Reverse Bubble 2021 | Bitcointalksearch.org

pooya87

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Quote from: buwaytress on October 17, 2021, 09:07:09 AM

when most bets I know of are on 100k by December, it feels like there is some risk a lot of market gamblers will wind down their risk as soon as this target hits.

I personally don't put that much thought into this group of traders because they don't shape the long term movement of bitcoin, so far their effects have been very short. A good example of such a scenario is whenever we hit the previous ATH after years of trying, $1.2k in 2017 or $20k this year. This are big targets that these gamblers start selling at. $100k won't be any different and at worst they will postpone the continuation of the rise for a month.

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A far better scenario is for the new phase to continue gathering momentum over this Q4 and then hope the inertia only comes into play end of Q1 2022.

That's what I'm hoping for too.

buwaytress

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Quote from: pooya87 on October 17, 2021, 01:47:19 AM

Quote from: buwaytress on October 16, 2021, 08:43:04 AM

6 months reverse bubble, is 6 months for actual too much to ask you think?

It is hard to say, we are just entering the new phase and have to wait and see how much momentum we are going to get from here. With that said I believe that the ATH (bubble peak) was postponed due to this prolonged downtrend to first quarter of 2022 so 6 months doesn't seem off.

Yeah, reason I'm "hoping" for 6 months is I'd really like December not to be the end of this ride. It's already moved in a longer timeframe than the previous, but when even PlanB (not a fan, but since his model is apparently the most accurate thus far, gotta give some credit) doesn't seem too keen to put hard numbers down beyond December, and when most bets I know of are on 100k by December, it feels like there is some risk a lot of market gamblers will wind down their risk as soon as this target hits. A far better scenario is for the new phase to continue gathering momentum over this Q4 and then hope the inertia only comes into play end of Q1 2022.

pooya87

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Quote from: buwaytress on October 16, 2021, 08:43:04 AM

6 months reverse bubble, is 6 months for actual too much to ask you think?

It is hard to say, we are just entering the new phase and have to wait and see how much momentum we are going to get from here. With that said I believe that the ATH (bubble peak) was postponed due to this prolonged downtrend to first quarter of 2022 so 6 months doesn't seem off.

Quote from: STT on October 16, 2021, 04:40:45 PM

Problem is the rate of ascent is a little too aggressive to expect it to rise for 6 months.

It is actually pretty slow by bitcoin standards, a "too agressive ascent" would have been going from $45k to $65k in half an hour.
Besides it is the nature of bubble bursts to be fast.

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Some of these people borrowed money to buy and they'll cash it back out,

Do you have any proof to back this up or are you just guessing?

Baofeng

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Quote from: STT on October 16, 2021, 04:40:45 PM

Problem is the rate of ascent is a little too aggressive to expect it to rise for 6 months. Its going to reset within that even if it resolves upwards. Some of these people borrowed money to buy and they'll cash it back out, if it stays above 50k the whole time that will be bullish. Some expected 100k this year but staying consistently higher for 6 months would make that become of a possible reality in the next year.

I really don't think it's a quick ascend though, we have seen lower lows for this year, at $28k-$29k, so it was not an easy ride going to new all time high or even $100k as everyone is really hoping.

And then bitcoin narrative also change, there are some companies going public or slipping under the radar and having bitcoin in their balance sheet. So let's see when the bubble will be burst? hitting above $100k? $200k?

STT

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Problem is the rate of ascent is a little too aggressive to expect it to rise for 6 months. Its going to reset within that even if it resolves upwards. Some of these people borrowed money to buy and they'll cash it back out, if it stays above 50k the whole time that will be bullish. Some expected 100k this year but staying consistently higher for 6 months would make that become of a possible reality in the next year.

buwaytress

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Must feel pretty good to get in nice and smooth on the bubble wave. So if it's popped now, I expect we are about to enter the other, actual, bubble -- most important question for me is how long do we got? For some reason, even s2f won't really say much beyond December but if the reverse lasted a lot longer, why shouldn't the actual also go on for a protracted period, right?

6 months reverse bubble, is 6 months for actual too much to ask you think?

pooya87

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This reverse bubble was more similar to the 2018 reverse bubble and lasted a lot longer than I initially expected but surely enough this was also an unstable state that had to go away so as the "reverse bubble" "reverse popped" in 5 months we saw the price go back to more realistic values.

