Im wondering if chainanalysis company thing found out about all the remaining Mt Goxed coins by now? as far as I can remember there were $millions worth of bitcoin in unknown addresses... or perhaps all the addresses are already know? but many of them sitting on wallets that they haven't been able to intercept.
I'm pretty certain they know way more than we do, but I think the main problem here is that the coins are very likely distributed amongst hundreds of thousands of other addresses, likely belonging to innocent people, so from there it's not really worth the time to dig into it any further.
Back then it was less of a problem to mix coins and have them be sent to exchanges left and right, and we shouldn't forget the BTC-E connection. It may very well be that a lot of BTC-E users have withdrawn these gox coins.
That fat fuck has had plenty of time to work out his theft, and if you combine that with the relative freedom he had back then due to the lack of KYC/AML requirements, a small chunk of these coins are probably sitting in one of your or mine wallets right now.
But anyone has some links with data? example:
% of coins under control of feds
% of coins not under control of feds, but intercepted via chainanalysis and known to belong from the mtgox pot, but not know who's the owner of the private keys currently
% of remaining coins which is to be estimated from the previous %'s above
then we could have an idea of how effective chainanalysis has been
I will try to look at the (known) numbers myself later I just don't have time for this right now.
Im wondering if chainanalysis company thing found out about all the remaining Mt Goxed coins by now? as far as I can remember there were $millions worth of bitcoin in unknown addresses... or perhaps all the addresses are already know? but many of them sitting on wallets that they haven't been able to intercept.
Anyway this is why I was talking about the danger of sending mixed coins in an exchange. I did mix some coins as a test, now the doubt is, are one of these coins flagged by some hidden government list? this is the problem. Laws aren't clear on what would happen, but most likely you would end up in trouble, so im not willing to risk that just because I used some coins as a test on a mixer.
As time passes the idea of tainted coins is going to get more outlandish, not less. All of the big swinging dicks will have coins that could be considered tainted if you bothered to look hard enough. Every single one of us has tainted coins unless we mined them and didn't move them.
The one taint that will stick will be coins sent or received directly via a centralised service that breaks its terms and conditions. That happens right now with Coinbase and gambling for instance and you're free to go off and use them with other services that don't have the same terms. You'd get the same 'taint' if you made the same moves in USD.
I've spent plenty of BTC with Bitpay and others and sent BTC to exchanges that came direct from Chipmixer and Bitmixer campaign earnings.
You seem to be getting more uptight with every passing day. You need a crypto holiday.
Probably some of the darknet market arrests. I imagine government agencies and blockchain data companies will continue honing their surveillance abilities over time.
The most high profile ones I can think of came from a moron sending directly from his dark wallet to an exchange account with his ID fully attached. The other was the sheep marketplace guy who was running millions of Euros through his girlfriend's account and thinking he was clever.
Neither demanded a warehouse full of Crays to solve.
We probably own coins which have belong to criminal activity in the past. This is not a problem in principle. When it becomes a problem is when a government knows for a fact or at least the address is on one of their "lists", then you deposit this on an exchange linked to your real identity, then it's when the problem starts since you could risk a potential audit, and who knows how much it would escalate, they may demand further proof, disclosure of your wallet, whatever else they may come up with.
An example of how an attacker/troll could incriminate someone is sending money to one of the 2 banned addresses by the US government (which have a fine of up to $250,000 per transaction) and within the same transaction send money to one of your addresses. De facto you've now have received money by a criminal. You now send this money into an exchange linked to your name and the rest is history.
I may need a cryptoholiday, but again, never underestimate the clusterfuck of laws that are being made right now about this, and/or interpretation of current laws in order to make situations like these fit in within these existing laws.