of shutting down entire pillars of the economy.
legendary
Activity: 3542
Merit: 1965
Leading Crypto Sports Betting & Casino Platform
October 29, 2021, 12:46:36 PM
#59
You know, when Vitalik make presentations like that... he actually wants to identify the key areas where Crypto enthusiasts like ourselves has to focus on. He wants to change people's perspective on Crypto currency as a payment option and he also wants to boost Ethereum as a better choice than Bitcoin.

I am not sure when that presentation was done, but I gather it was before Bitcoin developers added the Lightning Network to Bitcoin. Yes, Bitcoin was not an attractive alternative currency before the Lightning Network... but as we are seeing in Venezuela.. it is kicking ass.  Wink
legendary
Activity: 3276
Merit: 2442
October 29, 2021, 11:53:36 AM
#58
https://preview.redd.it/otabpoea1qt71.jpg?width=960&crop=smart&auto=webp&s=522c4b015664975528b28ae3d241b5b0d5c047cb
Sometimes, this forum thinks that the rest of the world will flock to Bitcoin in droves because of its qualities.

Some people think that every potential user/investor will care about its decentralized features or its high value.

Well, it is not the case.

The people who go to BitcoinTalk are not the average investor: they are interested enough in crypto to make an account here.

It is not the posters you talk to, but the invisible lurkers who may be reading this very post.

You know what they say about opinions. Everybody has one. Just like an asshole.

This freak also has an opinion, it appears and his opinion isn't really much more important than yours.

Of course he will tell these because he is selling eth. Eth and Btc are competing with each other.

Not saying his words are false. It might be true.

I wonder what he thinks about shiba inu because right now it is kicking ass of both btc and eth.
legendary
Activity: 2534
Merit: 1338
October 29, 2021, 11:40:05 AM
#57

Some people think that every potential user/investor will care about its decentralized features or its high value.


Not specific to Bitcoin. People always trade decentralization for convenience until their chosen centralized system crashes. But what keeps the smarter of them from also hodling something less convenient that might still be there when the more convenient choices devalued through some accident?
Correct, this is not something that happens only to bitcoin it happens to everything that is less convenient than other options, for example lets take a look at smart phones, there is no doubt that smart phones are very useful tools but at the same time people have accepted to exchange that convenience for their privacy, there are phones that let you retain come level of privacy but do people care? Not really, as they are fine with that exchange, and something similar happens with fiat and bitcoin.
sr. member
Activity: 882
Merit: 403
October 28, 2021, 09:35:47 AM
#56
Quite interesting topic to talk about since we all are different and naturally, have different reasons/motives in coming and staying in this industry. But one way or another, as the new generation take over the gone, the world will eventually come to realize the importance of decentralisation and this industry that advocates it. Earning is a plus, yes. But the main point is that at some point, people will get sick of the outdated and buased system. Thus increasing the number of people using crypto and pushing its cause.
member
Activity: 189
Merit: 16
October 27, 2021, 09:47:10 AM
#55

Some people think that every potential user/investor will care about its decentralized features or its high value.


Not specific to Bitcoin. People always trade decentralization for convenience until their chosen centralized system crashes. But what keeps the smarter of them from also hodling something less convenient that might still be there when the more convenient choices devalued through some accident?
hero member
Activity: 2604
Merit: 816
🐺Spinarium.com🐺 - iGaming casino
October 27, 2021, 07:03:58 AM
#54
The thing that makes us optimistic is that the market is no longer dependent on bitcoin, look at USDT or other coin fixes, the transaction volume is greater than bitcoin, this makes the competition even better and if bitcoin drops then there is hope for altcoins that can help bitcoin.
The market still depends on the bitcoin market because if you check on the market when the bitcoin price is down, the altcoin will go down following the bitcoin market. Although USDT  transaction volume is greater than bitcoin, still, bitcoin leads the market and makes the altcoin follow on bitcoin.

What makes people come to bitcoin is the opportunity to make money at home and almost desperate to make money in this pandemic. They see bitcoin as a new way to make money, so they start learning bitcoin and know that bitcoin can be an asset or investment for them besides making money.
legendary
Activity: 2366
Merit: 1624
Do not die for Putin
October 27, 2021, 04:37:46 AM
#53

I am convinced that many of those people that are only looking for profits will come to appreciate the other characteristics of bitcoin and will eventually become to use it in their everyday lives.

