Scammers move 12k BTC - dump is comming? - page 2.

STT

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Nothing wrong with 12k of BTC moving about, I dont see it matters more then their previous holders so long as we keep having a regular balance of sellers and holders and the system keeps circulating then we arent talking about anything too drastic or irregular upset.
Does the world contain dishonest people for sure, BTC is not under a burden for that and it happens in dollar also; if the question is this an overwhelming element of BTC then I have to vote its significance is minor not ongoing or building.

Im bearish on BTC price right now but very short term its rising upto about 10500 I think. We then confirm a previous positive trend as now negative, thats when we got a possible harsh sell more then just the back and forth that is constantly occurring.

Its rising alot now because we broke something a negative trend or line downwards which I marked on this chart :

coolcoinz

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Quote from: beerlover on February 18, 2020, 01:28:53 PM

12 thousand bitcoins wouldn't hurt the bitcoin world at all,

Yes, if you look at the charts 20k Bitcoins on Bitstamp were only able to move the price up by 2,5k USD, so 12k dumped on an even bigger exchange with higher daily bolume would maybe create a 1k USD dump. If it triggered some leveraged positions and bots then a 3k flash crash is a possibility, but once humans see it they will see the opportunity, stop the bots or trade against them. Even a 3k flash crash would barely take us to 7k and would be quickly brought back to 8 maybe 9k.
Those guys would have to be stupid or spooked to dump so much money in one day.

beerlover

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12 thousand bitcoins wouldn't hurt the bitcoin world at all, we have been on a 20%+ profit increasing right now with almost 3 thousand bitcoins sold per day that we know and can prove, there is thousands and maybe even more upon that as well that we do not see as well.

In the end sure a sell off worth $12k bitcoins would hurt the economy but there is no way it is dropping the price to under $5k, maybe it will drop it under $9k and that is all there is to it, look at ALL the buy orders right now from this price to $9k all around the market and you will see that there is tens of thousands of orders that are ready to buy when it goes down, just $12k would only create a wave of sale at the worst scenario but just with it by itself it can't do anything to the market at all.

1Referee

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Quote from: BlackFor3st on February 18, 2020, 12:33:03 AM

It is a huge money but compare to big whales it is not that much so we will be afraid if the big whales will decide to dump their investment as the bitcoin price will surely crash to below 3k$.

It's enough to push the price down far enough to force a bearish close on the daily or weekly time frame if market sold. If this "manipulation" leads to a reversal of the trend, the bull trend we're currently in wouldn't last much longer anyway. If the price gets bought back up and recovers over the course of a couple of days, perhaps a week, then that's exceptionally bullish.

I'm curious though, what's your definition of a 'big whale' in terms of capital in BTC or USD? Some one having 12,000BTC is what I consider a damn big ass whale.

Sure, there are entities with many more coins, but those coins aren't theirs but represent the asset they have under management on behalf of their clients. That's different in my opinion.

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Quote from: TheAndy500 on February 11, 2020, 03:33:44 PM

According to https://twitter.com/chiachih_wu , scammers from PlusToken ponzi scheme move 12k BTC to the addresses that looks like cold wallet:

Here article about that: https://www.cryptoknowmics.com/news/scammers-move-over-12000-btc-from-plustoken-wallet-to-new-address

Here Chiachih_wu is following next transactions: https://twitter.com/chiachih_wu/status/1227150566041649153/photo/1

If they want to dump such a large amount, can we expect a flash crash below $5k?

Personally, I think that they will not be so crazy and if they decide on any sale, they certainly will not want to trigger panic sell, because they would lose a lot on it themselves.

What do you think guys?

If they decide to dump it, I guess it will not affect that much that the bitcoin price will down to 5k$ again. Though it can surely affect the market but the impact that I saw if they really want to dump is between 500-1000$ which can be recovered easily as we are in the peak of the market.