There were 4 stages in this pop.
1. The initial denial of the bubble where the FUD campaign is the strongest but the least effective. All it does is creating doubt and preventing people from buying but nobody is selling anymore so the price is only affected by manipulators and shorters most of whom are losing a lot of money.
2. The slow burst that price keeps pushing up while bear-whales lose more money as they keep trying to go against the market.
3. The bear whales last stance where out of denial of the reversal they try their best to push the price lower and fail for the last time.
4. The complete bubble burst where price goes back above $60k and continues rising higher heading for the previous ATH to set a new record.

Obviously there were other incidents that prolonged some of these stages such as the Chinese FUD, hashrate drop, etc. But the general trend remains the same as any other Reverse Bubble™.

yohananaomi

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Quote from: Silberman on June 14, 2021, 03:16:47 PM

Quote from: Kittygalore on June 05, 2021, 05:27:49 AM

We don't know yet but I am positive that the prices are going to go up in the next month, pretty sure we might be able to see one or two ATH for bitcoin.

Doubtful, I think we are in an accumulation period, so I am taking advantage of the low price and buying the bitcoin that I can, also even if I turn out to be wrong and this is a bear market then I still bought bitcoin 50% away from its ATH so I got a good entry point, right now we are seeing bitcoin challenging the 40k level and if we can remain above that level that will be a good sign that the feared bear market is not coming so soon.

dicrypto everything that is impossible can happen and sometimes doesn't make sense but that's the reality that happens, because the characters are already formed. the right thing you have done where now bitcoin reached the correction point from ATH to -50% and clearly the right time to be able to buy. although I can't conclude when is the best time to buy bitcoin because anytime for bitcoin is the same, because bitcoin will increase from when we buy it and it will continue to happen in bitcoin.

I strongly believe bitcoin by the end of the year will increase as originally planned to create a fantastic renewable ATH.
currently the price is very stable and this is the behavior that bitcoin does if it wants to increase sharply. it will go down and up several times and even break through $40K but will go down again, bitcoin shows. in time bitcoin will increase and will penetrate gradually starting with $50K first.

Silberman

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Quote from: Kittygalore on June 05, 2021, 05:27:49 AM

We don't know yet but I am positive that the prices are going to go up in the next month, pretty sure we might be able to see one or two ATH for bitcoin.

Doubtful, I think we are in an accumulation period, so I am taking advantage of the low price and buying the bitcoin that I can, also even if I turn out to be wrong and this is a bear market then I still bought bitcoin 50% away from its ATH so I got a good entry point, right now we are seeing bitcoin challenging the 40k level and if we can remain above that level that will be a good sign that the feared bear market is not coming so soon.

wheelz1200

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Honestly TA aside this has happened now with regularity in crypto. I'm not saying the same cycle will happen but due to the largely crypto uneducated money that comes into crypto it feeds large spikes and falls due to greed and fear. Evident by the mass amount of people that use exchanges as wallets. I'd say until that is a thing of the past that we will have large greedy spikes and crazy fearful falls.

STT

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Sharp pull back but its not especially outside the boundaries of what its done previously and my context would be the lows of March in that spike down from the virus shock news, a never before expected event. Relative to the long term low in that way its way up and I consider the scale of its movement in that way.
Right now it does look negative some but its developing situation and I think its mostly about wringing the rag dry of all the sellers who wont hold at any price unless its rapidly rising, some people just dont have patience or belief to be within this space and so they must depart at least until we are rapidly rising again when some will return to ride that far easier path. Its a natural cycle, its recognisable to me and Im not yet surprised by this action.

my take on this weekly graph view and its just a brief snapshot but I think we do need to meet that 50 week average or prices in that area to resolve selling and weakness in balance vs still ongoing interest in BTC developing further. A rocket has stages to its movement, some fall away and that can be alarming but I think revising prices is still a positive here harsh as it might seem.

Branflakes92

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We obviously don't know whether it will do it again. All signs point to it carrying on, but this is bitcoin and it does what it wants. I can only guess the price increase is due to a supply crunch from the halving hitting, it seems to take just over a year to properly arrive though.

tokeweed

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Yep that’s it.. The 4 year cycle. But I’m asking, without any of the bs, what assures it will follow the same exact cycle this time? I mean what’s the reason? That’s just the way it is? Faith?

Anyway, it seems to be accumulating rn. Let’s see...

pooya87

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Quote from: tokeweed on June 05, 2021, 10:47:49 AM

because it’s part of the 4 year cycle. I mean really?

