You guys are thinking about this all wrong.
It's not really about ROI or even about rate of return.
It's about creating wealth in a form that isn't taxable.
If you were given the choice between bitcoin mining with under a year ROI (and that's all in bitcoin)... vs a typical investment where you pay capital gains tax... Which would your prefer?
Nevermind that bitcoin mining is going to spank the rate of return of any traditional investment.
At the place you're talking about (where the asic market is saturated, and it comes down to power consumption) then all you've got is a tax evasion plan... not an investment.
Topic: Running some ASIC numbers... - page 2. (Read 3564 times)
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The only point to buying ASICs and mining, is if you get more profit than just bying BTC directly.
But what about the fun? Mining is FUN! I enjoyed the braindamage caused by noise as much as I could in the good old GPU times. ASICs kinda starts the game from the beginning again.+ you have a collection of strange devices which purpose is unknown to most of the regular humans.
"What's that strange noisy silver/black box you have here?"
"This? Not a big deal, they are just sitting there protecting the largest distributed P2P network in the world... and creating money."
Somthing like this: http://fc03.deviantart.net/fs70/f/2012/185/7/3/the_internet_by_surlana-d261zl2.jpg
If Bitcoins continue to appreciate then that keeps miners profits higher and could offset the huge increase in difficulty. Once all that capacity comes online, Difficulty will be around 65 million.
If Bitcoins continue to appreciate then that keeps
The only point to buying ASICs and mining, is if you get more profit than just bying BTC directly.
(OK, yeah, there is that whole secure the network thing.. at 500Thash I think that is safely covered already)
Sigg
If they want to keep selling the asics, they will need to lower the price.
This is a cicle that will end when you can buy 1TH at 1000$ and the biggest cost of the TCO will be the eletric energy.
When this happens, I will buy.
This is a cicle that will end when you can buy 1TH at 1000$ and the biggest cost of the TCO will be the eletric energy.
When this happens, I will buy.
Yeah.. this is kinda what I was thinking also.. With current GPU mining, there is a balance between cost of hardware and electricity.. With the current state of ASIC, that balance is gone. The only way that balance will be restored is for the cost of ASICs to nosedive. That nosedive is going to cause all kinds of ROI pain for anyone (except early, existing orders) that purchase at current ASIC prices. If you aren't already in line, to late. Best to just sit things out, get a big tub of popcorn, and watch the blood flow.
Once things are back in balance, we'll be back to the historical "mine if your cost of electric is 25 cents or lower" At this point, I'll be looking to pick up a bunch of 2nd hand ASICS at serious discount prices.+
Sigg
If they want to keep selling the asics, they will need to lower the price.
This is a cicle that will end when you can buy 1TH at 1000$ and the biggest cost of the TCO will be the eletric energy.
When this happens, I will buy.
This is a cicle that will end when you can buy 1TH at 1000$ and the biggest cost of the TCO will be the eletric energy.
When this happens, I will buy.
If Bitcoins continue to appreciate then that keeps miners profits higher and could offset the huge increase in difficulty. Once all that capacity comes online, Difficulty will be around 65 million.
Just running some numbers here..
Avalon batch 1: 20 Thash
Avalon batch 2: 40 Thash
Avalon tradins: 20 Thash (trade ins are not part of batch 2.)
Total Avalon by May: 80 Thash
BFL -- with the pictures that were recently posted of the BFL (non-asic-populated) boards, I'm now in the camp that I believe BFL will be shipping a product that at least comes close to their stated goals of 7.5 Ghash per chip. Having said that, I've seen batch numbers ranging from 15K chips to 100K chips.. At this point the most plausible I've seen are an initial batch of 15K, followed closely by another 15K followed by a 35K batch... Going with a gut feeling partially based on all the BFL adds I'm seeing, and how active their forums are, I'm thinking they have all 3 batches sold. So, allowing for some defects, and rounding I'm guessing:
BFL batch 1: 100 Thash
BFL batch 2: 100 Thash
BFL batch 3: 220 Thash
Total BFL by may: 420 Thash
Soo.. the way I see it, there is already 500 Thash of existing paid for pre-orders. Factoring in existing FPGA's, free electric GPU's, Goliath, other ASICs, aliens from Omnicron, and what-not, it looks to me like if you were to order an ASIC right now, the difficulty would be at least 75MM by the time you got it.
