Reason for bitcon flash drop. - page 2.

Coin_trader

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Quote from: davis196 on October 29, 2021, 01:42:53 AM

A financial derivative(like the ETF mentioned above) cannot bring the Bitcoin price down.
Bitcoin futures are just placing a bet about the future Bitcoin price.That doesn't mean that the BTC futures have any direct influence over the price.Having lots of Bitcoin shorting creates some expectations that the future Bitcoin price might be lower than the current BTC price,but that doesn't mean that those expectations will become reality.
The current BTC price drop is caused mostly by the hodlers and traders selling their BTC and taking the profits.This means that they don't think that bull run will continue towards 70K USD,so they are selling now,before the price drops.

Technically speaking you're right and agree to your statement 100%. But there's always a reason behind this flash crash. I don't believe in coincidence since this flash crash or pump always everytime a bitcoin option contracts are closed to expire.

This is just my theory and might be happening, Some group of whales bet on ETF while holding Bitcoin at the same time, They will manipulate the price of Bitcoin by giving a buy/sell pressure on exchange which will result for exchange triggering to sell-off as a reaction. They timing it so that they can gain on there ETF during its closing. Doing this kind of manipulation is safe for them since crypto exchange is not fully regulated and there's no way to verify that they are the one doing this manipulation. This is the common scenario on a volatile crypto market so no one will gonna suspect on this kind of dirty job.

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I am not getting exactly why and how ETF could dump Bitcoin price instead of pulling up? Are you guys why expecting that Bitcoin should only pump and shouldn't dump ever? Bitcoin price is driven by the community and investors. So if the investor thinks they need cash out then there would increase sell pressure which will dump Bitcoin price. It's the natural game of Bitcoin volatility. We shouldn't much worry about such as small dump where the price almost doubled from last few months.

mk4

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Quote from: Kasabus on October 29, 2021, 09:34:44 AM

Bear ETF, never heard of this before but if this is to bet against the future of Bitcoin, then it will not certainly win since the majority of investors are bullish in long term for bitcoin.

Oh sweet summer child, if only that was actually the case. For every level-headed investor that's long-term bullish on bitcoin, there are probably a dozen of inexperienced "investors" that would immediately dump their bitcoin the second their sights land on some negative news.

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Quote from: stadus on October 28, 2021, 10:15:19 PM

the dropped was may cause by long term investors trying to cash out for profit

I consider that is why the bitcoin flash drop and when this happens, people see the price can drop too far so they follow the price movements by selling their bitcoin. But then, the support can lift the price, although it could not move fast to back to the current price before. The bitcoin market will be like that and sometimes, we will see a drop in the price but we do not have to panic because the price will be back to the high price by increasing fast or slowly. You need just to prepare yourself and be ready for any situation and conditions with bitcoin.

Kasabus

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Bear ETF, never heard of this before but if this is to bet against the future of Bitcoin, then it will not certainly win since the majority of investors are bullish in long term for bitcoin. An expert once said that if you want to be a millionaire, allocate a portion of your savings into bitcoin, and I take that advice as a recipe for success, so whatever platforms would operate to bet against the bullish future of bitcoin, it will not succeed.

Short-term price movement does not significantly affect the future of bitcoin, sometimes it's just a way to scare the weak hands and if they dump, whales will eventually buy those discounted Bitcoins.

Ararbermas

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Quote from: stadus on October 28, 2021, 10:15:19 PM

According to this article Bitcoin price plunge wipes hundreds of billions from global cryptocurrency markets
, the dropped was may cause by long term investors trying to cash out for profit, but one thing that coincides with the timing is the Direxion Bitcoin Strategy Bear ETF which is betting against the success of bitcon.

Here's the exact text from the article.

Quote

What caused the drop in Bitcoin price?

The crash is partly driven by long-term holders selling at a high to take home profits, according to blockchain data. That’s typical following a price spike.

But it also coincided with financial company Direxion filing for a new bitcoin exchange traded fund (ETF) that would bet against the future price of the crypto.

