Topic: Search volumes says you are overpaying for your coins (Read 2748 times)
Great chart, may I ask how we can get this chart
I think we could see $5 or $7 in 2013.
Such confidence. 
How many times do established users google "bitcoin"?
Maybe if you looked at the integral of search volume you could find some rough correlation, but raw search volume vs. price is pretty useless.
I think the search volume for "bitcoin" might represent the first derivative of the price.
All I know is that I buy a lot more bitcoins now than back when I had to search for things about bitcoin. Now I just use it. If you want to see a spike in search volume, you need new users. But, I believe many existing users are like me and regularly buy on exchanges with a small portion of their paychecks. I don't think we will have a problem absorbing the new coins at this price. It's the big holders that are the wildcard, but the big dumps haven't moved the price down much lately.
I agree, there's just so many legitimate uses for bitcoin, we do not need to search for it, we know what it is. We now search for places to use it, for example interest in bitpay, bitcoin gambling etc... is skyrocketing in google trends.
All I know is that I buy a lot more bitcoins now than back when I had to search for things about bitcoin. Now I just use it. If you want to see a spike in search volume, you need new users. But, I believe many existing users are like me and regularly buy on exchanges with a small portion of their paychecks. I don't think we will have a problem absorbing the new coins at this price. It's the big holders that are the wildcard, but the big dumps haven't moved the price down much lately.
OP is taking the wrong method to evaluate the value of bitcoin. For example, in the last summer, I searched bitcoin tens of times a day, and today I search 1 time a week. But I believed in bitcoin more than last summer.
Search volumes also says:
What's also worth considering: we don't really need that much new people buying into Bitcoin to justify the current price levels.
All it needs to hold the current price level is about 20,000 Bitcoin enthusiasts that buy 5 BTC per month as an investment. Given the current estimated size of the Bitcoin community these numbers don't sound unrealistic and 5 BTC per month is probably about what's needed just to maintain the relative Bitcoin position (percentage of personal wealth) for many Bitcoiners that have a job.
All it needs to hold the current price level is about 20,000 Bitcoin enthusiasts that buy 5 BTC per month as an investment. Given the current estimated size of the Bitcoin community these numbers don't sound unrealistic and 5 BTC per month is probably about what's needed just to maintain the relative Bitcoin position (percentage of personal wealth) for many Bitcoiners that have a job.
+1. Also: Block reward = 25
Search volumes also says:
What's also worth considering: we don't really need that much new people buying into Bitcoin to justify the current price levels.
All it needs to hold the current price level is about 20,000 Bitcoin enthusiasts that buy 5 BTC per month as an investment. Given the current estimated size of the Bitcoin community these numbers don't sound unrealistic and 5 BTC per month is probably about what's needed just to maintain the relative Bitcoin position (percentage of personal wealth) for many Bitcoiners that have a job.
All it needs to hold the current price level is about 20,000 Bitcoin enthusiasts that buy 5 BTC per month as an investment. Given the current estimated size of the Bitcoin community these numbers don't sound unrealistic and 5 BTC per month is probably about what's needed just to maintain the relative Bitcoin position (percentage of personal wealth) for many Bitcoiners that have a job.
Maybe not many new people doing google searches for 'Bitcoin', but many are looking to 'Buy Bitcoin' 
http://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=buy%20bitcoins&date=1%2F2011%2025m&cmpt=q
http://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=buy%20bitcoins&date=1%2F2011%2025m&cmpt=q
+1
Now THAT is the kind of example you can draw some conclusions around.
People that know about bitcoins aren't arbitrarily searching for the term "bitcoin". However, people that are looking to buy bitcoins would indeed search "buy bitcoins" and be taken to their respective exchanges. More buyers generally = higher prices, assuming that supply has stayed relatively equal, or at least has increased proportionately to the increase in demand without exceeding.
On the other hand, seeing a steady search for the term "bitcoin" could also allude to the fact that more and more people are learning about bitcoin, as mentioned previously, people that already know aren't going to arbitrarily search for the term. Therefore, to keep monthly search volume going on par requires roughly the same number of NEW people to be searching for the term, thus increasing the number of people that know about it and likely increasing the market (demand) for the product. Not only that, but with barrier to entry getting ever stronger, that same supply of people are not remotely as likely to become equal suppliers, thus keeping the supply capped while demand increases drastically.
Every time I want to buy some more bitcoin, I start by just googling the word "bitcoin". Then I scroll through the results, and play a game not unlike 6 degrees of Kevin Bacon until I get to the Mt Gox login screen. I'm pretty sure this is how most of us do it, so this graph is valuable information.
Maybe not many new people doing google searches for 'Bitcoin', but many are looking to 'Buy Bitcoin'
http://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=buy%20bitcoins&date=1%2F2011%2025m&cmpt=q
http://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=buy%20bitcoins&date=1%2F2011%2025m&cmpt=q
damn!! wow.
I think we could see $5 or $7 in 2013.
Such confidence. How many times do established users google "bitcoin"?
Maybe if you looked at the integral of search volume you could find some rough correlation, but raw search volume vs. price is pretty useless.
We "could see" first contact with aliens from 1000 light years away in 2013. I don't expect it, but we could.
This is incredibly weak and cowardly use of language.
Sorry for the confusion, but my response was targeted at OP. I was just too lazy to pull the quote out like you did so I just quoted you. I agree with your points.
The OP can't be more wrong. Prices are high *although* there is not big mainstream media attention to bitcoin. This means, chances are less likely this is a short hype/bubble.
So these prices are real. I think the low prices of the last months/year were still due to an overcorrection from the big crash.
So these prices are real. I think the low prices of the last months/year were still due to an overcorrection from the big crash.
I think we could see $5 or $7 in 2013.
Such confidence. How many times do established users google "bitcoin"?
Maybe if you looked at the integral of search volume you could find some rough correlation, but raw search volume vs. price is pretty useless.
We "could see" first contact with aliens from 1000 light years away in 2013. I don't expect it, but we could.
This is incredibly weak and cowardly use of language.
Maybe not many new people doing google searches for 'Bitcoin', but many are looking to 'Buy Bitcoin'
http://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=buy%20bitcoins&date=1%2F2011%2025m&cmpt=q
http://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=buy%20bitcoins&date=1%2F2011%2025m&cmpt=q
I think we could see $5 or $7 in 2013.
Such confidence. How many times do established users google "bitcoin"?
Maybe if you looked at the integral of search volume you could find some rough correlation, but raw search volume vs. price is pretty useless.
This.
This graph is cumulative. It only helps over short periods to see spikes in newfound eyeballs. Theres no long term price correlation.
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