Topic: Red Cards in Football and what they do to the odds and the outcome (Read 636 times)

Not a lot of red cards in general (none in FRA1 and NED1 since last post even) and only 4 before halftime.

Sheffield Utd - Newcastle
Red Card: Newcastle in 45th minute, score 0-0
Final Score: 1-0

Sheffield got their first win this season with this red card for Newcastle. It needed a penalty for them to score, but a win is a win. Odds probably weren't great considering the pre-match odds.

Fulham - Chelsea
Red Card: Fulham in 44th minute, score 0-0
Final Score: 0-1

Chelsea were already huge pre-match favourites, so the odds were super low after the red card, but they managed to win. Took them until 78th minute to score the lead though...

Juventus - Sassuolo
Red Card: Sassuolo in 45th+2 minute, score 0-0
Final Score: 3-1

Another one with very small odds and Sassuolo would have given us a good scare, because they managed to equalize being one man down and Juve only scored the lead again in 82nd minute.

Torino - Spezia
Red Card: Spezia in 8th minute, score 0-0
Final Score: 0-0

Torino were solid pre-match favourites, but failed to take advantage of this very early red card.

---

Despite going 3-1 you would most likely have gone breakeven only, because of poor odds. On top of that you were in acute danger of mutliple heart attacks with Juve/Chelsea doing so poor even one man up.

I will put this on break for the time being, until I find a new angle to tackle games with red cards.

There were not that many red cards since the last update and even fewer that match our criteria. And those that did weren't very "good" for our test.

Benevento - Milan
Red Card: Milan in 33rd minute, score 0-1
Final Score: 0-2

Milan held onto the lead and even scored another one shortly after halftime. Benevento had a missed penalty, but this would only have been the 1-2. If they didn't miss, this could have maybe won, but it didn't^^

Osasuna - Alaves
Red Card: Osasuna in 8th (!) minute, score 0-0
Final Score: 1-1

Such an early red card and Alaves couldn't take advantage of it. Osasuna even scored the lead, which Alaves could only equalize with a penalty.

---

So we are now at 7-5 Probably the other way round is more profitable

Time for a little update, with all these midweek games and breaks, it's a bit hard to keep up with things

Juventus - Fiorentina
Red Card: Juventus in 18th minute, score 0-1
Final Score: 0-3

Odds must have been quite good for Fiorentina to hold on to the lead - Juventus was ~1.35 pre-match -  and they sealed the win with two more goals later in the game.

Monaco - St. Etienne
Red Card: Monaco in 35th minute, score 1-2
Final Score: 2-2

Hmm, Monaco scored the equalizer right after halftime and then defended this result till the end, not good.

Aston Villa - Crystal Palace
Red Card: Aston Villa in 45th minute, score 1-0
Final Score: 3-0

And another loss If I would have followed this game, I surely would have placed a bet against Villa, since this is normally a very good spot. Glad I didn't follow, saved some money.

---

7-3 since I started concentrating on the first half red cards. With odds being generally low-ish, I think this would have resulted in an overall loss so far. But lets keep on observing things.

Some games to catch up

Roma - Torino
Red Card: Torino in 14th minute, score 0-0
Final Score: 3-1

After this early red card, there could be only one winner. Roma was already huge odds-favourite going into the game, so after the red card, the odds must have been ultra low (didn't check). Nevertheless another "win".

---

Osasuna - Villareal
Red Card: Osasuna in 19th minute, score 0-1
Final Score: 1-3

I took my chances here, but the odds were pretty poor tbh and I sweated a bit after Osasuna made it 1-2 with 20min to go.

---

Brighton - Sheffield Utd
Red Card: Sheffield in 40th minute, score 0-0
Final Score: 1-1

This is iirc the first time, where it did go wrong. And I lost money, since I got involved for what I thought an ok-ish 1.55 (pre-match they were 1.9x). But Sheffield was able to score the lead in second half then and Brighton was only able to equalize late. You can't win them all and if this doesn't happen all too often, I am still hopeful

---

West Brom - Aston Villa
Red Card: West Brom in 36th minute, score 0-1
Final Score: 0-3

Didn't check the odds after the red card, but I guess they were around 1.15 maybe. Villa took some time to seal the game (84th and 88th minute), but another win.

---

This Brighton loss made me doubt things a bit and with Roma, Villareal and Villa being super low after the red cards, this would have been a loss overall.

There were no red cards in first half on the weekend, but in the midweek games we had 3 of them so far and every time the strategy would have worked.

