SC clears path for US to sell $4.4 billion in seized Silk Road Bitcoin

Kelward

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Quote from: Lucius on October 09, 2024, 10:28:44 AM

People panic with everything that has to do with the US in relation to BTC, I have no doubt that this event will also have its short-term consequences. Even if the price drops by 10% or more, it will only be a good opportunity for all those who want to buy cheaper, so I don't see this as anything but a possible good opportunity.

However, perhaps the effects will depend on how BTC will be sold - at an auction directly to the best bidders, through the OTC or they will dump them directly on their favorite CEX.

When the US government decides to dump the seized BTC it'll naturally cause a panic because speculations will be very high about price dip. But I wouldn't worry because with my knowledge about Bitcoin, the effect of the massive sales will be on the short term. Price will recover and it'll be business as usual, it's not going to be the first time that we'll be experiencing such a scenerio. The bright side to this is that if the dip happens it'll create an opening for investors that has the funds to accumulate more Bitcoin. Hopefully after price recovery it'll skyrocket and we'll see the anticipated $100k price and beyond, I look forward to it.

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Quote from: DeathAngel on October 11, 2024, 07:34:30 AM

This wouldn’t happen under a Trump administration. I’m not sure why Democrats would see this as any sort of priority when they have an election to try & win in under a month. This just seems like they are trying to annoy Republicans as it serves no real urgent need. Those coins have been hodled for 10 years, why on earth is there a need to sell them now. $4,000,000,000 is one day of US Gov spending, this is politics of revenge by the Democrats.

The coins has been a subject of litigation since 2022. Maybe the government would have auctioned it if not for the legal challenge by Battle Born Investments. You have to be in government to know if there is an urgent need to sell them. Selling it at this time also doesn't make much sense to me since it is believed that the price of Bitcoin will increase during this period. Most crypto enthusiasts want Trump to win the election, believing that he would make better policies. Should we trust politicians?

OgNasty

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That is a lot of Bitcoin that will be hitting the market. No way to spin that. This isn’t the first time though. Bitcoin will survive. Major players may even view it as an opportunity to buy a lot of Bitcoin without moving the market. At some point sales like this will cease to happen and Bitcoin won’t have these headwinds. Just a matter of time.

Faisal2202

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Quote from: stadus on October 09, 2024, 07:11:52 AM

Another news that would impact the price of bitcoin.. will this result to Bitcoin dropping below $60k, or even more

This is bad news for all of us $4.4 Billion worth of BTC will be sold by the government and where will all that money go. That won't be discussed publicly but this selling can cause a huge dump in the price and I doubt the price of BTC can fall even below $55k this time.

We can only assume how bad can happen because here $4.4 billion worth of BTC will be sold, and on the other hand, FTX is going to repay a total of $14 billion to $16 billion in fiat (I am not sure, but I think they will repay in fiat), which might not have a big impact on the market because if money is given in fiat, even half of it, is used to buy BTC, it will recover its price in no time.

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Quote from: stadus on October 11, 2024, 05:55:27 AM

Approved for selling, but no news yet if it’s actually been sold, and people are already reacting to the market.

There’s a lot of news about selling lately, like this one and the FTX refund to its users, but I don’t think the government will dump everything all at once since that might cause panic. Although it’s not new to us, considering the US has regulated exchanges, they probably won’t do something that will hurt people too much by causing a massive drop. The price reaction right now is mostly driven by speculation, but when the actual selling happens, we might not even feel it due to Bitcoin’s large daily volume.

Most of the time these big amounts are not sold like you and I sell these coins. We may deposit our coins to binance or some other exchange, turn it into cash and then withdraw to our bank accounts, this is what a retail investor does. However, when you have 4.4 billion dollars to sell, you do not sell on the market price and crash the market, because that type of trading wouldn't help you neither.

What you do is over the counter trading, meaning you find buyer or buyers, and then you sell it from lower than the market price. Why lower? Because if you sell it on the market then you will drop the price anyway, hence you have to give discounted offer to make sure buyers are interested. So, you make 4 billion dollars instead of 4.4 billion dollars but the market doesn't crash. Although, the price already went down, not because of them selling on the market, but because people got afraid they would, which is a wrong way of thinking how whales get rid of their coins.

