Satoshi Buckets - A game with a winning strategy! 1 BTC GIVEAWAY, 0.3 BTC LEFT. - page 2.

bitshy

newbie

Activity: 42

Merit: 0

THIRD GIVEAWAY DAY RESULTS!

This time I went with a slightly different method of selecting the winner, which is a lot easier to administer manually and less error prone. (It also slightly benefits people who enter in smaller rounds over larger rounds. Sorry, but I do think the simplification is worth it.) Essentially, the block hash is now used to pick the winning transaction, and then to select an entry at random from it.

So, the last considered block was 00000000000000e9e6d637cadd9059c0ab1cf11175b8f25722ad00270fd01265. This selects the 19th transaction, 5fda6b83c423cad6fdf692937bc5033bd06fa0cc613120fd88a3ce628287008e, and the first entry from that transaction.

CONGRATULATIONS 1BdHQJKjQBn3eKpLWBNNw9kqURrPDRopeY, YOU WIN 0.1 BTC!

Winning transaction.

Details:

Quote

Last Block Hash:

00000000000000e9e6d637cadd9059c0ab1cf11175b8f25722ad00270fd01265

Transactions (32):
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Selection method:

transaction index = (block hash / 256) % number of transactions
winning entry index = block hash % number of entries in chosen transaction
These indices are 0-based, not 1-based.

Winner:

Last block hash chooses 1st entry from 19th transaction.
1BdHQJKjQBn3eKpLWBNNw9kqURrPDRopeY

fmota

newbie

Activity: 18

Merit: 0

I didn't win. Maybe tomorrow!

bitshy

newbie

Activity: 42

Merit: 0

SECOND GIVEAWAY DAY RESULTS!

This time there were 32 fallen buckets, for a total of 206 entries in the giveaway.

The last block considered was 00000000000000e787eb22c9315c7306ce44f7f1832bc8595b204922c9d87cd5. Divided by 206, that gives us a remainder of 127. So the 128th entry wins. So...

CONGRATULATIONS 14f6R5rve7t23wRsYmXuALDTPJH19WKUci, YOU ARE THE WINNER!

Winning transaction is here.

More details:

Quote

Last block:

00000000000000e787eb22c9315c7306ce44f7f1832bc8595b204922c9d87cd5

Transactions (32):
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Entries (206). (List omitted to keep this post short.)

bitshy

newbie

Activity: 42

Merit: 0

There have been some rather huge buckets lately! There was a round with R=0.125, G=0.19, B=0.15. That was the biggest round yet!

If things like this happen more often, I'll raise the minimum round threshold to 0.05 BTC per bucket, to prevent people from winning a large bucket with a much, much smaller bet amount. (This would once again also reduce back and forth transaction fees.)

bitshy

newbie

Activity: 42

Merit: 0

A little bit of math about the giveaway:

There were 68 entries yesterday. Each 0.005 BTC bet was worth about 2.5 entries on average. Each 0.005 BTC bet gave you around 4% chance to win the giveaway. That means that each 0.005 BTC bet gives you 4% chance to earn 0.1 BTC -- that's 0.004 BTC expected value -- beyond what you already earn from playing Satoshi Buckets.

IN OTHER WORDS, minimum bets are about 80% cheaper thanks to the giveaway. The expected return of a minimum bet is much more than 100%!

These are much better odds than, say, SatoshiDice. (That's why this is a giveaway, not a lottery.)

bitshy

newbie

Activity: 42

Merit: 0

Quote from: counter on June 12, 2013, 04:18:11 AM

Oh alright that makes sense, thanks for explaining that. Interesting game and look forward too playing again. Great job and all the best with the site.

Thank you! And good luck. :-)

counter

hero member

Activity: 798

Merit: 500

Time is on our side, yes it is!

Oh alright that makes sense, thanks for explaining that. Interesting game and look forward too playing again. Great job and all the best with the site.

bitshy

newbie

Activity: 42

Merit: 0

FIRST GIVEAWAY DAY RESULTS!

There were 13 fallen buckets on June 11, 2013, in the GMT time zone. In total, there were 68 entries in the giveaway. The last block hash of any fallen bucket was 00000000000000c3201f1711f70ef1560aa987be5a797bd42a702c09312200c6, which, when divided by 68, gives us a remainder of 10. That means the 11th entry wins.

So who was the winner?

CONGRATULATIONS 13ExrYxnpaSKbVVXFLuX5kYPXSWBr6L6yf, YOU WIN 0.1 BTC!

Here's the proof that I've sent the 0.1 BTC.

