Topic: rpietila public diary - page 7. (Read 86489 times)

I think Mircea Popescu does not behave well towards people that are not as smart as he is, and that he should grow up.

However, his understanding concerning the role of money in summer 2013 is correct, as far as I can see it.

In general I think that buying/owning anything, in anticipation that you can buy more bitcoins with it later, is shorting bitcoin. While this may be a good strategy, we are yet to see the emergence of commodities that can appreciate in value in bitcoin terms. (Casascius coins is the only example that I know of so far.)

We cornered not only the available supply of Casascius coins in Finland, but also the available supply of suites in Hotel Kämp, the premier in Finland:

Yeah, that is for the lazy one.. I also advocated it previously. But now I think the best strategy is to sell on/after the tipping point of an intraday move, and buy back at a flat rate which is set at the 61% fibonacci retracement point of the previous upmove. Increase this limit bid by a faster hourly rate than usd/btc growth (the latter is 0.50% per hour over the last 8 days, so a 0.7-1.0% should do fine).

Yesterday I sold to strength, rather than after the top, and still made money (=more btc in the evening) with this.

Sniffing the top is the difficult part, buyback is automatic.

By short I mean that you hold fiat, after having the bitcoins. It is not short in a traditional meaning of the word, but it is willingly giving up the bitcoins that you could have held instead.

Again you are leaking out sensitive PM info you swedish bastard..

Yes, trading the tickets is allowed, just for the lulz to manifest to the late adopters that a "conference" ticket can actually go to $10,000s when we just send bitcoins to each other.

I am considering, for an additional BTC10 over the ticket, you can send a short wishlist that will be granted to you subject to availability (of the services, not of money, the latter is not limited) For BTC50, you can send a long wishlist.

The last week that I have actively done what I wanted, regardless of price, I have spent perhaps $1,500 in personal expenses, given out $200,000+ of bitcoins, made $30k in trading and fees (this is the most demotivating part right now) and the purchasing power of my bitcoins has increased.

When you have it all, you tend to need very little. Yesterday I spent 60 minutes trying to find water according to my taste. Still it wasn't perfect, but we are getting there... I would pay more for 5 liters of the best water in the world, than for the best champagne. But money cannot buy you good water (for champagne, it does).

Depends on what you're measuring against.

I bought my bitcoins at $5, so technically I would have been richer had I just bought-and-held. But if you look at any two points in time when the price was the same, it's definitely profitable, especially in times when volatility is high. For instance, compared to April 6th, when the price was about the same as today, I've made over 10% gains.

I have reserved this for 9.-12.May 2013.

The parameters are:
- I think it is a great place to have a meetup.
- I have some ideas, many have suggested ideas. There is plenty of time to discuss them even before the event.
- I have sold 3 tickets, the last was for BTC3, incl. full board.
- I have promised that I will always increase the price of ticket, to preserve the early adaptor advantage. Otherwise the bitcoin's volatility will cause people to delay their decision, which will make organising difficult. Only way out is to credibly state that a newcomer will have to always pay more bitcoins than the previous. This will lead to some people signing up rather quickly, which eases my organizing challenges.
- My current thinking is that 30 people would be the maximum, I am fully content with 6 (the current number of guests + 3 hosts) though.
- Howto allocate the admissions, is my problem.

No need to post your ideas, I have been thinking of all possibilities, it is just that I have to make my decision. I cannot alter it afterwards, since that would be unfair. You better be careful when money is involved. This is the reason that my official invitation has been delayed.

+1

I wrote simple Excell, based on your great idea. "You have an AMOUNT of btc. When price DOUBLE, SELL 25%"

In Excell, you can configure (4 parameters) and can see your wealth based on USD/BTC price

1. btc AMOUNT you wish to spend.
2. parameter "when price (DOUBLE=200%)"  you can configure e.g. 5%, 10% 100% ... 1000% as you wish
3. (SELL=%25) change this setting (1%, 2%, 5%, 10%, ... %20, %30)
4. starting selling price  e.g.  $160

Again GREAT IDEA. Now it is EASY, how much and when to sell. As easy as bot can do it. I'll add few REINVEST parameter  "When price HALVES invest 10% from your profit" :-)   Perpetuum mobile

 

Seems that this was a self-fulfilling prophecy:


I had a morning meeting with Roni, explaining to him, that there is no resistance left anywhere in the price going up. No level above $0.15 saw any large volume action. So if you think:

A) bitcoin is a bubble, sell to the strength. I would suggest selling with a predetermined schedule, such as 1% of the remaining holdings per month, or 10-25% every time it doubles.

