woah good job mathwhiz today!!
i saw MathWhiz a while ago down with -4BTC profit.. its a good news for the investors xD
Indeed, He lost all his winnings. Ofc those who invested will enjoy the loss of this guy lol. I wish him good luck, He might try to win back.
i
if this would be the situation i guess investor should stay alert to either invest or divest, since he is basically roller coaster - ing his profit, down and up, the best way to maximize profit is to invest while he is on profit and hope he burn them back
So I just read few latest posts from this looong topic
:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=610339.920This, exactly. Because each roll is an independent event you never know if you're in the middle of a 100 loss streak. However, some part of me thinks it also has to be true that rolling consecutive losses into infinity is also highly improbably and that longer and longer streaks of losses have to be more and more improbable. So I always have a hard time rectifiying these two facts: the independence of each roll and the increasing unlikelyhood of increasingly large streaks.
Well, look at it this way:
Streaks of length 20 are twice as common as streaks of length 21, which are twice as common as streaks of length 22, etc.
And streaks of length 20 are exactly as common as streaks of length 21 or more (assuming a 50/50 game).
To see that last point, suppose streaks of length exactly 20 occur with probability p. Streaks of length 21 will occur with half that probability (p/2), Length 22 with probability p/4, and so on. So the probability of a streak of length 21 or more is p/2 + p/4 + p/8 + ... = p(1/2 + 1/4 + 1/8 + ...) = p.
By pre-rolling until you hit 20 losses in a row, you've probably had to make a million or so rolls. And now you're wondering whether the streak will end at 20, or go on to be more than 20. Well as we've just seen, the probability of those two things is the same. probability p it will end at 20, and probability p*(1/2+1/4+1/8+...) = p that it goes to length 21 or more.
Same rule applies to your explanation. All bets are an independent events, no matter who place the bets and when he place the bets. All that matter to investor is how many bets and how much wager the site got. Wager will define the expected profit, and number of bets indirectly define the variance.
<- some decent wagered amounts today 
