I predict someone will do this in 2018, which some are calling "the year of bitcoin forks" where we will have "bitcoin whatever" left and right.
That is the long-range chain reorganization I am positing. A fork that starts from say August and steals all the SegWit booty that has accumulated enriching the miners.
I wonder why no one has come up yet with a bitcoin hardfork that goes back to no-segwit and continues with 1MB and keeps same hashing algo etc, so you get the original bitcoin
I am glad that someone else has noticed they did not offer us that option. Was it on purpose?
And I conjecture one possible reason that no one has offered it yet, because TPTB in my conjecture would want to offer it as a rollback to August, after they divide-and-conquer the community with a proliferation of forks. If they offered it without a rollback earlier, they would not be able to get as much support for their coming rollback (if my theory comes to fruition).
TPTB amass more BTC with the rollback and immutability is restored.
Those (more or less economically irrelevant) sheep who lost BTC to the rollback can continue on one of those many forks to own their more or less worth-much-less “BTC”. Any way, that is my theory but not with even 80% conviction of likelihood.
As you say, 2017 to sometime in 2018 appears to be the year of the forks. So the potentially frenzied end to this forkathon mess is probably not going to be in November 2017.
Again I posited a wild conjecture that any such forkathon is being fostered behind the curtain to create the environment that will be ripe to accept the rollback as a savior from a forkathon mess coupled with a hypothesized insecurity mess of SegWit. Everyone could grow weary of the endless forking and beg for immutability.
That is a lot of potentially cockamamie theory and conjecture. Might all end up being hair-brained. Except all I can say to that is study my sources and make your own determination to quality of my sources and analysis thereof.
I hope everyone remembers there are apparently millions of BTC that would love to see the mob of sheep who supported SegWit, lose their BTC as a punishment and education. They believe the immutability (i.e. resistance against rule by the mob) is one of the key attributes that gives Bitcoin its value as reserve currency.
My wild conjecture is TPTB are in the process now of demonstrating what happens when ”rule by the mob” is allowed. In this conjecture, I posit they want to demonstrate how it ends up as a divided-and-conquered and insecure mess. I believe they put a decade (or more) of research into creating Bitcoin and they know that it should not be fundamentally altered because they know there is no such thing as a democracy. There is only a power vacuum that results in chaos until TPTB step into the power vacuum and create order.
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When someone talks about an unproven rock star, they usually have drunk some Koolaid. Btw, I listened to this Elizabeth Stark in a few YouTube videos and she has errors in her remarks (e.g. that LN can be decentralized, etc). (Frankly I got so bored by her verbiage, I couldn’t listen for very long)
Okay, so here is my thought.
The Chinaman got together with the WallStreet folks and did the NYA to foster a bubble. But I have posited in this thread (and the companion thread) that the Chinaman has a scheme up his sleeve (and he is backed by very very powerful players behind the curtain who play both sides of the coin).
We’re obviously in a phase transition right now, and the big money is starting to notice. But how long will this phase transition go on before it reaches nosebleed and needs to take dive? $8000 - $10,000 within a month? Then we’ll get some exhale (not dive) into altcoins because of the risk of the 2x fork in November (and my bets are still on LTC and BCH for the reasons I already explained because I expect 2X to fail to be adopted). Then $25,000 by Q1 2018? That would take us to ~$0.5 trillion market cap (perhaps $1 trillion overall including all altcoins), which would presumably set the gears into motion to insure the institutional players want in. And will the catalyst for any subsequent dive be dire (e.g. the SegWit attack I posited) and create a winter? Will the big money get the “custodian insurance” they need in time to come in and support this phase transition before any such crypto winter?
And whether SegWit, Lightning Networks, and ICOs (i.e. the current paradigms that the current phase transition are hinged on) are the paradigms that will take us to this future?
It seems the vehicles are being created to allow more speculative players into the market, but afaics the institutional players will not be able to buy into this bubble within the next few months:
[…]
When someone talks about an unproven rock star, they usually have drunk some Koolaid. Btw, I listened to this Elizabeth Stark in a few YouTube videos and she has errors in her remarks (e.g. that LN can be decentralized, etc). (Frankly I got so bored by her verbiage, I couldn’t listen for very long)
Okay, so here is my thought.
The Chinaman got together with the WallStreet folks and did the NYA to foster a bubble. But I have posited in this thread (and the companion thread) that the Chinaman has a scheme up his sleeve (and he is backed by very very powerful players behind the curtain who play both sides of the coin).
We’re obviously in a phase transition right now, and the big money is starting to notice. But how long will this phase transition go on before it reaches nosebleed and needs to take dive? $8000 - $10,000 within a month? Then we’ll get some exhale (not dive) into altcoins because of the risk of the 2x fork in November (and my bets are still on LTC and BCH for the reasons I already explained because I expect 2X to fail to be adopted). Then $25,000 by Q1 2018? That would take us to ~$0.5 trillion market cap (perhaps $1 trillion overall including all altcoins), which would presumably set the gears into motion to insure the institutional players want in. And will the catalyst for any subsequent dive be dire (e.g. the SegWit attack I posited) and create a winter? Will the big money get the “custodian insurance” they need in time to come in and support this phase transition before any such crypto winter?
And whether SegWit, Lightning Networks, and ICOs (i.e. the current paradigms that the current phase transition are hinged on) are the paradigms that will take us to this future?
It seems the vehicles are being created to allow more speculative players into the market, but afaics the institutional players will not be able to buy into this bubble within the next few months:
[…]
this isnt helping at all.