B) bitcoin is going to $300/mBTC, hold.

C) what is bitcoin??, buy with all your funds that you can afford to lose.

In 1980 there was a glut of physical in all forms coming to the market. But I think it was perhaps 1-2Boz nationally (U.S.), and it was not accompanied with international movements. So the large holders in India did not sell their silver to the U.S., afaik.

We have to remember that the silver price rose by a factor of 35x (10-15x sustained), to effect this move.

The silver price would have to rise by a factor of 10x from its current level, before the scrap sales would see a large increase. It would be accompanied with large investor interest, so the total silver flows would remain anemic any way.

There is only 1-2B investable silver in the world, regardless of the price.

You are obviously not rpietila, as you don't understand exponential function. If it grows 2.375% per day, it will reach $56k in January 2014. Which I think is realistic.

Another fail in your reasoning was this "Bitcoin end up in the oblivion" part, which just does not happen, since there is at least one supernode operating (me) regardless of what others do or think. qed.

rpietila is a mega-bull. Has been as long as I've been paying attention.

Why not have a weekend seminar in some skying resort and actually explain to them how bitcoin works? A huge network of crappy nodes so much more trustworthy and powerful than a "supernode". (btw: this one guy in Bratislava showed his java re-implementation of bitcoin called "supernode", made with "institutional users" in mind). Or is the black swan == switch off interent?

There is plenty in the Internet that is available for bitcoins, even only for bitcoins. Sometimes I employ people from my own pocket just to cut the red tape. I have so many bitcoins, to not care that I cannot deduct it from my corporate profits.

Traditional salaries, rents etc in fiat currently.

You wanted to know if I can become a supernode. Yes, at least for some time. Before moving on to other things (I have already been suggested this, even though I have hardly been playing this level enough yet..). I can easily pay the $50k monthly burnrate of 1.5 class supernode in 1-2 months. That long I estimate it takes to gear up the systems. My weakness is tech, I am too stingy to employ a shadow devteam myself. The guys of that level are expensive.

Tomorrow I have some work in Tallinn. Wednesday await for something cool to be revealed 

A day in my life. After a late-night flight from London, I slept a 3.5 hours, and woke up to my small daughter climbing on me.

At work, the shop was open, so from the top of my head, I traded the following
-32oz silver +850€
-18,400mBTC +40g gold +20oz silver +100€
-$18,000 +148,100mBTC
-110,700mBTC +324g gold
-324g gold +11,400€

This evaluates to:
--------------------------------------------
-12oz silver +12,250€ -$18,000 +40g gold +19,000mBTC
--------------------------------------------
-1,500€ -12oz silver +40g gold +19,000mBTC
--------------------------------------------
-12oz silver +40g gold +3,200mBTC
--------------------------------------------
+14,600mBTC

It is good to have a small and steady profit every day. This one was small, but honestly I did not need to work much for it. Perhaps about 1 hour of work + 1 hour of backend. The rest of the time I spent with my 2 associates telling them about the current and future postings in this thread, honing our trading strategy, walking barefoot on ice, drinking wine and having generally some nice time. I got home after 9 hours in the office.

No, I called quite many dealers, since that was my job.. I could have charged 20% premium on top of everything I was quoted, you just don't forget these things. No reason to downplay this. I think it was October 15. There were small scale "bank runs" (depositors queuing to withdraw for no apparent consumption demand), since the G20 meeting or whatever was scheduled for the weekend, and some in the know considered that the banks all over might not open on Monday.

I had already been confiscated of all of my inventory for bogus charges (which were dropped later), I had withdrawn my meager money from the bank (I have only twice in my life minimized my bank balances in anticipation of a bank run, the latter started March 20, this year, and is still in effect), and made just-in-case contingency plans in case I would not be found. The PM of Finland revealed a year after, that "we were hours away from financial meltdown".

