arepo, you skipped the part where you de-frauded the people who claimed to know the future in June (this is just a correction!) Back then, the RSI going from "overbought" was an indicator of a super-massive crash. So I don't see what to make of it right now.
I'm aware that you can be more than 50% right by just betting in-trend for the mid-term all the time. Bitcoiners like to follow trends, so this is often right, but if it's not, the delayed reaction is all the more costly. I never saw chartists predict the big trend breaks in a clear way, it was always after-the-fact clarifications that I got to read. And I'm not impressed at "the trend will continue" predictions, because the statement itself can do that without math whatsoever.
In this case, I don't claim to know the future, the trend might as well continue, though I fear we're clearly in an echo bubble then. My expectation value has somehow balanced out, so I sold a part.
How about you Fourier transform the past for a change, and try to find some operation to match classical markets to the result? That would be a kind of "Technical Analysis" I'd find somewhat interesting. There have been some similarities to NASDAQ and Silver, but the time-scales are all strange. Doing this in a formal way might produce some insight.
i am not only going by the trend indicated by the slope of the RSI. i like to use the RSI, Williams's %, Avg Directional Index, MFI, MACD, TRIX, Accum/Distribution, Aroon indicators, Chaikin's analyses, and the price-volume trend. These are all based on (the only significant indicators) price and volume, or represent smoothed averages which can help determine reversals (take a look at the all-time MACD, its zero-line crossover in the second week of December clearly signaled a reversal, and here we are looking at a high of 7.xx after the so-called 'falling knife').
when the indicators agree, it is clear. when they disagree, which is often, there is usually consensus among some and inconclusivity in the others.
as for elliot waves, that is pretty bullshit because of the idea of pattern-finding. our brains will find patterns in anything -- way too subjective. my readings often go along the lines of like when i made the above prediction: that this is a small correction and not a reversal, mostly because after the dump and the spike back up to high $6.xx, the slow zigzagging down to the wall at $6.00 was underwritten by an UPTREND in the accumulation/distribution line. this almost always indicates that the current price trend is a false flag and is a short-term correction to the trend. four hours after the dump while everyone was preaching gloom and doom i said we wouldn't see prices below $6.00; we still haven't. in fact, bid and ask volume have filled in and if you look at Gox we seem to have almost stabilized. Meanwhile, all the bullish indicators that INAU saw when he predicted breaking $8 are still bullish, and even the RSI is out of the overbought zone because of our convenient correction. we shall continue our upwards march.
as for comparing BTC to classical markets -- why should there be resemblance? i rely on the data that makes up the history of the BTC market, because that is the only data we have to go on to get a feel for how the BTC market will behave in the future. bitcoincharts is my favorite site haha
IT'S ALIIIIVEE!