It is a huge money but compare to big whales it is not that much so we will be afraid if the big whales will decide to dump their investment as the bitcoin price will surely crash to below 3k$.

TheAndy500

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Quote from: Reid on February 17, 2020, 11:12:55 PM

It will be difficult for them to just take out that large amount.
KYC will be needed so I don't think so.
They will need to hide themselves so 2 BTC a month may come out. Still a lot figure.
If they are doing it with different exchange then maybe like 20 BTC will be out in a month.

No, they cannot just dump it in an instant. They will be really careful with every transaction they will make.
They might even pay for mixers.

Yes, they pay for mixers, they are very careful and they don't dump it instant. Here you have chart, how looks the way of the Bitcoins before they sell it by brokers:

Here is the original description from the report that you can read here: LINK

Quote

The graph above is a great example of the PlusToken scammers’ obfuscation attempts. The funds start in the wallet in the upper left hand corner, and move to the right. Diagonal movements represent a change in address type, while vertical movements represent the use of a mixer.

In the end, the funds moved to the address of an OTC broker operating on Huobi to be liquidated — that’s how nearly all of the funds so far have been cashed out.

As for limits, there are many exchanges, where the daily limit without verification is 2 BTC. However, with such large amounts of BTC, it would probably take few years.. They will definitely do it faster, but as we can see, they won't do a instant dump, so it shouldn't have a big impact on the Bitcoin price.. Hopefully..

Reid

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It will be difficult for them to just take out that large amount.
KYC will be needed so I don't think so.
They will need to hide themselves so 2 BTC a month may come out. Still a lot figure.
If they are doing it with different exchange then maybe like 20 BTC will be out in a month.

No, they cannot just dump it in an instant. They will be really careful with every transaction they will make.
They might even pay for mixers.

TheAndy500

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Quote from: butcherme on February 17, 2020, 10:33:07 PM

Are we already experiencing the dump from those scammer?
Or is this a correction from the sudden pump?
Would this dump continue or it would bounce back soon?

As I wrote earlier, it has not yet been sold, so what's happening now has nothing to do with this transfer. Scammers transferred 12k BTC from one address to another and then split the whole into about 600 different addresses. From the report you can find in previous post, we can expect that they will now pass Bitcoins through the mixers and then try to sell them via OTC brokers. It is not known when this will happen. Let's hope, that they will choose the moment of price increase, because then the impact on the market will be smaller.

butcherme

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Are we already experiencing the dump from those scammer?
Or is this a correction from the sudden pump?
Would this dump continue or it would bounce back soon?

TheAndy500

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Quote from: exstasie on February 17, 2020, 07:05:33 PM

This is from a Chainalysis report about the PlusToken scammers:

Quote

The graph above is a great example of the PlusToken scammers’ obfuscation attempts. The funds start in the wallet in the upper left hand corner, and move to the right. Diagonal movements represent a change in address type, while vertical movements represent the use of a mixer.

In the end, the funds moved to the address of an OTC broker operating on Huobi to be liquidated — that’s how nearly all of the funds so far have been cashed out.

As the bull market becomes increasingly obvious, the volatility risk will decrease for OTC brokers and OTC demand should also increase. So the effects of these PlusToken liquidations will probably lessen over time.

A great report! It very accurately shows the process in which PlusToken scammers hide stolen funds and how they sell them. Now everything is clear.

However, these charts show that what they do has a fairly large impact on the price. It is good that they do it slowly, but if they make a sale not when the price increases, then there is a quite large price drop. Let's hope someone will catch them, or at least they wait for the next bull run, because if they start selling during the period of bear activity, then the bear market can be extended by another year.

exstasie

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Quote from: Stedsm on February 17, 2020, 06:11:50 PM

Quote from: TheAndy500 on February 17, 2020, 04:20:26 PM

Update:

It looks like there will definitely not be a one-time dump. 12k BTC has been split into approximately 600 different addresses of approximately 40 BTC each. The scenario seems more likely to mix coins in blender services and try to sell on exchanges.

