If we stay within USD 3800-4200,- I think we'll remain fairly stable with Segwit leading to a small upwards bump followed by a market cooldown.
Looking at recent events however, it seems like we got the good old Bitcoin back. So the current rally will probably culminate in a strong push towards USD 5000,- most likely followed by a correction towards the lower 3000s over the following days. After that I expect a re-continuation of the upwards trend, until we hit the event horizon that will be Segwit vs Segwitx2.
Topic: Segwit two week Grace Period, what volatile prices we expect to see during this? (Read 918 times)
August 13, 2017, 06:49:26 PM
August 13, 2017, 05:47:44 PM
I don't think there will be any significant price movements during the incoming week, just like in the pre-fork days. Price should be stable around $3200-$3500. That's my guess.
Turned out your guess was wild off the mark as presently Bitcoin is going for $4159.55 and it seems to have more steam to go even further until November, when the second leg of Segwit2x - increase in blocksize, which ultimately would culminate in a hard fork, may want to be implemented. About that time I foresee Bitcoin shielding most of the gains it has cornered so far, but is sure to make a come back in no time. 
August 10, 2017, 11:02:13 AM
so far bitcoin is on a good trend upwards and i don't see this changing any time soon. and there is no reason for it to change. with SegWit 100% support from miners there is no reason for any drops.
looking at the charts the rise looks good so far with little resistance to go up.
it is also the effect of investors coming back slowly as they become sure of the future of bitcoin since all the split nonsense is over now.
looking at the charts the rise looks good so far with little resistance to go up.
it is also the effect of investors coming back slowly as they become sure of the future of bitcoin since all the split nonsense is over now.
August 10, 2017, 10:32:00 AM
I'm going to take my chances and say that nothing out of the ordinary is going to happen. You said your self, the price is not stable but that doesn't mean It's because of SegWit. I can tell you that 90% of bitcoiners outside /r/Bitcoin and this forum know absolutely nothing about SegWit or how its going to help bitcoin in the future.
Those are baseless arguments I must say! As at the 16th of July, Bitcoin was having a free fall as a result of the proposed split of the network by the proponents of UASF, which was billed for August 1st. Sanity and confidence was only restored after BIP91 started signaling Segwit and now Bitcoin have gone ahead to make a new ATH. However that was a palliative measure and we know they are not long lasting solutions. Beyond segwit, the argument whether the blocksize stays at 1MB or increase to 2MB, is still a deadlock and as such the last could not have been heard of a major split in the network. So we would most likely experience a pull back before Bitcoin continues on its lunar trip.
August 10, 2017, 07:24:36 AM
I'm going to take my chances and say that nothing out of the ordinary is going to happen. You said your self, the price is not stable but that doesn't mean It's because of SegWit.
Yes I was thinking exactly the same, before segwit was locked in I was expected some volatile price but since the lock in there hasn't been any major movement in the price so maybe it's safe to assume it's gonna stay relatively stable atleast until segwit has been activated. August 10, 2017, 06:28:23 AM
I can tell you that 90% of bitcoiners outside /r/Bitcoin and this forum know absolutely nothing about SegWit or how its going to help bitcoin in the future.
I strongly doubt that 90% of money currently trading BTC is unaware of SegWit. I would say that percentage is closer to 0%.Chances are that SegWit will not live up to expectations for a week or two because transaction fees may rise as a huge number of BTC users scramble to move their coins to new SegWit addresses. There could be FUD during this phase and the phase before LN is implemented.
Before the November fork there will be a lot of fear about whether the fork will be high consensus enough. That's another factor that could cause the price to drop.
The actual outcome of these things is quite positive though so it's hard to tell what will happen. Personally, I think it's bearish short-term and bullish long-term (upwards of three years IMO). The Bitcoin price is far too high so we're outside of any predictable territory.
So i need to find a new segwit compatible wallet before segwit activates?
