Noone can predict the future in that case, whales can do as they please, but its important to observe the market and try to figure out where the pressure is aplied, and with what reason.
That way it is not important will the market price go up or down, you will allways have your share.
Topic: Ross Ulbricht 140k bitcoins potential auction and market crash in future. - page 3. (Read 7265 times)
June 29, 2014, 06:26:28 PM
June 29, 2014, 01:10:28 PM
This all depends on how much demand there is off-exchange, which is always difficult to gauge. But it does seem that Barry Silbert, Pantera, some others have been loading up. Whale accumulation style. And Circle gonna need a lot of coins....
June 29, 2014, 12:25:53 PM
those coins will be sold off-exchange, so it has no price influence.
yes it does,.. indirectly and with latency, but it does: the off-exchange sale satisfies a demand that would otherwise be present (in some way) on the exchanges.
It's all connected.
June 29, 2014, 07:56:07 AM
It is easy to work out.
The effect of these coins being stolen by the FBI was to temporarily reduce the effective total money supply. This is equivalent to deflation and would have generated an increase in the price (all things being equal). The effect of them being sold by the FBI is to increase the effective total money supply. This is equivalent to inflation and will generate a reduction in the price (all things being equal).
However, the effect should be minimal. 140k coins is about 1% of the total supply, so all things being equal the price of BTC relative to dollars would fall by no more than 1%. Of course short term effects due to panic, FUD etc (e.g. the OP) might be greater, but that has nothing to do with the fundamentals.
The effect of these coins being stolen by the FBI was to temporarily reduce the effective total money supply. This is equivalent to deflation and would have generated an increase in the price (all things being equal). The effect of them being sold by the FBI is to increase the effective total money supply. This is equivalent to inflation and will generate a reduction in the price (all things being equal).
However, the effect should be minimal. 140k coins is about 1% of the total supply, so all things being equal the price of BTC relative to dollars would fall by no more than 1%. Of course short term effects due to panic, FUD etc (e.g. the OP) might be greater, but that has nothing to do with the fundamentals.
June 29, 2014, 05:46:50 AM
those coins will be sold off-exchange, so it has no price influence.
yes it does,.. indirectly and with latency, but it does: the off-exchange sale satisfies a demand that would otherwise be present (in some way) on the exchanges.
It's all connected.
June 28, 2014, 08:37:06 PM
those coins will be sold off-exchange, so it has no price influence.
If they are being used, they will eventually end up the the eco system and in the exchange.
June 28, 2014, 08:02:23 AM
those coins will be sold off-exchange, so it has no price influence.
June 28, 2014, 04:27:25 AM
So if 30k bitcoins from the current FBI auction of silk road coins has contributed to the bitcoin price crashing hard - if the FBI win their case and get to sell Ross Ulbricht's 140k bitcoin stash will the bitcoin price literally crash?
Thoughts people?
Anyone have any updates about Ross Ulbricht's case?
What are his prospects of success?
If his chances of success are slim then smart bitcoin traders should be aware that the market could potentially flash crash at any moment depending on the outcome/announcement by law enforcement. We now have a precedent that American law enforcement are eager to sell seized bitcoins and rake in the cash.
Blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah.
Oh, sorry, are we having a serious discussion?
Coindesk has copied my post:
June 27, 2014
"In any case, the elephant in the room is the rest of the stash, the remaining 144,000 bitcoins seized from Silk Road."
http://www.coindesk.com/citi-examines-potential-impact-silk-road-auction-bitcoin-price/
June 26, 2014, 07:26:49 PM
SO WHY THE FUCK WOULD SOMEONE WITH THAT MUCH MONEY DUMP THOSE COINS AND LOSE TENS OF MILLIONS?
I hate to say this out loud - but I had this scary thought...
This would actually be a cheap investment for the banking system if they collectively thought that doing this was enough to kill bitcoin forever as a competitor.
Given current market volatility and liquidity depth, I imagine a large tranche of coins like this is more likely to sell at below market price than the 30K SR coins being auctioned in next few hours. A 50% discount to market would not be out of the question for 140K coin block.
But let's assume for arguments sake (and to keep my maths easy), that they fetch $500 each. So 140K coins would be $70M. Even at market ($600) it's only $84M worth of coins. A lot to you and I maybe, but a drop in the ocean to banks... after all they can simply create the money!