Real Madrid - Athletic Bilbao
Red Card: Bilbao in 13th minute, score 0-0
Final Score: 3-1

Odds were probably not good for Real after the red card considering they were already 1.6x pre-match fav, but in the end Real won. Bilbao managed to equalize one man down though....not good for your heart

Monaco - Lens
Red Card: Monaco in 23rd minute, score 0-1
Final Score: 0-3

This is probably not super interesting, since Lens was already leading when the red card occured, but would have won easily.

Stade Rennais - Olympique Marseille
Red Card: Marseille in 36th minute, score 0-1
Final Score: 2-1

Here I actually got involved and played 1X at halftime, because I thought this is a good spot - the best spot imo; i.e. the first half red-carded away team leading. After the 1-1 in 63rd minute, Marseille was @10+ then and you could easily hedge if you wanted.

Quite some interesting red cards this weekend, to shed more light into this enigma.

England

West Brom - Crystal Palace
Red Card: West Brom in 34th minute, score 1-1
Final Score: 1-5

First half red card = back the team one man up to win/equalize. It worked again, Crystal Palace totally dominated the second half, scoring 4 unanswered.

Spain

Levante - Getafe
Red Card: Getafe in 7th minute, score 1-0
Final Score: 3-0

This one was in first half as well, but Levante was already leading, taking nicely advantage as the game went on and securing an easy win. Getafe got another red card in 77th minute, when it was 3-0. Pretty unusual setup all in all, so something to forget fast.

---

Alaves - Real Sociedad
Red Card: Alaves in 60th minute, score 0-0
Final Score: 0-0

Second half red card = lay next goal for the team one man up. Worked here as well, Alaves were able to defend the result until the final whistle.

Italy

Roma - Sassuolo
Red Card: Roma in 41st minute, score 0-0
Final Score: 0-0

This time this strategy (Sassuolo win) wouldn't have worked, but it can't work every time, we are just looking for value.

---

Crotone - Napoli
Red Card: Crotone in 50th minute, score 0-1
Final Score: 0-4

Lay next goal strategy would have failed here as well. There is of course a huge difference in quality between these teams and Napoli is a good counter-attack team, but difficult to spot/decide when to better not use this strategy^^

Germany

Hertha - Union
Red Card: Union in 23rd minute, score 0-1
Final Score: 3-1

First half red card strategy striked again and I actually took advantage of my observations in this game, netting me a nice profit.

---

---

Going forward I will concentrate on the first half red cards and check that strategy each round. To get a bigger sample size faster, I will add FRA1 and NED1.
The lay next goal strategy I will leave aside, since I don't think there is that much value and it's very hard to get it right, i.e. when to use it and more importantly when not

Red card will definitely have impact on a match if either team works harder, re-strategize, doesn't work harder or doesn't re-strategize

The team down by one player would usually go on defensive, depending on the position of the red carded player though.
With my little understanding of football/soccer, I would use more players that can defend & attack if my better/best striker is red-carded. Or I'll strengthen my defense with more defenders if my better/best defender is red carded.

Another rather boring weekend in terms of red cards. With this small sample size I did actually get a better feel by now and was able to take advantange of my observations in a game not mentioned here. I wanted to lay Elche to win at HT as well, but then got distracted and by the time I got back to the game, Cadiz already had scored the equalizer. Too bad.

These second half red cards are still hard to figure out properly (laying next goal does work imo, but it's risky and you would have to hedge); the red cards in first half are "easy", only problem is, that they don't come by very often

England

No red cards this round.

Spain

Elche - Cadiz
Red Card: Elche in 45+4th minute, score 1-0
Final Score: 1-1

This is one game from the lesson we learned ealier this thread and it would have worked out again. Elche were around 2.00 to win at halftime and as expected they weren't able to hold on to that lead and Cadiz scored the equalizer in second half.

---

Celta Vigo - Granada
Red Card: Celta Vigo in 98th minute, score 3-1
Final Score: 3-1

Late red card, no impact.

Italy

Benevento - Juventus
Red Card: Juventus in 97th minute, score 1-1
Final Score: 1-1

Late red card, no impact.

Germany

Wolfsburg - Bremen
Red Card: Bremen in 80th minute, score 4-3
Final Score: 5-3

Kind of expected for Wolfsburg to score another goal, when Bremen was pushing to score the 4-4, but it took until 95th minute. So this is not a red one to me.

---

Mainz - Hoffenheim
Red Card: Hoffenheim in 80th minute, score 1-1
Final Score: 1-1

10+ minutes are really short to have any impact, because a red card at this late stage doesn't change a lot. The red-carded team will just park the bus for some minutes with 10 players and it's not easy for any team to score then. This could be green.