If you want to use SegWit, you have to move your coins to newer SegWit addresses (after SegWit is activated) and start spending from those. My point is that when SegWit is activated, people will start sending their coins to SegWit addresses, using legacy transactions to do so, which might briefly clog up the network.
But you don't have to move your coins, nor do you have to use SegWit. And if the 2MB thing happens, you'll just have coins on both chains like you did with Bitcoin Cash.
August 09, 2017, 06:05:02 PM
I can tell you that 90% of bitcoiners outside /r/Bitcoin and this forum know absolutely nothing about SegWit or how its going to help bitcoin in the future.
I strongly doubt that 90% of money currently trading BTC is unaware of SegWit. I would say that percentage is closer to 0%.Chances are that SegWit will not live up to expectations for a week or two because transaction fees may rise as a huge number of BTC users scramble to move their coins to new SegWit addresses. There could be FUD during this phase and the phase before LN is implemented.
Before the November fork there will be a lot of fear about whether the fork will be high consensus enough. That's another factor that could cause the price to drop.
The actual outcome of these things is quite positive though so it's hard to tell what will happen. Personally, I think it's bearish short-term and bullish long-term (upwards of three years IMO). The Bitcoin price is far too high so we're outside of any predictable territory.
So i need to find a new segwit compatible wallet before segwit activates?
August 09, 2017, 02:13:25 PM
Bitcoin prices are volatile as we all know, it is not stable/constantly mooning.
During this 2 week grace period what highs and lows do we guesstimate the prices will be and the associated dates/times.
During this 2 week grace period what highs and lows do we guesstimate the prices will be and the associated dates/times.
I'm seeing some minor corrections along the way. And maybe peaking at around $4000 before the actual implementation and lows of $3500. I don't see much movement to go to $5000, unless some individual or group started buying bitcoin in massive quantities. I don't want fast growth but rather a slow phase for now. But coming November again, we will see another waves of FUD here predicting that bitcoin will die... again. LOL. It will be bearish along this 2 weeks grace period but once everyone has settled in again. I'm seeing $4000 tops.
August 09, 2017, 01:28:43 PM
I can tell you that 90% of bitcoiners outside /r/Bitcoin and this forum know absolutely nothing about SegWit or how its going to help bitcoin in the future.
I strongly doubt that 90% of money currently trading BTC is unaware of SegWit. I would say that percentage is closer to 0%.Chances are that SegWit will not live up to expectations for a week or two because transaction fees may rise as a huge number of BTC users scramble to move their coins to new SegWit addresses. There could be FUD during this phase and the phase before LN is implemented.
Before the November fork there will be a lot of fear about whether the fork will be high consensus enough. That's another factor that could cause the price to drop.
The actual outcome of these things is quite positive though so it's hard to tell what will happen. Personally, I think it's bearish short-term and bullish long-term (upwards of three years IMO). The Bitcoin price is far too high so we're outside of any predictable territory.
August 09, 2017, 12:46:58 PM
I gotta laugh at the wishful thinking here, it will see sub $3k again soon.
No one understands that profit taking is a MUST otherwise no reason for increases and decreases.
How will seg affect its price, who knows, common sense need not apply but def going to see $2K+ BTC again and soon.
No one understands that profit taking is a MUST otherwise no reason for increases and decreases.
How will seg affect its price, who knows, common sense need not apply but def going to see $2K+ BTC again and soon.
August 09, 2017, 12:20:57 PM
I still seeing a lot of noise about this one so I am guessing there will still be a price increase. But I do not think it will be a large swing. Maybe just a few hundreds more but the price will not exceed 4K.
August 09, 2017, 12:11:46 PM
I dont expect much volatility anymore before November. We might see a gradual BTC growth towards $4k+ but I really do not expect huge jumps as a result of SegWit. The market has already acknowledged this.
This ^^
The market has already priced all of this in, we've had tremendous upwards price trajectory. We should be grateful for now & not expect fireworks too soon.