Isn't it possible for them to sell those coins in OTC deals?

That's exactly what they'll do. However, that doesn't mean they won't be dumped on the market. Due to volatility risks, OTC brokers would be expected to dump on exchanges when they can't immediately line up buyers.

This is from a Chainalysis report about the PlusToken scammers:

Quote

The graph above is a great example of the PlusToken scammers’ obfuscation attempts. The funds start in the wallet in the upper left hand corner, and move to the right. Diagonal movements represent a change in address type, while vertical movements represent the use of a mixer.

In the end, the funds moved to the address of an OTC broker operating on Huobi to be liquidated — that’s how nearly all of the funds so far have been cashed out.

As the bull market becomes increasingly obvious, the volatility risk will decrease for OTC brokers and OTC demand should also increase. So the effects of these PlusToken liquidations will probably lessen over time.

Oasisman

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Quote from: TheAndy500 on February 17, 2020, 04:20:26 PM

Update:

It looks like there will definitely not be a one-time dump. 12k BTC has been split into approximately 600 different addresses of approximately 40 BTC each. The scenario seems more likely to mix coins in blender services and try to sell on exchanges. This behavior, fortunately, should not have a big impact on the price decrease, but unfortunately there will be a big problem with tracking them. Let's hope that someone watches over it and manages to find a place through which they will want to sell BTC.

Such an intelligent way of hacking, making it way complicated to trace the hacker. Rest assured that these addresses will be monitored and watched every movements done. I guess these hackers also has a detailed plan on how to dispose that large amount of Bitcoin, and disseminating it into 600 different addresses is the first move.

Stedsm

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Quote from: TheAndy500 on February 17, 2020, 04:20:26 PM

Update:

It looks like there will definitely not be a one-time dump. 12k BTC has been split into approximately 600 different addresses of approximately 40 BTC each. The scenario seems more likely to mix coins in blender services and try to sell on exchanges. This behavior, fortunately, should not have a big impact on the price decrease, but unfortunately there will be a big problem with tracking them. Let's hope that someone watches over it and manages to find a place through which they will want to sell BTC.

Isn't it possible for them to sell those coins in OTC deals? I mean not all the buyers are clever enough to know that the coins are tainted and will just accept and those who know and are intentionally buying it will do that solely for their own benefit as they could likely get it at a handsome discount over market price.

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Quote from: milewilda on February 17, 2020, 05:48:44 PM

Quote from: TheAndy500 on February 17, 2020, 04:20:26 PM

Update:

It looks like there will definitely not be a one-time dump. 12k BTC has been split into approximately 600 different addresses of approximately 40 BTC each. The scenario seems more likely to mix coins in blender services and try to sell on exchanges. This behavior, fortunately, should not have a big impact on the price decrease, but unfortunately there will be a big problem with tracking them. Let's hope that someone watches over it and manages to find a place through which they will want to sell BTC.

I havent checked out the main address and thanks for sharing it up and breaking down into 600 different address is really a hard thing to be traced on if you are really seriously aiming to trace each one of them.
I isnt surprising for a hacker to do such thing because all eyes is already fixed or surveillance on that one so its not a new move on breaking it down into lots of addresses before tending on selling it out.
The price havent able to break 11k price barrier and this price drop doesnt precisely mean that this is the main reason.When theres a price increase there would really be a correction.

Of course, breaking into so many separate addresses does not directly threaten the price. I also don't think that these moves have caused recent price drops (but if they will decide to make one timpe dump of 12k BTC, it for sure will have big impact). However, such behavior on the accounts of scammers certainly do not make good mood on the market. I would love to see that someone is able to track down and capture these scammers, because it would surely calm down investors and give them faith that in the event of theft they are able to recover lost funds. Unfortunately, but there are still big problems with it and investors feel insecure.

milewilda

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Quote from: TheAndy500 on February 17, 2020, 04:20:26 PM

Update:

It looks like there will definitely not be a one-time dump. 12k BTC has been split into approximately 600 different addresses of approximately 40 BTC each. The scenario seems more likely to mix coins in blender services and try to sell on exchanges. This behavior, fortunately, should not have a big impact on the price decrease, but unfortunately there will be a big problem with tracking them. Let's hope that someone watches over it and manages to find a place through which they will want to sell BTC.