I can imagine a cartel of 10 or 20 large banks chipping in say $10M each, buying the 140K coins and then dumping them onto the market over a short few days or weeks to hammer the Bitcoin price down to $xx level or lower. Protect their monopoly on the banking system and write off any loss to minimise taxes - it's a win-win for the banks, isn't it?
I'm bullish on bitcoin and usually stay away from tinfoil-hat conspiracy theories - but this scares me...
There must be a hole or two in this thought bubble - anyone??
Posted from Bitcointa.lk - #joL4QKTu8VqQATxq
The flaw is that by the time the legal cases are sorted out the BTC/USD rate could very easily be way above 500 by a few orders of magnitude. I would suggest reading the defence submission here http://www.coindesk.com/ross-ulbricht-attorney-irs-guidance-motion-dismiss-charges/ first and the many complex legal issues it raises. If anyone is prepared to write a call option on BTC/USD with a strike price of 500 USD for the duration of this trail and any subsequent appeals I may be interested, provided of course sufficient collateral is provided.
June 26, 2014, 07:17:53 PM
The most efficient way for banks to deal with Bitcoin is to jump on board. The big threat to banks is the use of Bitcoin as a payment system, not the use of Bitcoin as a store of value. The only way to kill the former is to ensure massive volatility forever. It's just not profitable to attempt this.
June 26, 2014, 07:11:31 PM
SO WHY THE FUCK WOULD SOMEONE WITH THAT MUCH MONEY DUMP THOSE COINS AND LOSE TENS OF MILLIONS?
I hate to say this out loud - but I had this scary thought...
This would actually be a cheap investment for the banking system if they collectively thought that doing this was enough to kill bitcoin forever as a competitor.
Given current market volatility and liquidity depth, I imagine a large tranche of coins like this is more likely to sell at below market price than the 30K SR coins being auctioned in next few hours. A 50% discount to market would not be out of the question for 140K coin block.
But let's assume for arguments sake (and to keep my maths easy), that they fetch $500 each. So 140K coins would be $70M. Even at market ($600) it's only $84M worth of coins. A lot to you and I maybe, but a drop in the ocean to banks... after all they can simply create the money!
I can imagine a cartel of 10 or 20 large banks chipping in say $10M each, buying the 140K coins and then dumping them onto the market over a short few days or weeks to hammer the Bitcoin price down to $xx level or lower. Protect their monopoly on the banking system and write off any loss to minimise taxes - it's a win-win for the banks, isn't it?
I'm bullish on bitcoin and usually stay away from tinfoil-hat conspiracy theories - but this scares me...
There must be a hole or two in this thought bubble - anyone??
Posted from Bitcointa.lk - #joL4QKTu8VqQATxq
That would be just the banks pissing money away. Dropping 140K coins probably will make the price dip for a bit. But it will recover quickly. No one in their right mind would do that.
June 26, 2014, 07:07:20 PM
SO WHY THE FUCK WOULD SOMEONE WITH THAT MUCH MONEY DUMP THOSE COINS AND LOSE TENS OF MILLIONS?
I hate to say this out loud - but I had this scary thought...
This would actually be a cheap investment for the banking system if they collectively thought that doing this was enough to kill bitcoin forever as a competitor.
Given current market volatility and liquidity depth, I imagine a large tranche of coins like this is more likely to sell at below market price than the 30K SR coins being auctioned in next few hours. A 50% discount to market would not be out of the question for 140K coin block.
But let's assume for arguments sake (and to keep my maths easy), that they fetch $500 each. So 140K coins would be $70M. Even at market ($600) it's only $84M worth of coins. A lot to you and I maybe, but a drop in the ocean to banks... after all they can simply create the money!
I can imagine a cartel of 10 or 20 large banks chipping in say $10M each, buying the 140K coins and then dumping them onto the market over a short few days or weeks to hammer the Bitcoin price down to $xx level or lower. Protect their monopoly on the banking system and write off any loss to minimise taxes - it's a win-win for the banks, isn't it?
I'm bullish on bitcoin and usually stay away from tinfoil-hat conspiracy theories - but this scares me...
There must be a hole or two in this thought bubble - anyone??