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Quote from: fuguebtc on October 10, 2024, 11:05:19 AM

Even if he knows nothing about bitcoin, as long as his administration has politicians who like bitcoin, it makes us optimistic and believe that under his tenure, we will be better. That would certainly be much better than a leader who not only knows nothing about bitcoin but is hostile to it.

In this respect I agree with you, a president who knows nothing about Bitcoin but is loyal to it is much better than a president who knows about Bitcoin but is hostile to it, also the issue of age must be considered as you pointed out.

In the end, I believe that Trump, being a successful economist, will support Bitcoin and will gather around him an administration loyal to Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies because he has come to realize their importance in supporting the American economy.

shield132

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Quote from: Lucius on October 10, 2024, 05:40:25 AM

Sounds familiar to me, although in the past 8 years there have been so many scams related to cryptocurrencies that someone could write a very extensive book about them. However, given that the price of 1 BTC in mid-2016 was around $400 (if my memory serves me well), and that by the end of the year it had more than doubled, I would not say that the scam had any significant impact on the price of BTC.

No, it didn't have a significant impact on the price. If I amn't wrong, people didn't know Hashocean's addresses, so no one could monitor when they were selling their coins but I remember that there were many speculation about how hashocean would quickly sell off coins and because of that speculation, there was a drop of Bitcoin's price but it didn't last long.

Quote from: Lucius on October 10, 2024, 05:40:25 AM

In addition, I think that about $4 billion worth of BTC will not have any significant effects on the price, because not so long ago we had $3 billion worth of BTC sold by the Germans and no disaster happened.

That's why I think that price will dump, the second similar sale in a row and the price doesn't look well right now. It needs a push, if they sell it now, it will be a negative push and we will probably have 50K USD per coin.

Quote from: Lucius on October 10, 2024, 05:40:25 AM

Quote from: shield132 on October 09, 2024, 03:02:57 PM

Btw I bet that their CEX of choice will be Coinbase.

Very likely, it is no secret that CEX has very good relations with the US authorities.

I would die laughing if they sell coins on Binance Grin

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Quote from: DeathAngel on October 11, 2024, 07:34:30 AM

This wouldn’t happen under a Trump administration. I’m not sure why Democrats would see this as any sort of priority when they have an election to try & win in under a month. This just seems like they are trying to annoy Republicans as it serves no real urgent need. Those coins have been hodled for 10 years, why on earth is there a need to sell them now. $4,000,000,000 is one day of US Gov spending, this is politics of revenge by the Democrats.

Maybe, or maybe not - we will never know, however, we do see this as a gesture from democrats.
I do believe that this situation will be eventually resolved and slowly, not affecting the market too much, the funds will be sold.

DeathAngel

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This wouldn’t happen under a Trump administration. I’m not sure why Democrats would see this as any sort of priority when they have an election to try & win in under a month. This just seems like they are trying to annoy Republicans as it serves no real urgent need. Those coins have been hodled for 10 years, why on earth is there a need to sell them now. $4,000,000,000 is one day of US Gov spending, this is politics of revenge by the Democrats.

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Quote from: stadus on October 11, 2024, 05:55:27 AM

Quote from: TravelMug on October 11, 2024, 05:01:30 AM

It did react to the sales, as we have seen the price goes below $60k in the last 24 hours. But now we have forgotten about this so called negative news, as the price is already at $60,800. So that's how quick the market react to bad news and how quick smart investors taking advantage of it and buying at the right time.

And maybe they are selling because they don't what Trump to have this huge amount of Bitcoin when he wins the US election, Tongue

Although it might be good for America to hold and be a Bitcoin holder or at least they have some reserves, but I guess it's not on their plate and wanted to just disposed of the seized Bitcoin.

Approved for selling, but no news yet if it’s actually been sold, and people are already reacting to the market.

There’s a lot of news about selling lately, like this one and the FTX refund to its users, but I don’t think the government will dump everything all at once since that might cause panic. Although it’s not new to us, considering the US has regulated exchanges, they probably won’t do something that will hurt people too much by causing a massive drop. The price reaction right now is mostly driven by speculation, but when the actual selling happens, we might not even feel it due to Bitcoin’s large daily volume.

Yeah, I also thought about it - BTC is too big to shake it up that much, and even then, events like that are opportunities for everybody to get better positions, and on BTC, it would be seen as a piece of freshly baked bread Grin

We will see how it goes eventually.