If you run for your life, you just don't forget it. This time it's different, everybody knows what I know. It's all here in this thread.


They can play with physical gold, but as they do it, the dimwit margin traders in COMEX think, that silver should also crash as it's also a pm. So they sell paper silver short, causing the very crash they anticipated. Paper silver is very thin as the physical longs generally don't bother, it's like Mt.Gox really, just a pathetic manipulation joke, I don't even have the account there, lol. The public runs to buy the cheapened physical, causing a run on coin shops, and now they've mostly been out of silver (or with very low inventory) for 3 months already. They need to pretend they don't have silver, since if they tell they do, but just won't sell it because manipulation, it causes an outcry and the feds raid their shops.

That was why they did not sell to me in 10/2008. I was offering to pay too high a premium, I was already on the feds blacklist (my standing inventory was already confiscated), and they did not want to risk their business since they knew I was in trouble because of my internet trolling. Funny that they all knew it.. 

It was one day, yes, but you just don't forget it.

Today I couldn't care less. The leverage is in bitcoin now.

Lol, I did not even say I would What made you think so...

I don't need to do it. The fact that A) there are certain power centers in the world + B) Bitcoin is interesting, guarantees that several entities will do it in the coming weeks and months. I can readily monitor the situation in Helsinki - it's full of this kind of organizing going on, just this thread has invited 10+ people to develop their ideas. Title: "Are you interested in a Bitcoin enterprise of your own + the business ideas".

For every 2.0 operation currently, there are dozens of 3.0's.

No matter how you slice or dice it - bitcoins will go to the moon. This is common knowledge to everyone here.

The new information is, nobody can stop it. (supernode model is just a way to tell it to non-techies like me)

Expect l a r g e buys from wealthy people, as they wake up to the latter..

Let me rephrase so the context is clear:  When the choice is between dismantling the entire government and bitcoin, they'll choose bitcoin.  Especially because 90% of the representatives will already own lots of coins! 

If you think I'm crazy think on these:
No sales tax in the USA for internet purchases (essentially no VAT tax)...
NH state reps were the first politicians to accept bitcoin...
Gold legal tender in Utah and soon arizona http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2013/04/20/arizona-set-to-ok-gold-silver-currency/2100039/
Shire Silver
FinCen implicitly recognizing the legality of bitcoin
Eventually somebody will realize that it is a great way (excuses inflation) to get out of US dollar denominated debt obligations.

A strong top-down government has to have a hard stance, then do a complete turn-around, hoping that that's the correct decision.  That's how governments are "dismantled".  A democracy runs in 10 directions at once potentially indefinitely and is stronger; its like P2P governing, only not quite so much.  Think about this: if the USD tanks tomorrow because all the international holders decide to exchange their holdings for something else, the only thing that will keep imports/exports flowing are US citizens with bitcoin and PM holdings.  Can you imagine that that hasn't occurred to them?

I see the supernode classification as an interesting theoretical exercise. What has been holding back the investments of many of my wealthy clients, has been the insecurity concerning the negative "black swan" events. The prospective investors have no clue, how the bitcoin network functions; therefore they think, there is some probability that it may just "fall apart", resulting in the loss of the value of their bitcoins. What I am presenting to larger audience now, is an easy-to-understand (for the less technically oriented) structure of the network.

There is no way for your bitcoins to become worth $0, as long as there is one entity capable of operating the network. A vague "consensus" of 4237 bitcoin nodes is not needed. If bitcoin suddenly becomes vulnerable, in an extreme case, if the whole devteam gets kidnapped or something as unlikely - the miners and the holders of bitcoins will just give their quiet permission for a less-capable shadow devteam, which the 1 class supernodes will host as a backup. This is not a power grab or anything, bitcoin is an open source software, and the best devteam will any way win in the long run.

Actually I believe Gavin sleeps his nights better when he knows that there are 3-10 fully functional backup teams hosted by the same number of supernodes in about 6-12 months of time. Since he is no longer a single-point-of-failure, there will be no incentive to harm him, as there is no gain for doing so.