Or, just prove me wrong with some predictions. What's the price going to be 3 days from now? 1 week? 1 month?
Glad to share, even if you are merely an observer. Others reading this may consider what I say from a different viewpoint than yours. You must admit that algorithmic trading which utterly dominates large markets in almost every security is codified realtime technical analysis.
The goal of my bitcoin TA is to manually and infrequently perform trades that enable me to gain more coin, not to increase my amount of fiat. A second goal is to understand the phase of the market and thus avoid making poor decisions based upon panic or mania.
My most important bitcoin TA is calling the peak of a bubble. Using only historical price action I predict that a very good time to sell will be when the price appears to be doubling in approximately a week,i.e. the culmination of a super-exponential growth phase. There is academic research on the study of various bubbles to support this tactic. The peak is a good time to sell or spend bitcoin, either to take profit or to buy back later to increase the number of held coins.
My second most important bitcoin TA determines a good place to buy, e.g. additional accumulation, or a buy-back from a previous sale, or otherwise a good time to postpone spending coin. Using data from the last two bubbles
I predict a good time to buy is right now because the Log10 price deviation from the Logistic Model Log10 price trendline is -0.344, which is less than -0.3 limit that was a good point in the collapse of the June 2011 and April 2013 bubbles.
The long term price trend, as measured by my model, is currently at $1057 and rising at more than $7 daily. This is a great comfort to me knowing that there should be a strong bias to return to the trend, and that affects my short term technical analysis described next.
The most common technical pattern that I recognize in the historical price series is what I call a shock, conceptualized as a dampened oscillation. A positive or negative impulse exhausts the ask order book or bid order book respectively, to a certain depth depending upon the strength, i.e. volume of the move. The impulse is caused by what market microstructure theory dubs an informed trader, i.e. someone with a reason to trade. The other traders, dubbed uniformed traders, react to the impulse but lack the reason, and move price action back towards a central point. The oscillation is caused by market making activity in which mostly uninformed traders try to profit from each other based on differing notion of where the volume-weighed center is and whether it is likely that other informed traders will enter the market. According to the Wisdom of Crowds principle, the oscillations dampen in time. This sort of pattern is a fractal, meaning that it can occur over almost any time duration. Traditional chartists have named these patterns triangles, wedges and flags.
I do not trade bitcoin on the short or medium term. Commissions at USD exchanges tilt the odds greatly in favor of the exchange. Market makers, employing algorithmic bots do much better when trading fees are zero - hence the tremendous volume on the many fiercely competitive Chinese exchanges having no trading fees.
With only a mild degree of confidence, I predict the next bubble to peak this July-August at about $6000 and for prices to collapse in the fall to about $3000. When the next all time high occurs, I believe that I can improve this prediction with more confidence - using the date of the ATH alone as input.
Here is my prediction for the next few weeks. We are at a dramatic situation from a technical point of view. The declining resistance line touches or nearly touches the tops of a number of price waves in the dampened oscillation resulting from shock collapse from the bubble peak in November. I will use a long duration chart with one-week candles to illustrate the point . . .
When I look at the above chart, I conceptualize the price as having bounced away from the drawn resistance line. There are of course assorted external or fundamental causes for each of the price moves, but TA abstracts all that away with the presumption that the price and volume indirectly incorporate that knowledge via the trading behavior of the participants who perceived that information and took action.
The drama is occurring because most of the technical chartists, and I too, believe that the bubble collapse bottom occurred on April 10 at $339. And therefore the drawn line of resistance must be broken through on the trajectory to the next much higher bubble peak. The price could bust through in a strong impulse, or could continue sideways in what chartists call a channel. Here is a close up of the drama, using a 12-hour candlestick resolution . . .
The upper drawn resistance line is the same as from the first chart. I have drawn a low-confidence support line to show how the price future path is constrained to bounce back and forth in a dampened oscillation centered at $424. I say low-confidence because the central tendency could very well be some other price points where trading occurred over a period long enough to convince traders that the particular price was fair considering what they knew of the situation.
It is important in my analysis to presume that the bottom is behind us. Because it matters less which particular lilne of support is drawn - any of them that I would draw force a convergence in the month of May. Which comes to my short term price predictions . . .
1. Presuming the bottom is behind us.
the price will never again go below $339.792.
By the end of May the price will be higher than the drawn resistance line, namely above $424.3.
In the month before the new bubble begins, prices will rise on average $7 per day.
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