CryptSafe

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Quote from: TravelMug on October 11, 2024, 05:01:30 AM

Quote from: CryptSafe on October 11, 2024, 04:54:49 AM

Definitely, the market would react to such sales be it through auctioning or through exchange but however, the process should be open and transparent because politicians seems to be very funny at all times. I would not be surprised seeing them doing it quick before the [Presidential election so they could get it fast than for a new government to take over it without them getting anything from it

This would be a good benefit for the exchange they would end up choosing if they think of using an exchange for the sales and also there would likely be other benefits attached to buyers who would buy directly from them if auctioning is their resolve.

It did react to the sales, as we have seen the price goes below $60k in the last 24 hours. But now we have forgotten about this so called negative news, as the price is already at $60,800. So that's how quick the market react to bad news and how quick smart investors taking advantage of it and buying at the right time.

And maybe they are selling because they don't what Trump to have this huge amount of Bitcoin when he wins the US election, Tongue

Although it might be good for America to hold and be a Bitcoin holder or at least they have some reserves, but I guess it's not on their plate and wanted to just disposed of the seized Bitcoin.

Your thoughts are right, maybe they already see the possibility of Trump winning the election if not why did they not sell it since they were in in office its now that the elections are close they are quick to sell it because of the fear of loosing out.

Looking at the volume and amount equivalent, that could be a good investment to hold onto for years by the government but I believe greed made them do that so quickly. Well, we never can tell but that is just a good reserve that could turn out in hundreds of billions in the future. As a government that is what I expected them to have thought about for the future of the country they claim to love and are serving rather than being in a haste to sell such asset when they know how valuable it is.

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Quote from: TravelMug on October 11, 2024, 05:01:30 AM

It did react to the sales, as we have seen the price goes below $60k in the last 24 hours. But now we have forgotten about this so called negative news, as the price is already at $60,800. So that's how quick the market react to bad news and how quick smart investors taking advantage of it and buying at the right time.

And maybe they are selling because they don't what Trump to have this huge amount of Bitcoin when he wins the US election, Tongue

Although it might be good for America to hold and be a Bitcoin holder or at least they have some reserves, but I guess it's not on their plate and wanted to just disposed of the seized Bitcoin.

Approved for selling, but no news yet if it’s actually been sold, and people are already reacting to the market.

There’s a lot of news about selling lately, like this one and the FTX refund to its users, but I don’t think the government will dump everything all at once since that might cause panic. Although it’s not new to us, considering the US has regulated exchanges, they probably won’t do something that will hurt people too much by causing a massive drop. The price reaction right now is mostly driven by speculation, but when the actual selling happens, we might not even feel it due to Bitcoin’s large daily volume.

FortuneFollower

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Quote from: TravelMug on October 11, 2024, 05:01:30 AM

Quote from: CryptSafe on October 11, 2024, 04:54:49 AM

Definitely, the market would react to such sales be it through auctioning or through exchange but however, the process should be open and transparent because politicians seems to be very funny at all times. I would not be surprised seeing them doing it quick before the [Presidential election so they could get it fast than for a new government to take over it without them getting anything from it.

This would be a good benefit for the exchange they would end up choosing if they think of using an exchange for the sales and also there would likely be other benefits attached to buyers who would buy directly from them if auctioning is their resolve.

It did react to the sales, as we have seen the price goes below $60k in the last 24 hours. But now we have forgotten about this so called negative news, as the price is already at $60,800. So that's how quick the market react to bad news and how quick smart investors taking advantage of it and buying at the right time.

And maybe they are selling because they don't what Trump to have this huge amount of Bitcoin when he wins the US election, Tongue

Although it might be good for America to hold and be a Bitcoin holder or at least they have some reserves, but I guess it's not on their plate and wanted to just disposed of the seized Bitcoin.

Yeah, only time will tell, however, the reserves will be created eventually, in my opinion Grin

People and the market, in general, do forget things quickly, however, that doesn't mean that there won't be a nail struck with such an event on the price of BTC.

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Quote from: CryptSafe on October 11, 2024, 04:54:49 AM

Definitely, the market would react to such sales be it through auctioning or through exchange but however, the process should be open and transparent because politicians seems to be very funny at all times. I would not be surprised seeing them doing it quick before the [Presidential election so they could get it fast than for a new government to take over it without them getting anything from it.

