Several Phases of the Bitcoin Bear Market

TravelMug

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Quote from: hd49728 on September 14, 2022, 10:22:39 AM

People repeat what they did in the past and the market psychological cycle is repeated too.

https://medium.com/@KayodeOla/here-are-the-14-stages-of-the-psychology-of-a-market-cycle-from-beginning-to-end-66a832a0aa06

Cycle can be big like four year cycle but it can be small within each rise and fall wave. If you zoom in then zoom out, you can see past cycles from price to psychology. It is harder to predict what will be next, harder than look back past price and say it worked according to market psychological cycle.

Yes, and for us who have witnessed the bear market in 2018 after enjoying a very great year prior to that, it's really hard to imagine these waves of bear market. But I guess we all have matured during our crypto journey and we are again in a similar cycle.

So personally, I will just have to go with the flow and then accumulate. I will not panic similar to 2018 because I have felt and seen it already. But this time, I've learn that this is the right time to save and buy bitcoin because they are cheap and we just have to wait for the next bull cycle.

justdimin

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Quote from: Davian144 on September 13, 2022, 11:54:29 PM

Quote from: Xampeuu on September 13, 2022, 09:52:01 PM

the crypto market is no different from other markets, it's just that it has high volatility, so speculators will prefer to invest in the crypto market considering it will be easier to get a lot of profit. when the market is bearish as it is today, don't let us regret in the future for not taking advantage of the opportunity to buy. what are we afraid of when investing in bitcoin, eth or bnb, I don't think it contains a big risk

Why not take a big risk? Isn't every big profit always balanced with the risk that everyone must understand?
Because without understanding the risks and only thinking about profits, regret can happen to them when market conditions decline and have to wait to get a return through an increase in the market. Especially if you say the crypto market is no different from other markets, which means you also have to read the opportunities by understanding everything that has happened in the market unexpectedly.

That's what I always say, there is a bigger risk in the crypto world but that also means that there is a bigger reward most of the time as well. Yes it could go from 68k to under 20k and that is the risk you are taking when you are facing bear market, but it could go from under 5k to over 65k as well which we had from 2020 to 2021 as well if you check from lowest to highest prices.

This is why we take the risk, we are not really dealing with anything that is serious right now because it's not volatile and it's around 20k a bit lower or higher but it's around there, but when the volatility hits it's going to be 100k and that's when people will realize why we are taking such a big risk.

hd49728

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People repeat what they did in the past and the market psychological cycle is repeated too.

https://medium.com/@KayodeOla/here-are-the-14-stages-of-the-psychology-of-a-market-cycle-from-beginning-to-end-66a832a0aa06

Cycle can be big like four year cycle but it can be small within each rise and fall wave. If you zoom in then zoom out, you can see past cycles from price to psychology. It is harder to predict what will be next, harder than look back past price and say it worked according to market psychological cycle.

Davian144

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Quote from: Xampeuu on September 13, 2022, 09:52:01 PM

the crypto market is no different from other markets, it's just that it has high volatility, so speculators will prefer to invest in the crypto market considering it will be easier to get a lot of profit. when the market is bearish as it is today, don't let us regret in the future for not taking advantage of the opportunity to buy. what are we afraid of when investing in bitcoin, eth or bnb, I don't think it contains a big risk

Why not take a big risk? Isn't every big profit always balanced with the risk that everyone must understand?
Because without understanding the risks and only thinking about profits, regret can happen to them when market conditions decline and have to wait to get a return through an increase in the market. Especially if you say the crypto market is no different from other markets, which means you also have to read the opportunities by understanding everything that has happened in the market unexpectedly.

Xampeuu

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Quote from: justdimin on September 13, 2022, 03:59:52 PM

Quote from: landheer on September 13, 2022, 12:15:50 AM

interesting topic,, in 2021 bitcoin experienced a very high price, and now the price has gone down. and that in my opinion is the impact of the sluggish world economy that makes people finally sell their bitcoins, or it can be called, many people take advantage of their investments because the market is bull. and finally the price of bitcoin fell because many were selling. and finally there is a bear market. now the existence of a bear market means opening up good opportunities for those of us who are interested in investing in bitcoin. and will hold it until one day there is a maximum profit.

World economy is tied to bitcoin because both of them are tied to us. If the price of bitcoin goes up then that means we have money to buy it, if the price doesn't go up then it means we are selling since our money situation is bad. This also goes well with stocks or gold or oil or whatever as well. When we have no money to buy something and we need to cash something out, then we do it and the price goes down and same would apply to all markets.

This is why I believe that crypto is not so different from other markets. What its different for that it is decentralized, can't be regulated in a way to change the blockchain codes, and it is in a way free to roam however you want with your investments without SEC worrying you.

the crypto market is no different from other markets, it's just that it has high volatility, so speculators will prefer to invest in the crypto market considering it will be easier to get a lot of profit. when the market is bearish as it is today, don't let us regret in the future for not taking advantage of the opportunity to buy. what are we afraid of when investing in bitcoin, eth or bnb, I don't think it contains a big risk

Rengga Jati

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Quote from: Ryu_Ar1 on June 13, 2022, 06:12:48 PM

These few days or even these few months it is certain that many bitcoin lovers have their hearts beating fast considering that the decline is always happening and the Bear Market is still being felt so many people who don't like bitcoin talk more than ever and people who are starting out in Crypto feel that their choice to be here was a big mistake.