Posted from Bitcointa.lk - #joL4QKTu8VqQATxq
June 26, 2014, 05:57:30 PM
Those 140k coins aren't going anywhere for a long time. They will tied up in the courts for years, and this case to say the least is very complex. To get an idea of just some of the issues here, take a look at the Free Ross Ulbricht site: http://freeross.org/ When some time in the future the court cases are finally resolved and the prevailing party decides to sell it is likely they will have an impact on the market. It is also possible this impact is bearish and significant. The trouble for a bear trying to play this is that the crash could be from say 1,200,000 USD per BTC to say 600,000 USD per BTC. So a bear selling at say 560 USD per BTC would be out of luck.
The wheels of justice move very slowly and provide ample time for the slaughter of many a bitbear.
The wheels of justice move very slowly and provide ample time for the slaughter of many a bitbear.
June 26, 2014, 05:56:17 PM
so you see JimboToronto's selectively blind logic, he is denying but just telling you the same "don't say the price might go down or bitcoin is not going to the moon for whatever reason, or you will get flamed. the price is going down? no, i don't see it, don't show me, ... ok i see it but it's not true, it can't be, just some stupid weakers dumping cheap coins ... oh no!! the market is crashing but i believe it will raise again!!!! don't agree with me? then gtfo!"
you're the one who makes absurd claims that never come near reality, not him, not anyone else. you.
June 26, 2014, 05:53:26 PM
Better to spare the whole coins into the US population for free than auctioning it and let some billionaire to buy them all.
Why?
Why the US population and not the world population? They were stolen from the world population after all.
they were stolen from ONE american citizen, not the us population or the world population.
June 26, 2014, 05:40:01 PM
The 140k coins simply cannot be sold, unless the general market volume has significantly grown before such an auction.
Anyone wanting to purchase such volume cannot realistically call a price. The market will crash hard if the auction is carried through and the volume cannot support it. It may crash below any possible price the buyer sets. There is no way to predict how low the market will go in this magnitude of a flash crash.
Bearing this in mind and then again, the market will probably not crash having realised the rationale above (noone will buy the full number of coins if trading volume isnt high).
They may pull off sales of a small amount of the coins though. Which again will not affect prices.
Another thing: maybe if US Marshalls change the rules of the auction: "small" lot sizes as we see on this auction round + any one bidder cannot buy more than x number of lots. The last part will also reduce potential market damage, and increase the chance of a successful sale.
Anyone wanting to purchase such volume cannot realistically call a price. The market will crash hard if the auction is carried through and the volume cannot support it. It may crash below any possible price the buyer sets. There is no way to predict how low the market will go in this magnitude of a flash crash.
Bearing this in mind and then again, the market will probably not crash having realised the rationale above (noone will buy the full number of coins if trading volume isnt high).
They may pull off sales of a small amount of the coins though. Which again will not affect prices.Another thing: maybe if US Marshalls change the rules of the auction: "small" lot sizes as we see on this auction round + any one bidder cannot buy more than x number of lots. The last part will also reduce potential market damage, and increase the chance of a successful sale.
June 26, 2014, 04:58:21 PM
I can hardly see a crash... maybe market is manipulated a bit downward to get cheaper coins in the auction. But we have seen worse.
Btw: Is it even clear that the prosecutors have access to the SR coins?
Even if those were auctioned it would just mean a temporary correction - nothing epic.
ya.ya.yo!
Btw: Is it even clear that the prosecutors have access to the SR coins?
Even if those were auctioned it would just mean a temporary correction - nothing epic.
ya.ya.yo!
June 26, 2014, 04:22:24 PM
If auction will be successfully, government's will start massive ban BTC in their countries and seize them and trade.
We can only pray, no one will buy those cheap BTC. And all world decide to BAN FBI.
We can only pray, no one will buy those cheap BTC. And all world decide to BAN FBI.
This guy is on the money. Or something else. One of the two.
What are you talking about? You think is fair, they just stole BitCoins?
June 26, 2014, 03:30:40 PM
Better to spare the whole coins into the US population for free than auctioning it and let some billionaire to buy them all.
Why?
Why the US population and not the world population? They were stolen from the world population after all.
June 26, 2014, 02:41:08 PM
Better to spare the whole coins into the US population for free than auctioning it and let some billionaire to buy them all.
Why?
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