Topic: Resources for a more reliable paroly (multi-bet) strategy - page 2. (Read 186 times)

Isn't that just reverse martingale? Only difference being that martingale is loosely based on 50/50 probability. Or more like it lures people thinking it makes sense. However with sports betting it doesn't work like that. Not that there would be anything wrong doing reverse martingale, but it's far from the idea of original reverse martingale.

I have however tried this with basketball and "sure bets", as combining them creates decent multipliers, and while it can work for a while, all it takes is one loss to get start from beginning, it hasn't really been successful so far. And obviously i realize that there are no strategies that work, that there's only luck. But it's still fun to try and look for winning patterns that doesn't exist, as that's hard coded to human brains benause of that, it's emotionally rewarding.

I started a discussion last week, looking to find out what others think in terms of placing money on multi-bets (parlay bet slips) and if they have a strategy. Based on the feedback and my own experience, I thought other gamblers might find it useful to explore some resources on how to improve their parlay bet strategy. Let's begin with the basics: 

What is parley (multi-bets)?   
We can start by having a look at the dictionary definition about what parlay means for betting.



As you can see, parlay is a strategy where you're doing somewhat of the opposite of a martingale strategy. You take your winnings and original stake, and put it towards another match. This means that you increase your bet based on if you won. The risk here is that if you lose once, you lose all your stake plus winnings that were built up.

Advantages of parlay betting
One of the main advantages of parlay betting is that you can increase the odds on your staked money by betting on multiple matches. Bookmakers today even allow to create betting slips on concurrent matches even when they are live.

Strategy
First, a disclaimer: It's important at this point to understand that a betting strategy can't be fool proof. Always apply principles of limiting your stakes to what you can afford to lose and follow through with your life's normal priorities before anything else. Betting is only for fun and not a replacement to normal income!

Now when it comes to strategies of placing parlay bets, you have to consider what's your goal and adjust your stakes accordingly. There are two main alternatives on how to approach parlay bets:
A. Combining a few matches with high odds, can result to getting a high-paying bet slip. You will however have to place your bets carefully.
B. Placing many bets on mid to low odds outcomes so that you can achieve a high total multiplier with the combination of many likely outcomes.

In either case, it might be helful to place bets near or above a target where a certain multiplier is satisfied with your stakes. This makes calculations easier. For example if your target multiplier is 5x, you're remaining in profit so long as you win more than 1/5 bet slips you play with parlay. And that's an important aspect of parlay bets. You will be losing a lot! But as long as you win more than you lose, you can say that your strategy and intuition is working.


With that out of the way, let's now consider what makes a match a good candidate for being added to a parlay bet slip.

1. Reliability
When betting on any sports match, unlikely outcomes aren't usually your friend. Since with parlay strategies we're trying to build a good bigger multiplier by combining many matches, it's good to be able to rely on a team's history and recent appearances to better predict outcomes. Usually we find teams having a more reliable performance in big leagues of popular sports where some of the world's biggest associations play.

2. Market participation
Having a market with poor participation by other punters, is going to result to unbalanced odds calculations more often than not. And when bookies are unsure of what people consider the favorite for winning a match, they generally tend to lower the odds even further. Which makes such match ups even more uneven for the player as the edge increases even further against the one placing the bets.

Which Leagues' matches satisfy the criteria of being good additions for parlay multi-bet slips?
In my personal opinion, big football leagues like the English Premiere League, Spain's LaLiga, Germany's Budesliga as well as Italy's Serie A are some of the best leagues to find matches to bet on for parlay bets. In these leagues, if a team is on top of the ranking you can be sure that the odds given to it winning make sense. So at the very least you won't get trapped in betting on low-odds outcomes as likely and see them get overturned very often with these leagues. Plus also, markets for these bets are plentiful and have widespread participation, so the odds aren't reduced by the bookmakers due to decreased participation.

Other sports categories and what to avoid
In terms of other sports, you'll have to look at which countries host the top-leagues respectively. For instance, the U.S. hosts one of the world's most popular basketball leagues, the NBA. Similarly for Hockey, there's the the NAHL etc. But there are some sports categories that should be avoided entirely for parlay bets in my experience. For instance amateur or college leagues, handball, volleyball, individual sports and women's sports. As sad as it is, given that individual sports, college and amateur's as well as women's leagues aren't receiving major funding and aren't as organized as well on an association or league level, leaves them very prone to having very unreliable outcomes even when you're betting on the best. Teams will often overturn results that were considered unwinnable there. So these bets are better to be placed individually other than in parlays.

That's all for now. Let me know if you find this useful. Feel free to share your feedback and if you'd like to see more like this