Speaking of the 4 year cycle lets take a look at the previous one compared to the current one in a chart I made a couple of days ago. It uses the ATH to ATH as its period and shows percentage drop and rise:

It would be very interesting to see the 4 year cycle is broken when the first 3 years were pretty much the same.

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With the market falling everytime Elon Musk tweets something negative about BTC?

The market isn't "falling every time" he tweets. It fell only once then there was a downward trend of panic sellers. Nowadays whenever he makes a negative tweet it only excites a handful of idiots and the market as a whole remains uninterested otherwise price wouldn't have stayed within the same 5% range!

aoluain

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Quote from: pooya87 on May 27, 2021, 02:54:29 AM

Quote from: Bttzed03 on May 27, 2021, 02:09:57 AM

After Elon tweeted about Tesla's diamond hands, Billionaires such as Ray Dalio and Darl Icahn have come out in the open and made positive statements about bitcoin.

For many years I've been always saying that rich people have been buying bitcoin and accumulating it for a very long time. That includes those that are most negative about bitcoin such as Warren Buffet. We will continue seeing most of them reveal their real position and we may even get a feel of how much of their net-worth they have "parked in" bitcoin.

The wealthy have certainly been accumulating Bitcoin and especially over the last few weeks
$60k was a taste of what is achievable this year and beyond and then it drops to the mid
$30k's, this presents everyone with an opportunity to buy discounted Bitcoin.

The idea of the Reverse Bubble is something I havent thought of but the
OP is very enlightening.

I liken the current market as a spring slowly compressing...its anyone's
guess when that spring is going to release from too much pressure.

tokeweed

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Quote from: buwaytress on June 05, 2021, 05:16:08 AM

Willy bot back eh tokes? I'm a simple guy and always have seen TA as entertaining rather than portent of things to come. I still feel I can get a good sense of overall crypto sentiment since I work in the "industry" and there are some levels of optimism I believe I can match with the past cycle that leads me to think this reverse bubble is at least indication that alt momentum is entering the post hype phase (shall I say the dirty defi word?).

Fud not yet apparent now is on these defi protocols and lending platforms... Coming, no surprise, from self professed bitcoin maximalists.

That tells me Bitcoin itself isn't done yet and the backlash from failed defi has yet to come.

Rally incoming, in other words.

Just saying.. I’d take any sane analysis on why BTC would trend up to 500k than telling me 500k will just happen because it’s part of the 4 year cycle. I mean really? With the market falling everytime Elon Musk tweets something negative about BTC? Lolol.

Here’s the thing and maxis would surely hate this: Elon Musk will sell BTC for ETH come December. I could feel it.

Kittygalore

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We don't know yet but I am positive that the prices are going to go up in the next month, pretty sure we might be able to see one or two ATH for bitcoin.

buwaytress

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Willy bot back eh tokes? I'm a simple guy and always have seen TA as entertaining rather than portent of things to come. I still feel I can get a good sense of overall crypto sentiment since I work in the "industry" and there are some levels of optimism I believe I can match with the past cycle that leads me to think this reverse bubble is at least indication that alt momentum is entering the post hype phase (shall I say the dirty defi word?).

Fud not yet apparent now is on these defi protocols and lending platforms... Coming, no surprise, from self professed bitcoin maximalists.

That tells me Bitcoin itself isn't done yet and the backlash from failed defi has yet to come.

Rally incoming, in other words.

decodx

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Quote from: DarkIT on June 02, 2021, 03:16:20 PM

I had come to know,the bitcoin was a legal tender in India.India was a huge market for the most of world product.So the people of India will inverse in huge manner.Because they can easily convert to their fiat.And their is no last man run to reach the race.We no need to worry about the ban of bitcoin again in India.All private sector will look into it to get profit from it.

Yes. A new circular was issued by the RBI on 31st May 2021 regarding cryptocurrency legality in India.

Customer Due Diligence for transactions in Virtual Currencies (VC)
https://rbi.org.in/scripts/NotificationUser.aspx?Mode=0&Id=12103

As per the RBI circular, banks have been asked to stop citing its 2018 circular (which, in essence, banned cryptocurrencies in India but was overturned by the Supreme Court in March 2020).

DarkIT

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I had come to know,the bitcoin was a legal tender in India.India was a huge market for the most of world product.So the people of India will inverse in huge manner.Because they can easily convert to their fiat.And their is no last man run to reach the race.We no need to worry about the ban of bitcoin again in India.All private sector will look into it to get profit from it.

Topic: Reverse Bubble 2021 (Read 573 times)