Topic: Settle down (Read 3064 times)

A new, "better" currency isn't going to displace Bitcoin overnight. It too will have to bootstrap an economy before it's viable. That's the hard part, and Bitcoin is already progressing towards it. And in the event a competitor comes along, you can always trade your Bitcoins for it.

The whole software is open source(easy to copy and tweak), there´s a lot of heat on the current implementation, on the other hand it has a fairly large and dedicated userbase.
But Firefox/IE did not invent the browser, Google did not invent the concept of a search engine, both used existing ideas and improved on them. But that´s not what you are saying in the quote I critizised. Hence I stated that I believe it to be misleading.

You're right, I guess I wasn't clear. When I said "if the concept is sound", I did not mean to imply either that it is, or that such a thing could necessarily be known ahead of time. There are always unknowns, and Bitcoin certainly has its share of known risks. You know if the concept is sound by whether it works in the long run. For now, my educated guess is that Bitcoin is sound, and the rest of my advice is based on that.

+1 Million
You are highly qualified to make money long-term.

Sorry again, whilst, as is clear from your reply, you do seem to understand the risks and probably have the experience in trading, your statement:
´and rest assured that if the concept is sound you're going make a killing in the long run (which probably won't even be that long).´
does not provide any consideration of the point I made above.
Whilst the risks I mentionend might be self-evident to you, I do believe it may mislead others on this forum who are less experienced than yourself.

You misunderstood my point, and I agree with you 100%. See the first half of this comment - this is clearly a high risk investment.

I disagree.  There is plenty of volatility, and trading can turn volatility into profit.  Low volume is only a problem if the volume is low relative to your trading capital and frequency of trading.  People have suggested dollar-cost averaging and buying the dips... that's already half a trading strategy.  Use the corresponding techniques on the sell side and you're a trader.   

We should be encouraging traders, as they will provide liquidity and smooth out some of the volatility.  Exactly what the bitcoin economy needs.

Jesus, people. You should stay out of financial markets if you're not going to take the time to familiarize yourself with their mechanics.

This is what markets do. Markets do not go up (or down) in a straight line. This is a correction, and a necessary one. But it could go a lot lower, and you still shouldn't panic. Look at the "all data" chart on bitcoincharts.com in log scale (ALWAYS use log scale). This latest drop is barely a blip on the long-term trend, which is still VERY strongly positive.

I've been buying Bitcoins all the way up past $30 with the expectation that a correction as low as $8 was likely. Who cares? It could hit $2 without breaking its long-term uptrend, or it could go from here to $100. If you believe in the fundamentals, and you're not trying to do short-term trading, keep buying. Hell, even a test of the $1 level might be a healthy thing for the market. Corrections flush out the weak buyers, make some money for the shorts, and set the stage for the rally to go on.

But while we're on the subject, Bitcoin is a terrible market for short-term trading. Low-volume markets are nasty, and you're likely to lose your shirt. Slow down, remember that you're in the market before even the institutional investors, and rest assured that if the concept is sound you're going make a killing in the long run (which probably won't even be that long).

Buy and hold, averaging in through the peaks and valleys. That is how you make your money when you're in this early, not quick trades. Bitcoin is a long-term growth play, and a hell of a promising one at that. Any talk of a bubble is nonsense when 99% of the population either hasn't heard of it or thinks it's a joke.

But while we're on the subject, Bitcoin is a terrible market for short-term trading. Low-volume markets are nasty, and you're likely to lose your shirt.

This almost sounds like a self-bailout from all the people who just bought in at the latest run up.  JK.

I´m sorry, but that statement is just plain wrong and missleading! Yes I do believe that the technology behind Bitcoin is sound. This however does not necessarily mean, that the current implementation will succeed.
Firefox was based on Netscape technology and is quite successful. How did that investment in Netscape work out for you?

Not trying to say that Bitcoin in it´s current form can´t succeed, but the statement you are making is not supported by past experience.

wow. it is worse than I thought. you don't even try to rationalize.

I don't care what it's because of - it's what the market is predicting, according to my reading of the chart. It knows more than I do.

But while we're on the subject, Bitcoin is a terrible market for short-term trading. Low-volume markets are nasty, and you're likely to lose your shirt. Slow down, remember that you're in the market before even the institutional investors, and rest assured that if the concept is sound you're going make a killing in the long run (which probably won't even be that long).

Dollar-cost averaging would probably be a good way to play this market, i.e., invest the same amount of fiat currency on a regular basis.  For example, buy $100 worth of Bitcoins each week at whatever the market value is at the time.  This way, you limit your exposure when the market is overbought and pick up extra Bitcoins when it is oversold.

because of what exactly?
speculating on the influx of speculators?

Yeah, and the base trendline (which is down around $2 or so now) will be at $150 in somewhere around 2 years at the current growth rate (quick estimate, but it's in the ballpark). We ain't seen nothin' yet.

The difference between $15 and $30 is not a such a big deal if it hits $150+.