I havent checked out the main address and thanks for sharing it up and breaking down into 600 different address is really a hard thing to be traced on if you are really seriously aiming to trace each one of them.
I isnt surprising for a hacker to do such thing because all eyes is already fixed or surveillance on that one so its not a new move on breaking it down into lots of addresses before tending on selling it out.
The price havent able to break 11k price barrier and this price drop doesnt precisely mean that this is the main reason.When theres a price increase there would really be a correction.

TheAndy500

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Update:

It looks like there will definitely not be a one-time dump. 12k BTC has been split into approximately 600 different addresses of approximately 40 BTC each. The scenario seems more likely to mix coins in blender services and try to sell on exchanges. This behavior, fortunately, should not have a big impact on the price decrease, but unfortunately there will be a big problem with tracking them. Let's hope that someone watches over it and manages to find a place through which they will want to sell BTC.

Wexnident

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I have doubts they would do so. One, it would be disadvantageous on the long term since they could potentially get a huge sum from trading it by slowly releasing it to the market. Two, the coins are probably already marked, and exchanges would probably be in the lookout for these coins/wallets marked. Plus, since its a well known scheme in the scene, the victims (or at least a leading party of it) should be monitoring these coins that are exchanged from wallet to wallet. Iirc, there are already instances of coins being retrieved from various schemes and scams, but not all of them were successfully retrieved sadly. They'd probably have to wait it out against the authorities looking for them, since the scheme they did doesn't just involve a small amount of money. It also involves quite a lot of investors and users alike so a lot of eyes are probably on any movements they make.

criza

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Possibly, if they would certainly sell each Bitcoin to current exchanges, that would really affect the price of Bitcoin as its supply would increase. Thus, making the demand for Bitcoin a little less than what is should have, causing a possible down slope in the value of Bitcoin in the market.

michellee

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I am not sure if they can dump bitcoin price to $5k, but they can do that on one exchange because if they want to dump bitcoin price at many exchanges, they will need a huge bitcoin amount so they can do flash crash of bitcoin price. I think if that happens, many people will use that moment to buy more bitcoin at a very low price because it will be hard to see that price in the future. They will use all of their money to place the order buy at the lower price they want while they are waiting for that moment.

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Quote from: TheAndy500 on February 11, 2020, 03:33:44 PM

According to https://twitter.com/chiachih_wu , scammers from PlusToken ponzi scheme move 12k BTC to the addresses that looks like cold wallet:

Here article about that: https://www.cryptoknowmics.com/news/scammers-move-over-12000-btc-from-plustoken-wallet-to-new-address

Here Chiachih_wu is following next transactions: https://twitter.com/chiachih_wu/status/1227150566041649153/photo/1

If they want to dump such a large amount, can we expect a flash crash below $5k?

Personally, I think that they will not be so crazy and if they decide on any sale, they certainly will not want to trigger panic sell, because they would lose a lot on it themselves.

What do you think guys?

I believe they don't just sell it immediately in bulk, may a piece of BTC every day could take.
Yes, an effect could be seen but not actually we are suffering a downtrend again. I don't think that this would be enough to drag down the market price continuously and there is no reason why we should be afraid for the coming days and start to be in FOMO.

For that amount, that certain exchanger also will be wondering and may enable their account once proven it was coming from illegality and may possibly lose that amount from their hands unless they are allowing to do so and transfer that $12k BTC to another wallet. And it can't be traceable anymore once scammers use coin mixers (if they are smart enough).

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