My observation is that most people use Bitcoin as the default currency to trade on exchanges. Exchanges largely determine the price of bitcoin, because that's where they are traded for other goods. But now, most exchanges are disconnecting bitcoin from the world to protect themselves if their uses lose money for any glitch, bug or unforeseen reason, and they can't risk a huge backlash. Coinbase will stop withdrawals and deposits of Bitcoins, Bittrex has already done so, Poloniex has stated they may stop accepting deposits or allowing Withdrawals at any moment without notice (bad). Also, transactions are having problems at some exchanges, for example right now on Gdax (Coinbase) it's listed as a problem along with Wires. I have a Bitcoin transaction from Coinbase to Poloniex that has been in limbo for a full day now. When these problems start to become to surface, combined with recent announcement from for example Poloniex that the may give you just one coin if it splits, and whatever they chose to give you, or from Gdax that will take for themselves your BitcoinCash if you leave your money with them, has this effect:
1) Caos as people unawares of exchanges rejecting deposits will have their funds in limbo.
2) Those trading but that don't want the exchanges to steal their money, will now have to SELL bitcoin into another coin, transfer to an exchange or a service that still allows bitcoins transactions, to make it safe in a hardware wallet or desktop app.
3) Those with any problem or large delay in transactions will be heard loudly, and increasingly
4) Those trading that were not considering or giving much value to Bitcoin Cash, will see BTC starting to plummet as people are forced to sell into another coin to safeguard their funds
5) Trading on alt coins will lose volume, since most pairs are against BTC, and then start tanking rapidly as people want liquidity, which turns into bitcoins, and then as bitcoin tanks, rapidly into BTC/USD, BTC/CNY, etc.
6) As it gets worst, short sellers will become quite bold. They have been beaten by a lot of people not wanting to miss out, which made for price in increase despite a lot of sell pressure. Now they will triple effort.
I don't know how likely it is. But it's undeniable that you need to sell BTC not something else to get funds out of Bittrex and many other exchanges. And that a reason many people hold bitcoins is because they are the Currency in the trading pairs. This gave BTC a huge push up. But it will unwind for the same reason.
So let's see what happens. At least you get a contrarian voice to: Bitcoin will reach $500,000 in 3 years, or $4000 next month. It may reach that level, but short term, it can't be more risky that it currently is.
Cheers,
That's a very interesting analysis thanks for sharing.
I had missed that bitcoin actually has some currency value because of the sale and purchase of other cryptos, probably it's only use as a currency for now (similar to ETH).
Do you see this as only a temporary factor that will disappear once exchanges re-enable the transfer of bitcoins, or do you think there might be a longer lasting impact on confidence?