It will be called the Direxion Bitcoin Strategy Bear ETF, according to its filing with America’s Securities and Exchange Commission.

Is this a hindrance to the success of bitcoin in the future?

How and why?

well i can say now that its not surprising elon musk saying we must hold because perhaps he forgot to set his take profit. Lol imagine waiting for bitcoin to go up more because you want to implement your exit strategy wherein to manipulate the price as well but unfortunately someone do it for you. Grin

let's just sell guys it's over obviously.. Much better to wait for another time to buy. Alts is pumping right now maybe a good idea.

franky1

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im guessing this is about the small event of the binance.US recently

..
in actual news. this was an order error by one investor on one orderbook of one exchange. it did not affect the bitcoin price over all.

also to note. the market cap of bitcoin is not a real money number. its a multiplication of a price estimate of a single btc. that is all. there is no real money backing the market cap stat. its just an empty number.
so no.. "hundreds of billions" were not wiped from the market

and no it was not triggered by some ETF thing. it was just a bad number entry which a [whale] guy put into his bot to sell down to $8k rather then $58k

sunsilk

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What I know is that there's an option that's about to expire or did it expired already. But in this highly volatile market, no one really has the data of the reason of the sudden drop.

It's a flash drop because we've met a new ATH but we're still up and better. And whenever there's a quick drop, it's just people taking profits and when there's a pump, there's a news that encourages everybody to buy.

People would assume that everyone is selling their bitcoin to buy some pumping meme coins.

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Quote from: mk4 on October 28, 2021, 11:28:41 PM

You've been here since 2015, you should know by now to not read into such exaggerated articles. "Plunges", yea, down $6k literally after we went 2x since the beginning of the year.

Yup, its still over 60K which is still a good price when we compare where we are in the past few months and its unimaginable amount from ots last lowest low of 2020. These are such articles created for attention seeking and nothing more with such kind of things we are creating panic among the newbies.

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Quote from: kryptqnick on October 29, 2021, 06:33:44 AM

There was a significant change in the price, that's true. But does the reason truly matter if the price corrected itself in a matter of hours? Some people perhaps sold a lot of bitcoins, and the price globally changed from $61.3k to $58.5k fast. But in a matter of hours it went to $62k, and has been fluctuating above $60k ever since. I believe it's not a big deal that flash drops happen, as long as the situation changes rather fast. It's good news that the market pushes back, and does so successfully. And media are using these short-term events to spread FUD about Bitcoin and about cryptos, which is unfair.

As long as Bitcoin doesn't become too overvalued or too undervalued, fluctuations in the price are perfectly natural. If the price goes down 10%, then there is a good opportunity to buy Bitcoins again. Another interesting fact is that the price tends to go down when there's bad news (the geopolitical situation, Bitcoin adoption in emerging markets, Chinese market, etc) and goes up when there's good news (Bitcoin adoption in developed economies, or the launch of new Bitcoin futures-based ETF). This causes a lot of volatility, but that's part of the character of Bitcoin.

kryptqnick

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There was a significant change in the price, that's true. But does the reason truly matter if the price corrected itself in a matter of hours? Some people perhaps sold a lot of bitcoins, and the price globally changed from $61.3k to $58.5k fast. But in a matter of hours it went to $62k, and has been fluctuating above $60k ever since. I believe it's not a big deal that flash drops happen, as long as the situation changes rather fast. It's good news that the market pushes back, and does so successfully. And media are using these short-term events to spread FUD about Bitcoin and about cryptos, which is unfair.

davis196

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A financial derivative(like the ETF mentioned above) cannot bring the Bitcoin price down.
Bitcoin futures are just placing a bet about the future Bitcoin price.That doesn't mean that the BTC futures have any direct influence over the price.Having lots of Bitcoin shorting creates some expectations that the future Bitcoin price might be lower than the current BTC price,but that doesn't mean that those expectations will become reality.
The current BTC price drop is caused mostly by the hodlers and traders selling their BTC and taking the profits.This means that they don't think that bull run will continue towards 70K USD,so they are selling now,before the price drops.

