If you do not use Powerbet you face no risk of having a voided bet.
Very interesting that you shared a 70% arb a bit after you posted that. Having a line @7 on what is probably the favorite is such an obvious error, that you wouldn't even have a defense if they voided your bet.
The math is just compound interest double check yourself if you'd like.
200*1.02^7*4 = $918
That's assuming the game starts the same day, which doesn't always happen. I've placed arbs (before, not with your service) on events 3-4 days in the future.
Some points I forgot to address.
1. If numerous ultra play books share the same odds what does this mean?
It means there are more arbs!
So the suggestion that these arbs somehow don't count doesn't make sense.
Imagine a book has a $200 limit on a game, but you can exploit the same arb across 3 sites. Assuming they all have a $200 limit you've now placed $800.
Fairlay odds change after a bet is placed, almost every time to balance the books. Cloudbet odds change sometimes after a large BTC amount is placed. Yes, it gives multiple options, but the site you use to counter the first bet will almost always have an odds change.
My stats about the number of arbs aren't exact, and are based on my experience. I spent 3-4 hours one night refreshing the document looking for arbitrages every 15 minutes or so, and only 2 arbs with 1% profit that don't use PowerBet.io came up.
1. With all due respect, you obviously have no idea how the bulk of these sites run compared to their established fiat counterparts.
You would be surprised indeed what they honour.
But yes, such an arb is a palpable error.
2. Wrong.
We've hit multiple palps with no problem.
Once again, with all due respect, perhaps you should spend a few months BTC arbing.
3. No it doesn't assume the bets start on the same day.
You can divide your stake into parts and the same effect can be effectively produced.
For example, imagine each game is spaced 3 days apart, and you place a bet everyday.
You may consider the third day as the initial point and count 30 days after.
4. Provide evidence that once a bet is confirmed at a certain odd, the odds will change.
Unless this is not what you mean by "odds change".
If you mean, odds displayed can change, then this is pretty obvious since Fairlay is an exchange.
Regarding Cloudbet are customers are advised to double check odds before placing bets.
"almost always" - where is your empirical evidence?
5. " I spent 3-4 hours one night refreshing the document looking for arbitrages every 15 minutes or so,"
Indeed, so with so little experience, your vouch provides some insight, but you are not in a position to make assertions about the frequency or type of arbs we display.
Hope we do not come across as hostile, just wish to clarify certain things.