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Topic: Reversion to the mean - page 3. (Read 2255 times)

legendary
Activity: 2576
Merit: 1087
October 07, 2015, 04:30:09 PM
#7
Aha! The dynamic duo trying to bring the conversation right back around to exactly where they want it!

You can continue that conversation on your "xt is rekt" thread. I'm not really that interested in 'reasons why smallblocks' I already said that people will use whatever reasons they can to justify there preconceived opinion (just as I might do). However, You are still falling foul of this....


Concerns about centralisation are being used as a way to justify not increasing block size.

The common theme is that in both cases these are just hypothesis. They are predictions of the future and they are fragile. brg444 said something on reddit earlier about Taleb's black swan, and how humans are bad at predicting. So lets assume that in both the statements above "concerns about X" are likely to be invalidated by a black swan event.


A fee market doesn't help adoption, its a barrier to entry. Its the *opposite* to helping adoption.

You two can keep posting night and day about what you think is going to happen, but what will actually happen? that is another thing. When that black swan hits, everything you've argued turns to dust.

This is the essence of antifragile, to be wrong day after day, at a small cost. When the day hits that you are right, thats when the payoff comes, because doesn't matter how many times you post #REKT that one black swan will erase all of them.



A purely peer-to-peer version of electronic cash would allow online payments to be sent directly from one party to another without going through a financial institution.
hero member
Activity: 644
Merit: 504
Bitcoin replaces central, not commercial, banks
October 07, 2015, 03:28:44 PM
#6
legendary
Activity: 2156
Merit: 1072
Crypto is the separation of Power and State.
October 07, 2015, 03:09:05 PM
#5
We'll get larger blocks when Satoshi said we should - "eventually."

But "I really want them" isn't a good enough reason.

So 'Not Tonight, Dear!'


or "please, please, don't increase block size now because ....?"

"You'd have to look into block propagation times and orphan rates to get a better insight. There were good presentations in the recent workshop."

#R3KT
legendary
Activity: 2576
Merit: 1087
October 07, 2015, 03:01:57 PM
#4
legendary
Activity: 2674
Merit: 2965
Terminated.
October 07, 2015, 02:46:36 PM
#3
Bitcoin does not scale efficiently on it's own. This is correct, and some developers have even stated this or something of similar meaning. This does not mean that we should not scale Bitcoin. This does not mean that we should only scale Bitcoin via block size increase either. You'd have to look into block propagation times and orphan rates to get a better insight. There were good presentations in the recent workshop. What Bitcoin needs is a dynamic block size in a combination with the Lightning Network, sidechains, etc. Only then will Bitcoin be able to be used by the majority.


Please move beyond the simplistic 'every-coffee-and-bagel-on-the-Blockchain' paradigm.  That POV is so three-years-ago, and was rubbished once and for all by a single domination post.
I concur. This is pretty much impossible due to the two things listed above (propagation times and orphans); impossible without the Lightning Network or something else.
legendary
Activity: 2156
Merit: 1072
Crypto is the separation of Power and State.
October 07, 2015, 02:37:32 PM
#2
You've got it all wrong, just like back when you were suffering under the delusion BIP101 blocks were necessarily being mined by RealXT nodes.

In case you forgot about that, here's a reminder you often assume you know WTF you're talking about even when you actually do not.

Pseudo nodes aren't mining blocks.

Remember that?  And then slush came out and disclosed yes indeed, his 101 blocks were being spoofed?  Good times!  I like the part where you were wrong.  Please don't try to (once more) generalize this as me claiming I'm smarter than you; I'm only saying I know how Bitcoin works and you don't.  Generic IQ comparisons have little to do with it.

The XTurds haven't forgiven slush for that BTW.  They still call him a coward for shutting down the 101 port to avoid more DDOS, while simultaneously begging him to reopen it.  How dare he not support their agenda at his expense!   Cheesy

Bigger blocks do not provide the scaling ability you're looking for.  8MB or 20MB will do NOTHING to help in the case of actual widespread adoption, which is exactly why it is imperative fee markets be developed ASAP.  Even if we tried to make bigger blocks, SPV-type mining incentives would simply create more empty ones and defeat the entire purpose (while still incurring the costs of increased externalities and decreased survivability).

Please move beyond the simplistic 'every-coffee-and-bagel-on-the-Blockchain' paradigm.  That POV is so three-years-ago, and was rubbished once and for all by a single domination post.

The true value that Bitcoin brings to the table is not "everyone gets to write into the holy ledger", it is instead "everyone gets to benefit from sane and non-inflationary financial instutions whose sanity and honesty are ensured by the holy blockchain".

Like PR's considerations of spherical blockchains, your voluminous hypothetical nonsense ignores the fact no first mover will ever be able to defect from and thereby subvert Bitcoin's socioeconomic majority.  Anyone so foolish will be crushed by DDOS, Gavincoin shorts, and more.  Thus, everybody expects everyone else to go first.  And of course, nobody does.  Game over, newb...BIP000 wins!