All of the details:

Quote

Last block hash:

00000000000000c3201f1711f70ef1560aa987be5a797bd42a702c09312200c6

Transactions considered:
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Address list:

1Gk6r3HUmmCiz6Ak9NyMaDpHTwv711Cm7a
1D4NXs4RUmtxtXs2iSZQEVv4n6McHYggsK
1GuRHgqsRj35f8AR2gwapAwjDRUVgNm6BR
12rDi3sxfS9SRuUdwXuZAEdHEPtC24c438
1PiEx5xZWbpq1avYLEfPvd8Uyj4LeygYie
18WXEwq4yRMmpA5HpRg1FstdAD2coHiDF5
1Q4byFT2LHu1WobfFQ6gTiU9SfneEWDmtH
1Gk6r3HUmmCiz6Ak9NyMaDpHTwv711Cm7a
1KUgCGv7vUWupYPafh42isKtHmw3fXyZM6
1PiEx5xZWbpq1avYLEfPvd8Uyj4LeygYie
13ExrYxnpaSKbVVXFLuX5kYPXSWBr6L6yf
1Gk6r3HUmmCiz6Ak9NyMaDpHTwv711Cm7a
1KUgCGv7vUWupYPafh42isKtHmw3fXyZM6
1Gk6r3HUmmCiz6Ak9NyMaDpHTwv711Cm7a
1McdmTBdRJbRoCHaN6H8MjtJHhVtidSYb9
1PZ59PZp4g3bG6CnYj93XuSK9VmiSALsBu
1KUgCGv7vUWupYPafh42isKtHmw3fXyZM6
13ExrYxnpaSKbVVXFLuX5kYPXSWBr6L6yf
1PiEx5xZWbpq1avYLEfPvd8Uyj4LeygYie
1Gk6r3HUmmCiz6Ak9NyMaDpHTwv711Cm7a
1KUgCGv7vUWupYPafh42isKtHmw3fXyZM6
1McdmTBdRJbRoCHaN6H8MjtJHhVtidSYb9
1PZ59PZp4g3bG6CnYj93XuSK9VmiSALsBu
1Gk6r3HUmmCiz6Ak9NyMaDpHTwv711Cm7a
13BDX2Vbe4w9K4gZACZaWoD98kUxKb1Qzg
1KUgCGv7vUWupYPafh42isKtHmw3fXyZM6
1McdmTBdRJbRoCHaN6H8MjtJHhVtidSYb9
1PZ59PZp4g3bG6CnYj93XuSK9VmiSALsBu
1Gk6r3HUmmCiz6Ak9NyMaDpHTwv711Cm7a
1624bdzpDg8uupuSCZP93YHFZw169d8PUr
1Fcf2HiHhaVYwHxU2RGi4bWpfaz6ARiQs2
1GLadosEkeAsLReqS3yQ51E1R3wVtbJCDF
1J1YxPuhWEQ5DXGPAiZZb2aDUcp4GDkvgi
1KUgCGv7vUWupYPafh42isKtHmw3fXyZM6
1McdmTBdRJbRoCHaN6H8MjtJHhVtidSYb9
1PZ59PZp4g3bG6CnYj93XuSK9VmiSALsBu
1KUgCGv7vUWupYPafh42isKtHmw3fXyZM6
1624bdzpDg8uupuSCZP93YHFZw169d8PUr
1Fcf2HiHhaVYwHxU2RGi4bWpfaz6ARiQs2
1GLadosEkeAsLReqS3yQ51E1R3wVtbJCDF
1Gk6r3HUmmCiz6Ak9NyMaDpHTwv711Cm7a
1J1YxPuhWEQ5DXGPAiZZb2aDUcp4GDkvgi
1McdmTBdRJbRoCHaN6H8MjtJHhVtidSYb9
1PZ59PZp4g3bG6CnYj93XuSK9VmiSALsBu
1J1YxPuhWEQ5DXGPAiZZb2aDUcp4GDkvgi
1Gk6r3HUmmCiz6Ak9NyMaDpHTwv711Cm7a
1D4NXs4RUmtxtXs2iSZQEVv4n6McHYggsK
1BdHQJKjQBn3eKpLWBNNw9kqURrPDRopeY
1624bdzpDg8uupuSCZP93YHFZw169d8PUr
1Ee7wYSE3ZfkNnyRsK7D9KVe8iWUFytChL
1Gk6r3HUmmCiz6Ak9NyMaDpHTwv711Cm7a
1BdHQJKjQBn3eKpLWBNNw9kqURrPDRopeY
1J1YxPuhWEQ5DXGPAiZZb2aDUcp4GDkvgi
1D4NXs4RUmtxtXs2iSZQEVv4n6McHYggsK
1Gk6r3HUmmCiz6Ak9NyMaDpHTwv711Cm7a
1J1YxPuhWEQ5DXGPAiZZb2aDUcp4GDkvgi
1JANv7Vos6h8vgntDtkCQJJCUkd6Bs4MVH
1A2FH6cxgCqafxj4HaZTEAnkkgHv93vqX6
1BdHQJKjQBn3eKpLWBNNw9kqURrPDRopeY
1D4NXs4RUmtxtXs2iSZQEVv4n6McHYggsK
1Gk6r3HUmmCiz6Ak9NyMaDpHTwv711Cm7a
1BdHQJKjQBn3eKpLWBNNw9kqURrPDRopeY
1JANv7Vos6h8vgntDtkCQJJCUkd6Bs4MVH
1A2FH6cxgCqafxj4HaZTEAnkkgHv93vqX6
13xTFcfjBehShU7g3baUawpSAh5rjtqDBw
13ExrYxnpaSKbVVXFLuX5kYPXSWBr6L6yf
1Gk6r3HUmmCiz6Ak9NyMaDpHTwv711Cm7a
1BdHQJKjQBn3eKpLWBNNw9kqURrPDRopeY