I believe the set of generation of people that will see bitcoin as only an asset and not as investment opportunity or tool is yet not arrived. Almost every body that has bitcoin currently are doing so because of the investment value. Maybe back in the early years of bitcoin when it was used to buy pizza could have passed for just asset and hodling but currently it is invested on for profit taking.

I reckon that I would not be holding bitcoin if I though that it would not increase in value in the future, who would! However, bitcoin has some advantages to me when I have to move money from one country to another or when I need to have a reserve in case things go really wrong, I mean, at a catastrophic level of doom.

It is not my case, but I wonder if a refugee would rather stick a few diamonds up his ass to pass a border after fleeing or would he rather have bitcoin.
sr. member
Activity: 924
Merit: 255
October 26, 2021, 08:22:53 PM
#52
The thing that makes us optimistic is that the market is no longer dependent on bitcoin, look at USDT or other coin fixes, the transaction volume is greater than bitcoin, this makes the competition even better and if bitcoin drops then there is hope for altcoins that can help bitcoin.
Well, the point is that the crypto market is not easily extinguished or sinks, it will still be alive by the number of demands, which is increasing day by day, as well as certain projects related to certain Altcoins.
The world is increasingly focused on the internet, and cryptocurrency is one of the important roles related to this, especially Bitcoin, this will increasingly play a role and not only take advantage as an asset, but it looks like a global currency that can be transacted for many things in life.
legendary
Activity: 2534
Merit: 1338
October 26, 2021, 11:19:49 AM
#51

I am convinced that many of those people that are only looking for profits will come to appreciate the other characteristics of bitcoin and will eventually become to use it in their everyday lives.

I believe the set of generation of people that will see bitcoin as only an asset and not as investment opportunity or tool is yet not arrived. Almost every body that has bitcoin currently are doing so because of the investment value. Maybe back in the early years of bitcoin when it was used to buy pizza could have passed for just asset and hodling but currently it is invested on for profit taking.
And without a doubt you have a point as the majority of those that are getting into bitcoin right now are doing it for the profits they can possibly make, and taking into account that we are in the middle of a bull market then this is not really a surprise, but I really think many people will come to appreciate the characteristics of bitcoin and its decentralization especially since I really think that a massive economic crisis is basically inevitable at this point.
Yes. And with the rising inflation that most of the countries are currently facing right now, its no wonder that some countries are considering to adopt bitcoin as a currency so that inflation would not be felt totally by the people. So in this case, bitcoin is now starting to gain massive adoption not just for the sake of investment's profits but also as a currency that will eliminate inflation that most of the countries are suffering at the present.

However, with regards to its decentralization and volatility, i think it will also be address by the government once it will be a global currency in the future.
The volatility should decrease to a point with the increase in adoption, after all the reason volatility is so high is that right now the main use of bitcoin is as a speculative asset, however when this changes and bitcoin is mostly used as a currency then the price should become more stable and the power of the speculators should decrease, they will still hold a lot of power but it will not be as great as what we are witnessing right now.
hero member
Activity: 2926
Merit: 640
October 25, 2021, 07:41:19 AM
#50
The reality is that bitcoin first appeared on the earth a decade and few more years ago on the earth. It's planning might have started way before that so that the inventor was busy coding the blockchain and it's logics. Ideally it started, and it never looked back to this date. The reality is that, there is more than trillions of dollars which are being spend on the blockchain and the enormous volume is driving the price of bitcoin to the new goal.

Now, what bunch of peeps think about the bitcoin does not matter here. If invisible reader is here to gain more knowledge about it, then read the above para twice and empty your bank into crypto before its too late.

The reality tells me, bitcoin is now way sophisticated asset than it was a year ago and it would far more lucid a year after this. So don't argue, because we would be just wasting the time and nothing else.
The idea started even before 2000's, maybe by satoshi himself, maybe someone who is totally stranger who just checked, but if you check the "e-money" world, we had many many periods before bitcoin that had emoney methods.

However, blockchain basically created something that is non-penetrable and also decentralized which gave its power. Look at usdt to see the difference, if the first coin was USDT then we wouldn't have this situation, we would have something that is totally different, why? Because it is centralized and pegged, then we wouldn't have crypto at all. The reason why bitcoin became this famous is the fact that it is decentralized and it is totally owned by the people and nobody else.
full member
Activity: 1162
Merit: 106
October 24, 2021, 05:48:23 AM
#49
The thing that makes us optimistic is that the market is no longer dependent on bitcoin, look at USDT or other coin fixes, the transaction volume is greater than bitcoin, this makes the competition even better and if bitcoin drops then there is hope for altcoins that can help bitcoin.
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