This would be a good benefit for the exchange they would end up choosing if they think of using an exchange for the sales and also there would likely be other benefits attached to buyers who would buy directly from them if auctioning is their resolve.

It did react to the sales, as we have seen the price goes below $60k in the last 24 hours. But now we have forgotten about this so called negative news, as the price is already at $60,800. So that's how quick the market react to bad news and how quick smart investors taking advantage of it and buying at the right time.

And maybe they are selling because they don't what Trump to have this huge amount of Bitcoin when he wins the US election, Tongue

Although it might be good for America to hold and be a Bitcoin holder or at least they have some reserves, but I guess it's not on their plate and wanted to just disposed of the seized Bitcoin.

CryptSafe

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Definitely, the market would react to such sales be it through auctioning or through exchange but however, the process should be open and transparent because politicians seems to be very funny at all times. I would not be surprised seeing them doing it quick before the [Presidential election so they could get it fast than for a new government to take over it without them getting anything from it.

This would be a good benefit for the exchange they would end up choosing if they think of using an exchange for the sales and also there would likely be other benefits attached to buyers who would buy directly from them if auctioning is their resolve.

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Quote from: Gladitorcomeback on October 10, 2024, 12:51:25 PM

Quote from: fuguebtc on October 10, 2024, 11:05:19 AM

Maybe he is not tech savvy and doesn't know how to use bitcoin well but don't forget he is 78 years old and not young like us. What we should pay more attention to is that the people around him all know about bitcoin and they seem to be bitcoin supporters, which is evident when his manager replaced him to pay in bitcoin.

Even if he knows nothing about bitcoin, as long as his administration has politicians who like bitcoin, it makes us optimistic and believe that under his tenure, we will be better. That would certainly be much better than a leader who not only knows nothing about bitcoin but is hostile to it.

No offense but I don't see any reason for anyone to trust the people around a politician when you can't trust the politician himself. I don't say that Trump is doing all this only for the elections, even though I do have a feeling about it, but all I'm saying is that it is possible, and if he is doing it only for the elections and to gain support from Bitcoin and cryptocurrency supporters, he will surely advise people around him to show that they are crypto-friendly and that they like Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies only to win people over.

That being said, just like Bitcoin's price, we can only speculate about this until he manages to get elected and show us what's real and what's fake. Until then, we can only make assumptions and think about what we feel about the situation and their thoughts within. Politicians tend to be good actors, but just like others, I hope he isn't acting.

No, no politician is trustworthy and we do not need to trust and put our full faith in them. Our supporting and voting for them is just exchanging benefits with them, that's all. If you think Harris's policies will make your life better and vote for her, that means you and she are exchanging benefits. She needs your support to get elected, in return for voting for her, you have the opportunity to receive benefits from her administration's policies, we all have our own goals behind what we do. To me, elections and voting are like an exchange of needs and benefits.

You don't need to guess or have a hunch, what Trump does is just want to get more votes from voters. Many will call it deception and lies, which is true but that is the nature of politics and how politicians get votes and Harris is no different than Trump. That is not new and there is no need to speculate.
Voting in elections is like gambling and betting, we bet on where we think we will win.

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Quote from: fuguebtc on October 10, 2024, 11:05:19 AM

Maybe he is not tech savvy and doesn't know how to use bitcoin well but don't forget he is 78 years old and not young like us. What we should pay more attention to is that the people around him all know about bitcoin and they seem to be bitcoin supporters, which is evident when his manager replaced him to pay in bitcoin.

Even if he knows nothing about bitcoin, as long as his administration has politicians who like bitcoin, it makes us optimistic and believe that under his tenure, we will be better. That would certainly be much better than a leader who not only knows nothing about bitcoin but is hostile to it.

No offense but I don't see any reason for anyone to trust the people around a politician when you can't trust the politician himself. I don't say that Trump is doing all this only for the elections, even though I do have a feeling about it, but all I'm saying is that it is possible, and if he is doing it only for the elections and to gain support from Bitcoin and cryptocurrency supporters, he will surely advise people around him to show that they are crypto-friendly and that they like Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies only to win people over.

That being said, just like Bitcoin's price, we can only speculate about this until he manages to get elected and show us what's real and what's fake. Until then, we can only make assumptions and think about what we feel about the situation and their thoughts within. Politicians tend to be good actors, but just like others, I hope he isn't acting.