Kemarit

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If it affected the market, then it will be short term. And as far as I know, those whales doesn't buy directly a bitcoin, they are not trading bitcoin per se.

Maybe it's just a coincidence that this long term holder suddenly dumps to cause the market to go down. But here we are, still above $61,000 so the effect is minimal. And on the contrary, it might be good for others to enter the picture again. So the answer is No, it won't be a hindrance, we might just consider it as normal part of the market now with this ETF instruments.

OcTradism

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Exchanges and whales control games. They have data on what price cohorts are existing in Bitcoin investors and what price range has most investors to participate in.

They know when open positions in Future and Leverage tradings are soaring too high. Long squeeze has happen and when it happens, you will receive some news or fud to legalize the crash. I don't believe it is real reason, just tip of iceberg and real reasons are in depth of the iceberg that most of newbie investors don't know.

pooya87

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Bitcoin market is sometimes pretty weird and certain movements are hard to explain. It is just market participant behavior. This was one of them.

Quote

The crash is partly driven by long-term holders selling at a high to take home profits, according to blockchain data.

Everything in this statement is wrong.

First of all in bitcoin market we never call a "15%" drop (the from $67k to $56k) a "crash" it is categorized under corrections. A crash is when price drops at least 30% (meaning if it had dropped down to $47k which it obviously didn't). Not to mention that price jumped back up which shows that it was an unnatural drop otherwise price remained low.

Secondly this statement is contradictory itself! "Long term holder" is not someone who sells right as the price is starting to rise. The "short term traders" are the ones selling when price rises and it makes no sense for them to sell when we set a new ATH. They ALWAYS sell when we reach the previous ATH meaning they should have sold when price surpassed $60k not $7k later. This is the weird part I told you about.

Finally you can't make this conclusion based on "blockchain data". When you look at the blockchain you can NEVER figure WHERE the coins are going or WHY. Just because some coins moved it doesn't mean they were sold even if you think the destination is an exchange.

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It was merely a coincidence. I don't think the two were related, at all. Will it become a hindrance? In what particular way? But, overall, I don't think so.

I doubt an external financial product which makes people bet against Bitcoin would be successful. There could only be one reason for betting against Bitcoin and that's making profit on your trades. On the other hand, there are so many reasons for buying Bitcoin. A rising price value is just one of them. Protection against government monetary abuses, inflation, seizure, censorship, and so on are another.

mk4

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You've been here since 2015, you should know by now to not read into such exaggerated articles. "Plunges", yea, down $6k literally after we went 2x since the beginning of the year.

NotATether

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Quote from: Fundamentals Of on October 28, 2021, 10:52:45 PM

No, I cannot imagine how a Bitcoin ETF could possibly bring down Bitcoin. Are they going to buy a lot and then dump them all at once to pull the market down? That's still pushing the price up before pulling it down. It is basically the same.

It's the kind of ETF where it goes up whenever BTC goes down.

It's not necessarily a 1:1 relationship, as it's possible for the ETF to surge to some higher value first without a corresponding drop in the BTC price.

Fundamentals Of

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No, I cannot imagine how a Bitcoin ETF could possibly bring down Bitcoin. Are they going to buy a lot and then dump them all at once to pull the market down? That's still pushing the price up before pulling it down. It is basically the same.

Also, Bitcoin's success does not necessarily depend on its price. The price is just one aspect of Bitcoin.

This particular ETF is going to fail if its goal is just to bring down Bitcoin and is made apparent before it is even approved.

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Quote from: stadus on October 28, 2021, 10:15:19 PM

Is this a hindrance to the success of bitcoin in the future?

No. An ETF betting against bitcoin may add volatility, but in the long run bets against strong projects lose. It happens in the crypto world and in the stock market.

On the other hand, look how long the flash crash has lasted, we are already a bit above the price before the supposed "crash", which I would call small dip.

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