Winner:

13ExrYxnpaSKbVVXFLuX5kYPXSWBr6L6yf

Giveaway Transaction:

https://blockchain.info/tx/07c57e96bf21892765de67db467e3ae80b94105eaeb3344c7026dcc276b25f7d

bitshy

newbie

Activity: 42

Merit: 0

Quote from: counter on June 11, 2013, 05:48:08 PM

"Every round one bucket falls, if all buckets have at least ฿0.025"

all buckets have atleast 0.025 but no buckets fell is there any reason why am I missing something? The rounds just keep restarting and the chance percentage keeps going up.

Sorry about the inconvenience! Sometimes one of the bets takes a long time to confirm.

The site tallies up all the bets, including the unconfirmed ones. Once every bucket has a confirmed ฿0.025, one bucket falls. But if some bet takes a long time to confirm, it won't be part of the round, so a round won't trigger.

First giveaway day results are coming right up!

counter

hero member

Activity: 798

Merit: 500

Time is on our side, yes it is!

"Every round one bucket falls, if all buckets have at least ฿0.025"

all buckets have atleast 0.025 but no buckets fell is there any reason why am I missing something? The rounds just keep restarting and the chance percentage keeps going up.

bitshy

newbie

Activity: 42

Merit: 0

Warning: The red bucket on blockchain.info is temporarily out of sync with the actual red bucket. So ignore whatever blockchain.info says right now. This was caused by a floating point rounding error, and it has been fixed moving forward. The current sync issue should just resolve itself with time.

bitshy

newbie

Activity: 42

Merit: 0

Also, every time you win you keep going onto the next round. So at the end of the day, a single bet can count multiple times in the giveaway!

fmota

newbie

Activity: 18

Merit: 0

Quote from: bitshy on June 10, 2013, 07:43:13 PM

GIVEAWAY STARTS NOW!

HOW TO ENTER: Play Satoshi Buckets. Each round you play in gives you a chance to win.

HOW IT WORKS: Every day, one backer wins ฿0.1 randomly!

CAVEAT: This giveaway will be administered manually, so please be patient with the payouts!

The address performing the giveaway is 1Ftr7B5U4DVsCh1q2mh3XLmH25XeeU7P9F, for the record.

This is awesome!

bitshy

newbie

Activity: 42

Merit: 0

There's only been 5 rounds today so far! This means that there's a good chance to win the 0.1 BTC today if you play a round or two!

i3lome

full member

Activity: 210

Merit: 100

Good idea, im about to throw my BTC0.02 in the bucket

bitshy

newbie

Activity: 42

Merit: 0

I simplified the giveaway! My first idea was too complicated. This one is nicer and easier to administer.

bitshy

newbie

Activity: 42

Merit: 0

GIVEAWAY STARTS NOW!

HOW TO ENTER: Play Satoshi Buckets. Each round you play in gives you a chance to win.

HOW IT WORKS: Every day, one backer wins ฿0.1 randomly!

CAVEAT: This giveaway will be administered manually, so please be patient with the payouts!

The address performing the giveaway is 1Ftr7B5U4DVsCh1q2mh3XLmH25XeeU7P9F, for the record.

bitshy

newbie

Activity: 42

Merit: 0

Changes have been made:

Reduced the minimum bet to ฿0.005. (Was ฿0.01.)
Increased the minimum round amount to ฿0.025. (Was ฿0.02.)

This is the best time to try out Satoshi Buckets! The house fee is 0.5% for one more day (then it will be raised to 1%, to try and cover the costs of running the server). The minimum bet is very low now, so it's a good time to try it out.

bitshy

newbie

Activity: 42

Merit: 0

I did a more in-depth analysis of the bucket history. Here's what I extracted.

Mean payouts:

R: x1.05207502692
G: x0.843458794071
B: x1.13571379612

One-round winnings:

R: x0.868529463366
G: x0.680212456483
B: x0.387926613817

Long-term winnings:

R: x1.21928174665
G: x1.12886322565
B: x1.47710518338

Explanation:

Mean payouts: The overall expected value of spending 1 BTC indiscriminately on a given bucket. That is, without any kind of strategy, other than "always bet on a particular bucket".
One-round winnings: The overall expected value of winning a single round, immediately.
Long-term winnings: The overall expected value of winning a single round, after many rounds.

I think it's interesting that a game with simple rules results in so much unknown behavior. I think it's also interesting that the green bucket has been losing so much lately. You'd expect it to always be somewhere in the middle!

bitshy

newbie

Activity: 42

Merit: 0

Satoshi Buckets has passed 250 rounds! In the last 250 rounds:

R has won 146 times, for a total of 1.515 BTC.
G has won 156 times, for a total of 1.352 BTC.
B has won 198 times, for a total of 1.433 BTC.

Topic: Satoshi Buckets - A game with a winning strategy! 1 BTC GIVEAWAY, 0.3 BTC LEFT. - page 2. (Read 4163 times)