Good weekend for the red-carded teams. The lay next goal strategy would have worked very well. There were no red cards in first half, so we couldn't underline the lesson we learned two weeks ago.

England

Aston Villa - Brighton
Red Card: Brighton in 91st minute, score 1-2
Final Score: 1-2

Late red card, no impact.

---

Leeds - Arsenal
Red Card: Arsenal in 51st minute, score 0-0
Final Score: 0-0

Arsenal did very well with one man down and should maybe even be a bit disappointed with not getting all 3 points - the chances were there. But they were at least not conceding, which would have resulted in a profit in this one.

Spain

Eibar - Getafe
Red Card: Eibar in 88th minute, score 0-0
Final Score: 0-0

Late red card, no impact.

Italy

Udinese - Genoa
Red Card: Genoa in 97th minute, score 1-0
Final Score 1-0

Late red card, no impact.

---

Napoli - Milan
Red Card: Napoli in 65th minute, score 1-2
Final Score: 1-3

Napoli defended the 1-2 quite successful until 95th minute, when Milan scored the 1-3 in the end, which is kind of expected then (if Napoli isn't able to make it 2-2^^). Laying next goal Milan would have been a good bet, but this doesn't go green neither red.

Germany

Mönchengladbach - Augsburg
Red Card: Augsburg in 66th minute, score 1-0
Final Score: 1-1

Augsburg was able to score the equalizer as huge pre-match underdog and being one man down. The goal itself was a bit lucky, but doesn't matter, this would have been a super valuable spot.

Teams can also substitute players to take advantage of the other team getting a red card. Such as a defender getting a red card, then the other team might put in a midfielder or winger to further frustrate them. But a trend I noticed in the matches you listed, is that the red carded team is the one substituting like crazy instead. See for example Cagliari - Sampdoria and Alaves - Barcelona. This can’t be applied to Premier League games because those don’t have as many substitutions per game as other leagues.

Pretty uneventful weekend overall.

England

Everyone behaved well over the weekend, no red cards.

Spain

Barcelona - Betis
Red Card: Betis in 60th minute, score 2-1
Final Score: 5-2

The red card resulted in a penalty to make it 3-1 and Betis actually was the next to score then. Lay Barca next goal would have worked, though you must be very brave to actually place such a bet in such a game. But there are these people, so I'll make this green^^

---

Real Sociedad - Granada
Red Card: Real Sociedad in 86th minute, score 2-0
Final Score: 2-0

Red card came late, when game was decided, so uninteresting.

---

Levante - Alaves
Red Card: Alaves in 34th minute, score 0-1
Final Score: 1-1

One should maybe bet on red card in games with Alaves - in 4 of their last 5 games there was one^^ Levante scored the equalizer in second half, but nothing more then. Another example where a red card in first half is too much of a disadvantage. So lesson #1 learned from this thread: Always bet against a team, that gets a red card in first half.

Italy

Cagliari - Sampdoria
Red Card: Sampdoria in 40th minute, score 0-0
Final score: 2-0

Cagliari nicely took advantage, see the lesson from above

---

Torino - Crotona
Red Card: Crotone in 87th minute, score 0-0
Final Score: 0-0

Late red card again and it's not hard to defend a 0-0 for some minutes even with one man down.

Germany

No red cards this round.

---

International break now and we will be back in 2 weeks and see, if there are some more lessons to be learned.

Yesterday's match when Barca was held by Alaves draw even though the opposing player got a red card in the 60th minute, for some reason Barca's game did not improve even though playing with the team that was hit by the red card, in the remaining 40 minutes of the match Barcelona was only able to score one goal through Griezman's shot. Lately, there have been many bad results obtained by Barcelona after losing to Real Madrid in the El Clasico match. Not to mention that there is a bankruptcy issue that befell Barcelona if there is no reduction in player salaries, it is predicted that in 2021 Barca will go bankrupt.

Busy times for the refs this week and a lot of players will have some rest next weekend.

England

Wolverhampton - Crystal Palace
Red Card: Crystal Palace in 86th minute, score 2-0
Final score: 2-0

Too late to have any impact.

Spain

Loads of red cards in Spain this round

Alaves - Barca
Red Card: Alaves in 62nd minute, score 1-0
Final Score: 1-1

Equalizer for Barca came instantly after the red card. Would have been interesting to see the odds after 1-1 and then maybe laying Barca next goal. Did anyone watch the markets and saw the odds ?

---

Celta Vigo - Real Sociedad
Red Card: Celta Vigo in 93rd minute, score 1-4
Final Score: 1-4

Late red card, no impact and game was decided already.

