An unidentified whale has been selling off massive amounts of XRP (at least 200 million), keeping the price low, and making these spikes even more significant. I am wondering what the price would be in absence of whoever is mass liquidating XRP.
I have seen speculation that the XRP sell off is coming from a founder, Jed specifically, Ripple Labs, or a partner. RL seems to have
unofficially implied that they are not involved. Jed could be using his stash to fund his super-secret-bitcoin-project, but despite speculation, I have not seen any firm indication that he has had a falling out with entirety of RL. I doubt the partner angle, as RL has been in incenting partners with XRP forgivable loans, and CrossCoin (loosely associated with RL) is funding startups with XRP. I would guess founder(s), or Bitcoin whale(s) that got into XRP early.
RL is building incredible momentum, between banks evaluating Ripple (12+ unnamed banks, spanning Europe, Canada, and the US)/outright adotion (fidor.de), a startup incubator, a slew of new software projects, increased community outreach, and new hires (including a resource fully allocated to Contracts). At the same time, the community itself is releasing new projects and businesses at an increased rate. Ripple forums are transitioning from idle speculation based on scant details, to in depth discussion of all the newcomers to the ecosystem and announcements. At least 2 payments industry awards have been snagged that I am aware of. And then there is the instance of W3C and St. Louis Federal Reserve members highlighting the potential of the protocol.
I consider XRP to be at least as valuable as Bitcoin, in raw utility and potential. Its ecosystem is much less mature, but growing at an increasingly rapid clip. In saying I consider XRP as valuable as Bitcoin, that is not 1 XRP == 1 Bitcoin, but from a market cap perspective.
(21 million BTC / 100 billion XRP) * (individual value of BTC)
...is the first major milestone I would expect for individual XRP value. I think that would come out close to $0.10, which for me personally makes the current (depressed) price of ~$0.006 an attractive opportunity. I do not recommend anyone invest in XRP, with any expectation RL should be acting as a Bitcoin clone hype team. RL is focused on the protocol, network, attracting partners, and building trust---as opposed to the daily or short term value of XRP.