Using the profitability calculator over at bitcoinx.. and figuring another 4x rise in difficulty over the following year, I get a ROI of 250 days.. and a net profit over 2 years of around $500.
Figuring only a doubling in difficulty for each subsequent year gives a 190 day ROI and a 2 year profit of $1750.
Now, the question is: After the pre-orders are all filled, will the ASIC vendors reign in production (only 2x)? or will they keep pumping out units (4x plus)? I'm leaning towards thinking they'll keep pumping them out, even if that means they have to lower the prices to do it....
Going with that 250 day ROI.. In just about every other business in existence, a 250 day ROI would be absolutely orgasmic... Whats different about this? Well, one must keep in mind that mining returns are not linear (unlike most other businesses).. The vast majority of your returns will be front loaded. If you assume that the ASIC companies will do what it takes (lower prices) to keep selling units, your residual income after you hit ROI is going to be minimal.
Conclusion: I haven't already ordered an ASIC, I'd be better off just buying bitcoins instead.
Note: I purposefully did not factor in the possibility of BTC gaining in value vs. $$. I figure that any such gain (or loss) would be offset 1:1 when comparing mining BTC vs. outright buying BTC.
Now, what am I missing?
Sigg
Avalon batch 1: 20 Thash
Avalon batch 2: 40 Thash
Avalon tradins: 20 Thash (trade ins are not part of batch 2.)
Total Avalon by May: 80 Thash
BFL -- with the pictures that were recently posted of the BFL (non-asic-populated) boards, I'm now in the camp that I believe BFL will be shipping a product that at least comes close to their stated goals of 7.5 Ghash per chip. Having said that, I've seen batch numbers ranging from 15K chips to 100K chips.. At this point the most plausible I've seen are an initial batch of 15K, followed closely by another 15K followed by a 35K batch... Going with a gut feeling partially based on all the BFL adds I'm seeing, and how active their forums are, I'm thinking they have all 3 batches sold. So, allowing for some defects, and rounding I'm guessing:
BFL batch 1: 100 Thash
BFL batch 2: 100 Thash
BFL batch 3: 220 Thash
Total BFL by may: 420 Thash
Soo.. the way I see it, there is already 500 Thash of existing paid for pre-orders. Factoring in existing FPGA's, free electric GPU's, Goliath, other ASICs, aliens from Omnicron, and what-not, it looks to me like if you were to order an ASIC right now, the difficulty would be at least 75MM by the time you got it.
Using the profitability calculator over at bitcoinx.. and figuring another 4x rise in difficulty over the following year, I get a ROI of 250 days.. and a net profit over 2 years of around $500.
Figuring only a doubling in difficulty for each subsequent year gives a 190 day ROI and a 2 year profit of $1750.
Now, the question is: After the pre-orders are all filled, will the ASIC vendors reign in production (only 2x)? or will they keep pumping out units (4x plus)? I'm leaning towards thinking they'll keep pumping them out, even if that means they have to lower the prices to do it....
Going with that 250 day ROI.. In just about every other business in existence, a 250 day ROI would be absolutely orgasmic... Whats different about this? Well, one must keep in mind that mining returns are not linear (unlike most other businesses).. The vast majority of your returns will be front loaded. If you assume that the ASIC companies will do what it takes (lower prices) to keep selling units, your residual income after you hit ROI is going to be minimal.
Conclusion: I haven't already ordered an ASIC, I'd be better off just buying bitcoins instead.
Note: I purposefully did not factor in the possibility of BTC gaining in value vs. $$. I figure that any such gain (or loss) would be offset 1:1 when comparing mining BTC vs. outright buying BTC.
Now, what am I missing?
Sigg
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