Runaway miner acquisition "syndrome" - page 2.

notlist3d

legendary

Activity: 1456

Merit: 1000

Quote from: enquirer on January 31, 2016, 10:09:18 PM

Looking at https://blockchain.info/pools, most of the recent difficulty increase seems to come from BTCC pool. Bitfury or bitmain mostly mine in their own pools, so the question is, what is the mysterious force behind BTCC rise?

I don't think it's two mysterious it chances are is new gear. I guess the question is who exactly. It can be people trying to get last bit out of some miners. Say for example on S7 chances are they want to pump some out and get most they can before having.

At some point (if not already) bitfury will be pumping out as much as they can. They have shown video off chips, which most others have not on next gen. Next gen is what really will be huge when it replaces older gear. Which some might be doing already. With most mining companies being privately held, them saying their plans does not really benefit them.

mwizard

full member

Activity: 203

Merit: 100

My personal belief is that the hashing growth is from the large mining farms rolling out 16nm miners. 16nm miners are typically 5 times more energy efficient than miners such as the Antminer S5. They have obsoleted 28 nm miners.

KNC has had 16nm miners since about June 2015, when their hash rate went from about 15 Petahash to about 35 Petahash. We know Bitfury has them. KNC and Bitfury are easy to follow as they are both European groups and need to keep their investors informed of developments. Who knows what others are doing, especially the China based groups. I assume they are not sitting idle.

I see teams of technicians currently working along the isles in large mining farms slowly replacing the 28nm miners with 16nm miners.

I do not see the hashing growth as coming from hobbyists with a small number of S7s.

enquirer

sr. member

Activity: 306

Merit: 257

Looking at https://blockchain.info/pools, most of the recent difficulty increase seems to come from BTCC pool. Bitfury or bitmain mostly mine in their own pools, so the question is, what is the mysterious force behind BTCC rise?

Searing

copper member

Activity: 2898

Merit: 1464

Clueless!

Quote from: philipma1957 on January 29, 2016, 10:04:04 AM

lots of good points.

All my gear will be up for sale in april

I have to do this every year.

My power costs have a summer jump from about 9 cents (counting free heat)

to 18 cents counting cooling in May. So all my gear has to move in April.

The current diff is 120 based on 859ph of hash.

Last jump for a four day period we averaged 970ph.

So without any new stuff we could move from 120 diff to 135 diff

All the yoyo moves have happened since bitfury put up the 40 megawatt plant.

I suspect they are the biggest force in diff rise.

avalon6's from blockC are about 1700 and a new amount came in yet to be sold and not all online

so 1700 x 3.3 th = 5.6 ph if they sell all their other new shipment it will be about 7ph more that is only 12.6ph

s-7's sell and sell a lot over 70ph based on bitmaintechs btc addy's but that is only 80ph

I think bitfury's plant is the driving force of growth.

sept 4 407 ph
jan 26 859 ph

so 452 ph added but more like 600ph

I believe bitfury runs 200 to 350 ph of this growth
I believe they see saw the hash due to the heat it makes

the tractor trailer sized container can handle 1.5 megawatts of power.
All the evidence I see point to them using these or a prototype of these.

http://bitfury.com/products#container-datacenter

(removed pic)

Well I'm a bit unclear are you 'completely' out due to the btc diff rise and your electric cost rise AFTER say this summer?

so say AFTER this ..do you see a way for yourself to get back into it? (me I know I'm out for good at 13.7c kwh regular and 0.966 kwh winter ..home miner wise when my equip dies)

You'd be the last to fold imho unless ..there was just NO WAY to pull it off...so just making sure is that your view and you are 'out' say by fall 2016...and 'unlikely' ever to return?

Dalkore

legendary

Activity: 1330

Merit: 1026

Mining since 2010 & Hosting since 2012

What is being highlighted is how the price does not "have" to pay friendly compared to mining ROI. Miner's don't for the most part determine the price of Bitcoin. It will be interesting to see how this plays out once we get to a point where the newest units are only breakeven ROI.

philipma1957

legendary

Activity: 4172

Merit: 8075

'The right to privacy matters'

lots of good points.