August 09, 2017, 11:52:56 AM
Bitcoin prices are volatile as we all know, it is not stable/constantly mooning. During this 2 week grace period what highs and lows do we guesstimate the prices will be and the associated dates/times.
Expect the price to coast around three thousand five hundred dollars for a while. Then wild swings between four thousand and five thousand usd in September.
Maybe reaching $5,000 in September can be a big wishlist...but then who would not want to see that coming, right? Volatility is always the hallmark of Bitcoin as it can go up and up and then suddenly there would be value corrections and then the same cycle would be happening again.
It is quite possible that Bitcoin may try to break the $3,500 barrier for good and then slowly but surely rising towards the $3,700 level where it might be staying there for many weeks as it is gathering inertia to jump into the $4,000 hurdle once and for all.
But then again, I am not a prophetic guy so this is just my humble opinion...whatever will happen is not my fault and don't follow my suggestions here especially if you are into trading.
Whats happening in september to make it go $5000? I thought segwit is being activated this month august soon for $4-5000 you think?
August 09, 2017, 11:52:24 AM
I dont expect much volatility anymore before November. We might see a gradual BTC growth towards $4k+ but I really do not expect huge jumps as a result of SegWit. The market has already acknowledged this.
August 09, 2017, 11:50:12 AM
I'm going to take my chances and say that nothing out of the ordinary is going to happen. You said your self, the price is not stable but that doesn't mean It's because of SegWit. I can tell you that 90% of bitcoiners outside /r/Bitcoin and this forum know absolutely nothing about SegWit or how its going to help bitcoin in the future.
If it is not segwit then what is?
August 09, 2017, 07:21:40 AM
Segwit locked in didn't has any impact on Bitcoin price as it was already anticipated by the community. But the benefits it has to offer will further increase the price because of less fees and thus increasing the use cases of Bitcoin.
August 09, 2017, 07:14:25 AM
logically there is absolutely no reason for any kind of drop anymore. there should be only rises and some small correction because that is only natural. but since bitcoin exchanges are very small and the orderbooks are also small, that means fluctuations will run wild from time to time like the $3100 dip today 
but i don't expect any of these prices to last any long period of time because despite orderbooks being small, there is a balanced amount going in an out of them too. another week of staying between $3200-$3400 won't surprise me.
but i don't expect any of these prices to last any long period of time because despite orderbooks being small, there is a balanced amount going in an out of them too. another week of staying between $3200-$3400 won't surprise me.
August 09, 2017, 07:10:15 AM
Bitcoin prices are volatile as we all know, it is not stable/constantly mooning. During this 2 week grace period what highs and lows do we guesstimate the prices will be and the associated dates/times.
Expect the price to coast around three thousand five hundred dollars for a while. Then wild swings between four thousand and five thousand usd in September.
Maybe reaching $5,000 in September can be a big wishlist...but then who would not want to see that coming, right? Volatility is always the hallmark of Bitcoin as it can go up and up and then suddenly there would be value corrections and then the same cycle would be happening again.
It is quite possible that Bitcoin may try to break the $3,500 barrier for good and then slowly but surely rising towards the $3,700 level where it might be staying there for many weeks as it is gathering inertia to jump into the $4,000 hurdle once and for all.
But then again, I am not a prophetic guy so this is just my humble opinion...whatever will happen is not my fault and don't follow my suggestions here especially if you are into trading.
August 09, 2017, 07:01:16 AM
me neither, I dont think there will be that much of a difference.
Bitcoins volatility is a normal aspect IMO.
I have seen it over the last few months where people predicted
bitcoin to swing a certain way, and it didnt at all.
Bitcoins volatility is a normal aspect IMO.
I have seen it over the last few months where people predicted
bitcoin to swing a certain way, and it didnt at all.
August 09, 2017, 06:59:03 AM
I don't think there will be any significant price movements during the incoming week, just like in the pre-fork days. Price should be stable around $3200-$3500. That's my guess.
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