---

Granada - Levante:
Red Card: Granada in 16th minute, score 1-0
Final score: 1-1

Very early red card and Leveante took advantage of it and made it 1-1 in first half then already. But after that, Granada successfully defended the draw. From my observations there is really a huge difference, if you get the red card in first or second half. Iirc there was no team able to defend the result with a red card in first half. But at least Granada kept a clean sheet for 56+ minutes after the 1-1.

---

Valencia - Getafe
Red Card(s): Valencia in 56th minute, score 1-0 and Getafe in 98th minute, score 1-2
Final Score: 2-2

Now this is an interesting one Getafe took advantage and scored two to turn the game around, though only in 87th and 94th minute. They then got a red card themselves and Valencia scored the 2-2 via penalty in 100th minute, lol. Not sure if this penalty was caused by the red card, but such games are a traders dream. Though not very interesting for this "study", since this game was so unique and you won't find anything like that again in the next 500 games.

Italy

Roma - Fiorentina
Red Card: Fiorentina in 88th minute, score 2-0
Final score: 2-0

Nothing to report here.

---

Verona - Benevento
Red Card: Benevento in 73rd minute, score 2-1
Final Score: 3-1

This is a scenario we had quite often already. The favourite and/or home team takes advantage of the strength in numbers and scores another goal, while the red-carded team pushes being one goal down.

Germany

Hoffenheim - Union Berlin
Red Card: Hoffenheim in 58th minute, score 0-0
Final Score: 1-3

The only green one for this weekend. The red card resulted in a penalty for Union and laying them to score the next goal would have resulted in a profit (as would have laying them to win and then hedge), since Hoffenheim scored the equalizer in 80th minute. Union went on to win the game with two late goals, but we would have been out of the markets by then already

---

Another bad week for our red-carded teams. I more and more think, that it's really not worth to do any bets in favour of the red-carded teams. But otoh I also think it's not worth to back the other team, since the odds are often poor-ish. Maybe the markets in these games are already kind of perfect and there is no value to be found

Well. the difference between Barca and Ferencvaros is so huge, you will find something similar only in domestic cup games Barca could also beat them playing with only 9 players for 90min I guess.

I have no idea what this thread will lead to; if I will be able to find any pattern or angle to extract some profits out of the games with red cards. Every game and every league is unique and I chose the four biggest leagues to start this journey and monitor things to get a better feel. These teams in these leagues are quite competitive (well, Schalke ) and well known, so you a) get a good picture in general and b) it's easier for other users to follow.

But the sample size is still so tiny, that for the moment I am still just collecting data and not make any assumptions. Laying next goal for the not-red-carded team could be valuable I think, but you would have to take profits on the run, i.e. hedge inplay. It can take some time in the game until the advantage of having one player more finally works out, but super hard to get it right with hedging. So lay next goal, hedge a bit after 10min, a bit more after 10min etc. could work. Doing something in the 1X2 market doesn't look too promising from what I saw until now, some side markets are a better approach maybe.

And once there is some confidence and pattern in these 4 leagues, I might look for CL, EL, lower leagues etc. But thats a long way to go

You can include the red cards from UEFA Champions League games to see how red cards bring down bigger teams playing against each other.

Up to now, there was only one red card obtained in this season's UEFA match, it was in Barcelona vs Ferencvaros on matchday 1. Barca got the red card at the 68 minute mark but by then the match was already 3-0, Ferencvaros couldn't score any goals even with a crippled Barca team, except for the penalty they got at 70 minutes. (many, many yellow cards for Ferencvaros though  )

Barcelona actually scored two more goals after the red card. Crazy right? But that's understandable because it was a defender who was taken out of the game, their attack was untouched.

Another boring weekend with basically no new insights

England

Southampton - Everton
Red Card: Everton in 72nd minute, score 2-0
Final score: 2-0

I watched that game and Southampton was happy with just defending the score and Everton was pathetic the whole game anyway.

---

Fulham - Crystal Palace
Red Card: Fulham in 88th minute, score 0-2
Final Score: 1-2

Late red card and normally nothing happens then anymore with the game decided, but Fulham actually scored a goal one man down in 95th minute.

Spain

Valladolid - Alaves
Red Card: Valladolid in 21st minute, score 0-0
Final score: 0-2

Alaves took advantage nicely of the early red card. Such an early red card is really brutal for any team. I actually took a screenshot of the next goal market at halftime:


Source: https://orbitexch.com/

So around 1.75 for Alaves to not score the next goal.