All my gear will be up for sale in april

I have to do this every year.

My power costs have a summer jump from about 9 cents (counting free heat)

to 18 cents counting cooling in May. So all my gear has to move in April.

The current diff is 120 based on 859ph of hash.

Last jump for a four day period we averaged 970ph.

So without any new stuff we could move from 120 diff to 135 diff

All the yoyo moves have happened since bitfury put up the 40 megawatt plant.

I suspect they are the biggest force in diff rise.

avalon6's from blockC are about 1700 and a new amount came in yet to be sold and not all online

so 1700 x 3.3 th = 5.6 ph if they sell all their other new shipment it will be about 7ph more that is only 12.6ph

s-7's sell and sell a lot over 70ph based on bitmaintechs btc addy's but that is only 80ph

I think bitfury's plant is the driving force of growth.

sept 4 407 ph
jan 26 859 ph

so 452 ph added but more like 600ph

I believe bitfury runs 200 to 350 ph of this growth
I believe they see saw the hash due to the heat it makes

the tractor trailer sized container can handle 1.5 megawatts of power.
All the evidence I see point to them using these or a prototype of these.

http://bitfury.com/products#container-datacenter

RichBC

hero member

Activity: 588

Merit: 500

I suspect that we have a bit to much Greed and not enough Fear? I think making money with the current generation of miner will involve moving them on a little earlier than you would ideally like in order not to get caught up in the glut as we approach the halving?

Rich

SFR10

legendary

Activity: 2968

Merit: 3406

Crypto Swap Exchange

Perhaps what's on their mind is to buy as much as they could in order to mine and earn as fast as they could so they get some good earnings before the halving and a little bit of faster ROI before the halving and to go by what would they get after it.

RichBC

hero member

Activity: 588

Merit: 500

Yes price increase was doing a good job of offsetting the Difficulty increase, so hopefully the price will recover at some point. However with continued 10% and the halving I just can't see the current generation being profitable at any normal Electricity price?

Far from certain to me that we will see a very large price increase to offset this, more likely is that you will have to have the latest, Bitfury etc 14nm based miners to make money. I think there are going to be a lot of Avalon6 / S7 on the market at some point?

Rich

QuintLeo

legendary

Activity: 1498

Merit: 1030

I've sold 4 of my S5s via Amazon over the last few weeks.

They sell, just not fast - and seems like they all sold during Bitcoin price jumps above $400.

Now if I could get the bloody Post Office to quit yoyoing one of them.....

adaseb

legendary

Activity: 3738

Merit: 1708

I think people slowed down in the last week or so. 2 weeks ago price was looking great at $430 and difficulty wasn't as bad.

Lots of S5 in the classifieds and nobody is buying anything.

I think everybody predicted the difficulty increase but no the price decrease.

Biodom

legendary

Activity: 3738

Merit: 3848

Since this is speculation...I did not want to post it in hardware.
Seriously...people are continually buying miners at an incredible speed, adding 80-100 petahashes (10%) each 12 days or so.
Avalon's at $1100 and S7 at ~$1000 are flying off the shelves.

I understand the need for playing with new tech as well as gambling or just being very optimistic.
However, this can be accomplished with just one or two of each kind.
Beyond that, I cannot grasp the rational thought behind this at this very moment...however, maybe there is a factor that I am not aware of.
Perhaps, people are counting on a halving price bump as if it is a given.

I plug in the numbers and it came out that even at a lower end electricity cost, Avalon and/or S7 is $750-900 in red by May, when, if the current trend continues, they will seize to become profitable at 9c/kwh.

This is just mining without considering other aspects (development) that I am not talking about here.

Topic: Runaway miner acquisition "syndrome" - page 2. (Read 2058 times)