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Topic: Seriously! three times...the individual vs. combined probability. - page 3. (Read 431 times)

legendary
Activity: 1960
Merit: 3107
LE ☮︎ Halving es la purga
If it happens 2 times, and it is less strange that it happens consecutively (1/1369), but 3 times or more, at least I had not seen it. And I asked myself, how difficult is it for this to happen?

The roulette in this case consists of 37 numbers so the probability that a number will come up is 1/37 point. It's that easy. And in each turn it is an independent event from the other, so the probability remains the same.

But if we combine these individual events in the probability that they repeat 1,2,3, etc. "x" times in a row we use the combined, which in this case is 1 / 37x1 / 37x1 / 37 = 1/50653

And here the point that can mislead our minds, the simple probability that it comes out for the fourth time is 1/37 because to reach that fourth time obviously the combined probability has already been exceeded.

I was able to document that moment and it can be verified at:
https://bcgame-project.github.io/bcgame-roulette/?hash=4fc8bf1f62b929c249c756bdc7a36d5dca3e519effadfdb23fff76d84a7bdd42

Capture:

Source: bc.game/roulette

Hash:
https://i.imgur.com/LzWCzGC.jpg
https://i.imgur.com/DGH33AI.jpg
https://i.imgur.com/s4CDuKU.jpg

This may be a well-documented and well-known topic, but I experienced it today and wanted to share it, although I understand beforehand that the cool thing would have been to bet on green in those three rounds.  Smiley

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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roulette
Google Search:What are the odds of hitting the same number 3 times in roulette?
Quote
As you can see from the above calculation hitting the same single number three consecutive times amounts to 1 chance in 50,653. This corresponds to a 0.0019% chance of winning with the same number three times in a row. Note that repeating roulette outcomes by themselves are not that rare phenomena
Source:https://www.casinoreports.ca/roulette/odds-probabilities/

Considerations: Yes, roulette is one of those games where the house has a lot of advantage, among other side shortcuts that the topic can discuss, so it is about this point in particular.
POT.Ty

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