---

Atletico Madrid - Betis
Red Card: Betis in 74th minute, score 1-0
Final score: 2-0

This is a typical example of what you can expect; Betis pushed for the equalizer and ran into a counter-attack.

Italy

Cagliari - Crotone
Red card: Crotone in 48th minute, score 3-2
Final score: 4-2

Similar to Atletico game. Didn't watch it, but Crotone was probably looking to defend the 2-3 for the time being to stay in the game as long as possible and start pushing only in the last ~10 minutes. Cagliari scored the deciding 4-2 in 84th minute then. Laying next goal Cagliari would have resulted in some trading profit, but I wouldn't want to make this one green.

Germany

Leipzig - Hertha Berlin
Red Card: Hertha in 50th minute, score 1-1
Final score: 2-1

Hertha was really doing good as huge underdog until the red card came and even then Leipzig had their problems and it needed a penalty to get the win for them. Playing nearly a full half one man down is never easy in an away game and Leipzig is a good team with lots of quality players. Expected result after that red card.

---

The red-carded teams were doing poor this round and each of them were losing their games in the end. Goals for after red card: 1, goals against: 5, no score change after red card only in one game.

Sometimes I wonder why players (especially defenders) even take the risk of a card (of any color) once the match is already decided, all the more so when the other team is clearly inferior. I guess it introduces a bit of drama for spectators and gamblers alike !

This weekend saw some more to cheer on, if you are a fan of hard tackles and unsportsmanlike conducts

England

Everton - Liverpool
Red Card: Everon in 90th minute, score 2-2
Final score: 2-2

Red card came late, so no impact.

---

Crystal Palace - Brighton
Red Card: Brighton in 93rd minute, score 1-1
Final Score: 1-1

Same here.

Spain

Granada - Sevilla
Red Card: Sevilla in 45th minute (injury time of first half), score 0-0
Final score: 1-0

Granada took advantage and scored the winning goal in 82nd minute. Some lay of Granada and frequent hedging would have worked, but this is very difficult to get right.

---

Eibar - Osasuna
Red Card: Osasuna in 88th minute, score 0-0
Final score: 0-0

Again a late red card with too few time left to have any impact.

---

Villareal - Valencia
Red Card: Villareal in 92nd minute, score 2-1
Final score: 2-1

And another one....

Italy

Crotone - Juventus
Red card: Juventus in 60th minute, score 1-1
Final score: 1-1

As one could expect, Juve was able to defend the score, but weren't able to score themselves again, also being without CR7. This is normally a spot, where most punters would feel good going on the red-carded team: Huge favourite and a not too early red card. Laying next goal Crotone would have been costly I guess, but would have won, so I am making this green.

Germany

Bielefeld - Bayern
Red Card: Bayern in 76th minute, score 1-4
Final score: 1-4

Game was already decided when the red card came and these games are probably pretty uninteresting to bet on then. Even with 8 players Bayern is still better than Bielefeld

---

There were some more red cards this weekend, but only 1 goal was scored after it. In general there are rather few red cards or they often come very late, so hard to get some bigger sample size. I should maybe add FRA1, there have been loads of red cards this season, 32 already this season

This was just an outlier and is no pattern


If I were a coach and my team gets a red card in first half being one score down (0-1/1-2/2-3), my ultimate goal would be to defend this score as long as possible to keep me in the game. Then in the maybe last 10 minutes, I would get more offensive again and try to score the equalizer.
I guess this is what ManU tried to do as well, because they didn't make any substitution after the red card. It didn't work out and they were down 1-4 already with half-time and then just decided to limit the damage, which didn't work out as well then

As I said in the opening post, I don't think a red card is that bad, i.e. the end of the world. You have some tactical tools and should also react properly on a mental level. We have seen in this thread that not all hope is lost when you are one man down (Eibar this weekend or Juve the weekend before). It is a disadvantage, but not as big as generally assumed imo.

I am surprised by this statistic as it seems to contradict that the fouling team will shift to a permanent defensive strategy after a red card. It looks like they'll try to snag one more goal if they can, then shift to a defensive strategy after which the other team is supposed to have a much harder time getting past them and shooting goals.

Also, defenders getting a red card has less impact on their teams if their formation is already defensive-oriented, like 4-4-2 or 4-3-3. If you only had three defenders and one of them goes down then they're in much bigger trouble because the other team gets what's pretty much an open lane, especially if you make a midfielder play defense instead of subbing in a real defender.

Interestingly Man United's attacker got the red card against Spurs, so they shouldn't have finished so badly. What happened? Did the whole team lose their morale and started to play badly?