Topic: Regarding Bull runs and speculations (Read 839 times)

It is clear why you see so many people hoping for a bull run, despite the bull run there are many people that lost money during the last bull run and they want to recover the money they lost and so they want a bull run, but I agree with you, if everyone is waiting for the bull run to happen then it is not going to happen, this may seem strange for someone that doesn't understand how the markets behave but it is impossible for every person to earn money in the market so most people need to lose.

And for most people to lose then this means that most of the time the market is going to move opposite to what people are expecting, and since everyone wants the market to go up you can be sure that the market is going to do the opposite.

I think the bull run is not purely speculative on nature, of course speculators make money during the bull market but it is definitely not the way it starts. One day something big happens, sometimes not even anything big needs to happen and than the price starts to go up, one day it goes up like %10 than it goes up another 7% than when you look at the whole week the price increased like 50% or more and than it keeps happening like that for a month and increases like 300% or whatever total.

Speculators do not have enough power to neither keep it low or stop it so what they do is just get in and try to pay their way into the bandwagon and keep the price going for another while until they get out with their money. Sometimes when they leave it makes the market crash because the price already stays on thin ice after a while but sometimes it just keeps going.

First of all, I don't get why just because some people choose to speculate on the price of bitcoin would automatically mean that the price of bitcoin wouldn't be able to go up anymore? I mean, these are really not mutually exclusive by any means.

You're right about last year being one of the biggest bull markets that we've seen, though. And I do believe that last year's bull market will probably be the most in magnitude that we'll see in a while, to be frank, due to the fact that now the entire bitcoin sphere is a lot more mature and it's harder for such percentages of gains to be achieved.

But bull markets are a part of the normal cycles that occur within bitcoin, and with the halving coming up in 2 years time, I would definitely be confident in saying that a bull market would be due as soon as prices bottom out, which I believe isn't right now. Of course, I don't expect it to be anything near last year's growth, though.

It is not that hard to predict right now because the volume is very low, not all time low because we have been steadily getting new people on the way and getting more crowded so even during stagnant boring times the volume is higher than what it used to be couple years ago but still low compared to what it can be and what it used to be. Now when the volume is this low it means the volatility is a risk for whales, when volatility is a risk than they do not get in.

Hence, when the speculators who has a lot of money can't get in during low volumes (because they wouldn't be capable of getting in and out without causing market stirrup) what happens? A calm market. When a bull comes the volume will naturally go up again and during that time they will come back and do something but until that happens we are fine.

Sure, it is always going to be hard to predict, but as this market keeps growing that is one thing we will always get to see over time, until we reach a point of no return which I see as mainstream adoption, and bitcoin or most cryptocurrencies are now being used in real life based on their product, and in that case, we will definitely not have the same market as we have now when that time comes.

It is a market and for sure, there is no doubt that no one can predict anything but we can also realize that in the long run, judging from the present moment, there is actually a great time ahead of us.

that seems reasonable enough. it leaves enough room for a multi-year bear market, which so many people are dismissing prematurely. the confidence many people have that the bear market is over---despite no technical evidence of a price reversal---is unnerving to me. at the bottom in 2015, sentiment was much more negative. everyone thought bitcoin was dead, and hope was destroyed. it felt very different from now.

this is why tim draper prevailed when other grand predictions failed. these cycles can take years to develop.

I think there's a bull run maybe not this year but like others I believe too that will be having bull run again and I think its huge. We can blame for anyone because it's their own decision and opinions. If you see a chart since bitcoin start you will the every progress and bull runs.

Bull run will happen because market cycles are a part of every market. Everything has bull and bear markets - gold, stocks, commodities, currencies. So, with Bitcoin, the only question is when will it happen and when will this bear market reach its bottom. There were many greedy predictions this year claiming there will be bull run at the end of this year, so people might have some unrealistic expectations, but it's safe to assume that the bull run will happen within next 4 years.

There are two sides to this market, the spot market, and the OTC market.

Retailers are the most active on the spot market, which nicely explains why the far majority of the current trading consists of algorithmic activity, because retailers have taken a long nap. Institutions and other deep pockets are entering and trading on the OTC market, which isn't measured in any form or shape, aside from what we can see in terms of value being transferred on-chain.

Bitcoin is steadily hovering around $4 billion per day in on-chain value transfers, which is pretty solid in times where the spot market is reaching low after low when it comes to their volumes.

https://bitinfocharts.com/bitcoin/

Well, there are already institutional investors that are coming in at this stage believe it or not, in the middle of the bear market.

