What is the chance on a Windows 10 system, Microsoft get access to my Bitcoin priv. keys if I don't adopt any special security arrangements ?
The chance that they
can? Probably pretty good, considering that they typically get a heads-up (as is responsible) on newly discovered security vulnerabilities that could access everything on your computer. Security researchers typically give confidential notification of their discoveries to the software vendor, remaining quiet about it for a period of time so that the vendor (Microsoft) can patch it, hopefully before the flaw is exploited in the wild.
The chance that they
will? In my view, extremely unlikely, even if you are a major BTC whale. Any such breach would almost certainly not be a company effort, but the action of a person or persons within their security teams having "gone rogue". A business like Microsoft will have in place elaborate measures to prevent access to the full breadth of information necessary (some through vuln knowledge, some through their telemetry, etc.) in order to effectively mount an operation to steal private keys.
However, and this is key: There's a chance I'm wrong about any/all of this. It is possible that there's a super secret team within Microsoft devoted to theft of keys, with full access to remote right into every Windows PC on the planet. Or even worse, perhaps an algo built into their disk cleanup maintenance that runs when idle and scans your computer for wallets/keys, uploading its finds. It is pretty clear that Windows 10 spys quite a bit, even if you take considerable steps to disable/defeat the telemetry. The amount of tracking they've built into Windows should be something that
everyone is concerned about, in particular if you create or store
anything of value (confidential business documents, closed-source software, art/music/creative content that you sell for money, etc.) on your PC (and most people do in some form, on some PCs). Consider the hacks of TV and film content that leaked and cost those studios millions of dollars. Consider inside corporate information that could be worth lots of money to those seeking to frontrun a trade, or classified information that could be stolen from one government and sold to an adversarial government.
Given that, consider implementing the measures necessary for you to both feel safe as well those that actually make your data safer (the two are not always the same).The way I see it, any key protection measures boil down to a tradeoff between convenience and safety, which is pretty much the same as physical money. You could lock all of your money inside of 10 nested vaults, but then it wouldn't be very spendable. You could carry all of your money in your wallet, but then it wouldn't be so safe if something happened to you. In many places, you could keep wads of physical cash inside of a drawer in your
unlocked house and it'd not be stolen, most of the time. No one would try to enter your house, most of the time. One day, however, someone may come to your door that has no problem with entering an unlocked house and taking a look around for some easy loot. So, we generally lock our doors because it's easy and it increases the protection of what's on the other side of the lock (even nominally given the flimsy quality of many door locks).
I recommend keeping spending money in an easier to access place (but still with some protection, of course), and any savings or large amounts in more elaborate storage. Crypto Twitter seems to be enamored with
https://keys.casa/, including several people I'd weight very highly in having a high amount of security expertise. They sell hardware wallets, have a multisig wallet protection service, and are also selling a pretty cool Raspberry Pi-based mini BTC/Lightning node. You might want to check them out.
Personally, I don't hold much cryptocurrency, but here's what I do. I use
Qubes OS (a "reasonably secure" flavor of Linux) on an air-gapped (offline) laptop that stores all of my private keys and is protected under physical lock and key. On the laptop, the keys are stored inside of encrypted files protected by long, manually entered diceware passphrases with pretty high entropy. I'm sure my system has many flaws, but it works for me. If I held substantial sums, I'd certainly spend some time looking into how to improve on it.
Best regards,
Ben