We'll get larger blocks when Satoshi said we should - "eventually."

But "I really want them" isn't a good enough reason.

So 'Not Tonight, Dear!'
legendary
Activity: 2576
Merit: 1087
October 07, 2015, 01:31:22 PM
#1
All this talk is so wearing, I've been reading less and less on the forums and thinking.

When I got into bitcoin I saw something with massive potential to be disruptive technology. It looked to me like it could basically replace fiat currency, an opinion that I think was shared by a lot of people back in the day. Sure there was the whole get rich quick thing, and the insane volatility and the less cynical more funny community.

I still believe this fundamental idea that bitcoin can take over the world.

To do that it needs to grow though, and that's why "I am SGBETT and I am a big blocker"... but you all knew that already.

What seems to have happened though, is that a new idea has arisen. The idea that bitcoin *can't* scale, and should instead be used as some kind of settlement layer. That other things should be developed to provide the 'currency' style features.

What I am finding difficult is the whole debate seems to be now centred around the pro's and cons of two exclusive camps. BTC can *only* be store of value and settlement. BTC can *only* be cash. The participants have taken these as axiomatic truths and are arguing the pro's and cons.

At worst this is an intentional strategy, by characterising the argument in this way its easier to justify one position by radicalising the opposing view and arguing against it. At best its just misguided passion for what you believe in. A cynic might think its the former, but I am going to assume its the latter.

Concerns about centralisation are being used as a way to justify not increasing block size.

Concerns about full blocks are being used as a way to justify increasing block size.

The common theme is that in both cases these are just hypothesis. They are predictions of the future and they are fragile. brg444 said something on reddit earlier about Taleb's black swan, and how humans are bad at predicting. So lets assume that in both the statements above "concerns about X" are likely to be invalidated by a black swan event.

Where does that leave us?

Well the followup work by Taleb describes Antifragility. This means positioning yourself to benefit massively/protecting yourself from loss should the unexpected happen, which it inevitably will.

Of course this perspective can be twisted to justify pro / anti block size increase. I'll leave it to the small blockers to give there explanation as to how keeping blocks small is antifragile.

My view though, is that having larger than you think you need blocks is antifragile. If there is an unprecedented surge in bitcoin use then transactions can increase massively, fees go up massively miners get paid, we all cheer because bitcoin adoption is taking off (we can surely agree that everyone would like to see adoption no?). If the blocks are much bigger than we need, and they are not needed, nothing happens. An antifragile view (imho) looks at both outcomes and checks to make sure neither results in tragedy.

Lets take centralisation. Massive blocks, really big regularly, means fewer people can run nodes etc. This could happen, but how badly? What constitutes unacceptable levels of centralisation, unacceptable as in 'terminal', can we define this? Is there an actual block size (not block size limit) that causes terminal centralisation? Do 8MB blocks cause this, 16MB, 32... ? Don't forget each doubling is 2 years, so we are already in 2020 before anyone could mine a 32 MB block.

Note, that is *could* mine a big block. If we don't need it, we don't use it, and thats the flip side of the centralisation argument. Nothing bad happens.

You can dissect all arguments for and against block size in this fashion, trying to figure out what course of action is most antifragile.

Fee market - in 2020 with 32 mb blocks. If they are full then a simple extrapolation may be that we have 32x the amount of current fees in a block (about 6BTC). Maybe average fee per transaction has declined tenfold and there is only 0.6BTC a block. Still, the block reward is 12.5BTC so we still aren't exactly in tragic failure mode. If we are still only doing the same volume as today then nothing bad happens.

The closest I think we can get to arguing 'something bad happens' is the terminal centralisation of mining. A hypothetical *extreme* scenario. The fee market argument doesn't hold up because we still have decades before the block size gets small enough that fees are relevant.

I can't fathom why anyone is trying to force a fee market right now whilst the block reward is still so big. The only reason I can see is greed, and that would perfectly fit with all of human history. Bitcoin is the goose laying golden eggs right now, and it feels to me like some people aren't happy with one egg a day.

Why reversion to the mean, because this is exactly what the banks are doing right now. The banks squeeze us for every penny, because they are greedy and we have no choice.

This fee market? Who do you think pays for it, and to whom?

Appeal to authority, yes.
Appeal to emotion, yes.

Isn't that the whole point, doing smart things that feel right. Learning from history. Don't make bitcoin 'the bank', don't let greedy men fool you - it was inevitable that once bitcoin started showing value it would attract those that seek to take that value for themselves.

Bitcoin should be for everyone. Bitcoin should replace 'fiat' money.

A purely peer-to-peer version of electronic cash would allow online payments to be sent directly from one party to another without going through a financial institution.
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