The thing is that there are people who are invested in bitcoin in order to speculate, and there are people who actually believe in the technology behind it, which most people on this forum I assume are. It's probably not wise to generalize the bitcoin investors worldwide into any single category for their motivations.

The thing is though, that bitcoin moves in cycles and last year saw some pretty crazy bullish growth which was admittedly unsustainable. This year, that's why we see the bear market kicking in. A bull market will re-enter as soon as this bearish sentiment clears, which I think will definitely take a year or two further based on historical trends, but will happen sooner or later.

It seems that the investors confidence level in bitcoin is pretty low at the moment, as there were quite a number of bullish news reports on crypto-currencies recently, but sadly to say, it did not trigger a small bull run even at the last quarter of year 2018, I guess there is not much hope left now for the bull market to return in the year of 2018.

If you look at the history of bitcoin, the popularity has risen a lot so we can say that investors confidence in it also increase therefore we could say that we are still on the bull run.

Take a look below...

Me too. Yeah it feels good to talk about happy moments of bitcoin, but such hypes play with our emotions. When we hear something good is about to happen, we raised our expectation from bitcoin but later when everything just broke out, that is point of loss. For a successful trader immense trust and faith factor is important that can be demolished by such hypes.

A bull run can occur when investor confidence in bitcoin increases again, if investor confidence in bitcoin decreases it is impossible for a bull run to occur. this takes a long time.

The mega run was not just last year and in the long term, I am still pretty bullish on bitcoin, knowing that we have not even reached any mainstream adoption phase and the market has been growing every single year.

Sure, one way or the other, we can accept the fact that crypto space right now is all about speculation, but you think that will not change over time? It is that way because it is still a very new space and as time goes on when the space becomes a lot usable in the real world, I can guarantee you that it would have left the whole speculative stage, and the value will not even be what it is today. It is actually that future we are all investing in now.

This year we are still ending higher than the last but there a massive spike last year which was completely unnatural. now we are seeing an organic rise which will result in stability and maybe a successful etf application

Hardest part about the bull run is that it happens at once. Right now, we are in a market where everything is looking stable, some drop off than some come up but in the end its always about the same price. When bitcoin went up last year it went up so quickly that most people didn't have time to react and that is why many people got in during the $15k+ times and right now they are not happy with that decision.

The only option we have right now is to keep our money in bitcoin until it goes up and never get it out of there. It is really hard when you have your money stuck somewhere for months and not moving even dropping couple points and you see it going to waste and not sure if it will ever go up again. Sometimes people say "enough" and get out sometimes they hang around but in the end if bitcoin jumps in price you need to have your money ready in it to make decent returns.

Expectations always come at the right time and when bullish will come don't be over excited but remain calm. Don't rush out on your holdings and have strong faith with crypto. This is one way of showing gratitude with your holdings, and yet be decisive on most certain cases that will affect your way of protecting a precious asset.

The mega run was last year yes, and in 2013, and in 2011. There wasn't one mega run and now it's done, it is a pattern of booms and busts that bitcoin goes through. 2017 was just the boom part of one of these cycles.

People aren't hoping for a bull run, we are guessing WHEN it will happen, not hoping that it might happen.

Why would any money come into Bitcoin after the crazy run and crash in 2011? Why after the early 2013 same thing? why after the late 2013 same thing?

My guess if you've never looked at the history of Bitcoin and had never heard of it before 2017 and only know about what happened in 2017. Bitcoin has been on an S-curve of adoption, each boom bringing in exponentially more people. With this most recent 2017 boom Bitcoin reached like 0.5% of the world population, which is nothing. So now that the crash has seemingly ended two months ago and the next bull run will almost certainly start within a few months people like to predict when exactly when it will start, cuz its fun to predict things.

If you don't know why people expect Bitcoin to continue going up and continue doing the boom-bust cycles that have defined its entire lifetime, well I'd suggest to just start learning about Bitcoin. There is a reason why in 7 years it went from less than one cent to $20k, and that reason didn't all of a sudden disappear after 2017.

Nah. People should stop looking at 2015 because of how it was MtGox largely responsible for the horrible sentiment.

If you add that most people involved in this space weren't sure if Bitcoin was here to stay, it only further accelerated the sales going on back then. We are way past that stage, and I'm sure that most people finally have come to the point of acknowledging that Bitcoin isn't going anywhere.

Another bullish factor is that we're in the process of sucking market share out of USDT, which is slowly but surely flowing into other (more reputable) stablecoins. By the time USDT implodes, it will be a fart instead of a nuclear explosion. Life is good here, more so than ever before. Stacking BTC's is what people should be doing now, not waste time worrying about 1-5% movements.