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Quote from: stadus on October 10, 2024, 07:23:41 AM

Quote from: yhiaali3 on October 10, 2024, 01:21:51 AM

Yes this is really ridiculous, I was also surprised when I read this phrase: "crypto check" !!! This man does not know anything about Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies.

This is not the first time he has shown his ignorance about Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies, recently when Trump tried to show off to voters and buy a burger using Bitcoin and appeared in front of the cameras like an idiot as his assistants did everything and he did nothing but smile in front of the camera, he does not even know how to scan QR on the mobile as it appears from the video
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kvK2r313_XY

Don’t trust too easily, you know how elections are coming up, and they’re just trying to win over crypto users. Although he might not be super familiar with using Bitcoin for transactions, if he sticks to his word about being crypto-friendly, that could still work out in our favor. We just need to understand that he’s not so tech-savvy, you know.

Maybe he is not tech savvy and doesn't know how to use bitcoin well but don't forget he is 78 years old and not young like us. What we should pay more attention to is that the people around him all know about bitcoin and they seem to be bitcoin supporters, which is evident when his manager replaced him to pay in bitcoin.

Even if he knows nothing about bitcoin, as long as his administration has politicians who like bitcoin, it makes us optimistic and believe that under his tenure, we will be better. That would certainly be much better than a leader who not only knows nothing about bitcoin but is hostile to it.

stadus

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Quote from: yhiaali3 on October 10, 2024, 01:21:51 AM

Quote from: stadus on October 09, 2024, 10:36:09 AM

Crypto check? Does that even exist? Trump’s statements just show he hasn’t fully grasped Bitcoin yet. It’s way safer if they just send payments directly to a specific address, no need for this “crypto check” nonsense.

Yes this is really ridiculous, I was also surprised when I read this phrase: "crypto check" !!! This man does not know anything about Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies.

This is not the first time he has shown his ignorance about Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies, recently when Trump tried to show off to voters and buy a burger using Bitcoin and appeared in front of the cameras like an idiot as his assistants did everything and he did nothing but smile in front of the camera, he does not even know how to scan QR on the mobile as it appears from the video
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kvK2r313_XY

Don’t trust too easily, you know how elections are coming up, and they’re just trying to win over crypto users. Although he might not be super familiar with using Bitcoin for transactions, if he sticks to his word about being crypto-friendly, that could still work out in our favor. We just need to understand that he’s not so tech-savvy, you know.

Lucius

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Quote from: shield132 on October 09, 2024, 03:02:57 PM

Do you remember Hashocean? It was a very popular scam Bitcoin cloud mining website that lasted for a very long time, people even sold houses, bought Bitcoins and invested in Hashocean and then when they collected the most investments, they disappeared. I remember that they collected so many Bitcoins that their sell-off affected Bitcoin's price in 2016.

Sounds familiar to me, although in the past 8 years there have been so many scams related to cryptocurrencies that someone could write a very extensive book about them. However, given that the price of 1 BTC in mid-2016 was around $400 (if my memory serves me well), and that by the end of the year it had more than doubled, I would not say that the scam had any significant impact on the price of BTC.

Quote from: shield132 on October 09, 2024, 03:02:57 PM

If Hashocean affected Bitcoin's price, this 4.4 billion sell-off will have a significant negative effect on price. 900 Bitcoins are mined per day, the US is selling number of coins that will be mined in 77 days with current block reward. The short-term negative effect is definitely here but if they decide sell, it's a very good signal for holders to sell Bitcoin immediately and wait for the dip because there should be a good deep and recovery will definitely be fantastic because the post halving effect will be in action in a few months.

You miscalculated a bit, it's not 900 BTC (approximately) per day, but only 450 BTC considering that the mining reward was reduced by 50% at the last halving from 6.25 per block to 3.125 per block. In addition, I think that about $4 billion worth of BTC will not have any significant effects on the price, because not so long ago we had $3 billion worth of BTC sold by the Germans and no disaster happened.

Quote from: shield132 on October 09, 2024, 03:02:57 PM

Btw I bet that their CEX of choice will be Coinbase.

Very likely, it is no secret that CEX has very good relations with the US authorities.

Topic: SC clears path for US to sell $4.4 billion in seized Silk Road Bitcoin (Read 281 times)