This is a complete resume of real conditions in the crypto world, moreover related to Bitcoin. We can't deny it. That is why only certain people who already exactly know the value of Bitcoin that can survive due to this condition. Additionally, there are still so many FUDs that will never end.
We cannot blame new people who are coming to crypto and feel failed because their Bitcoin rate to the dollar has dropped during this bearish era. They think that they lost their money. However, in fact, we don't lose money if we don't sell the BTC, because if we are holding the BTC, we can keep them and hold them until the bullish era. We are sure because we beleive that BTC will always rise up in the next bullish and we trust the value of Bitcoin.

Quote from: Ryu_Ar1 on June 13, 2022, 06:12:48 PM

There is an instant and current economic concept is to buy at the lowest possible price and sell at the highest possible price. isn't it like that?

Although we actually don't know at what rate the lowest price and the highest rate of Bitcoin in certan times. But at least, if we keep holding the Bitcoin and wait for the Bullrun or a certain rate of the price, we will meet the rate as we expect. The key is patience, of course some other key elements of investment must be also implemented to have clear and promising investment

justdimin

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Quote from: landheer on September 13, 2022, 12:15:50 AM

interesting topic,, in 2021 bitcoin experienced a very high price, and now the price has gone down. and that in my opinion is the impact of the sluggish world economy that makes people finally sell their bitcoins, or it can be called, many people take advantage of their investments because the market is bull. and finally the price of bitcoin fell because many were selling. and finally there is a bear market. now the existence of a bear market means opening up good opportunities for those of us who are interested in investing in bitcoin. and will hold it until one day there is a maximum profit.

World economy is tied to bitcoin because both of them are tied to us. If the price of bitcoin goes up then that means we have money to buy it, if the price doesn't go up then it means we are selling since our money situation is bad. This also goes well with stocks or gold or oil or whatever as well. When we have no money to buy something and we need to cash something out, then we do it and the price goes down and same would apply to all markets.

This is why I believe that crypto is not so different from other markets. What its different for that it is decentralized, can't be regulated in a way to change the blockchain codes, and it is in a way free to roam however you want with your investments without SEC worrying you.

franky1

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the silly thing is..
.. people still stupidly think that the stable, supported value of bitcoin belongs at the top. where they call the corrects a "crash" or a decline.

what people really need to remember is that the few days before the correction is the temporary event thats not sustainable. these unsustainable unstable events are the speculative bubble highs. the jumps before they can walk..

bitcoins price right now is at the great value area. not the premium. its where the price should naturally and slowly progress upwards

its not meant to be thought of huge leaps and stay up high and then cry if it comes down where people are screaming "why did it go down"

its meant to be a slow rise where people see temporary bubble spike and question why the high

its to expect progressive increase . where any large leaps up are the temporary event to take advantage of but expect the correction back to good value

xzy887

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Quote from: btc_angela on June 22, 2022, 06:19:39 AM

And please, don't listen to those who will tell that it's the end of bitcoin, because it's not.

Yes, you are right. Instead of listening to negative talk about Bitcoin, you should listen to people who understand the market better. Every time there was a bear market in bitcoin some people said bitcoin was dead which never actually happened. If one can invest in Bitcoin now and hold it until the market improves, one can profit.But there is no specific time when the market will be good. But I think you will not get such opportunity to invest in Bitcoin. Because Bitcoin is down a lot right now which will go up very soon. So if you want to invest in Bitcoin then this is the right time.

landheer

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interesting topic,, in 2021 bitcoin experienced a very high price, and now the price has gone down. and that in my opinion is the impact of the sluggish world economy that makes people finally sell their bitcoins, or it can be called, many people take advantage of their investments because the market is bull. and finally the price of bitcoin fell because many were selling. and finally there is a bear market. now the existence of a bear market means opening up good opportunities for those of us who are interested in investing in bitcoin. and will hold it until one day there is a maximum profit.

Doan9269

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Quote from: Ryu_Ar1 on June 13, 2022, 06:12:48 PM

As for those who still want to be here and who can take advantage of opportunities and have their own research, this also has an advantage because indeed this is another big discount and of course this must be used as best as possible so that we can taste something sweet at the end because of course investing is not There is an instant and current economic concept is to buy at the lowest possible price and sell at the highest possible price. isn't it like that?

Definitely everyone will want to take good advantage of buying at low in kther to sell high at later but we must not forget that it's never balanced in the sense that as one looses same is the potentials for having the tendencies to gain and this will be on how effective we understand the market strategies, many people have been here over years but no significant influence they came out with from the bitcoin rise and fall yet the rate of their losses is still more bigger than their profits realisation, why is because they don't understand the season to the moves on bitcoin price speculation.

ImThour

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Bitcoin Bottom was at $15.4k

I have personally experienced 3 bear markets now.
- 2020 Covid Crash
- 2021 Crash
- This current market

I can say that when there is no hope in the market, that's the time you start buying.
I am already half invested however I still think there is a little hope around, so I am DCAing a small amount of money.

Let's see how this one goes.

btc_angela

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I was here in 2018 already so I have experienced that bear market and I would say seeing in the first time, I was really shock and I don't know what to do then. But we all survived our first and then added that experience on our shoulder. And yes, bear market is the perfect time to accumulate and increased our bitcoin holding. And as the cycle repeats itself again, then we should take advantage of it and not bitch around and complain that bear market is very bad. And please, don't listen to those who will tell that it's the end of bitcoin, because it's not.

tranthidung

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Quote from: GreatArkansas on June 13, 2022, 06:51:37 PM

Expecting that some people are starting to get scared about buying during the cheap prices of Bitcoin. To be honest, if I only have a lot of extra funds, this level is my buying zone.

Bottom price will be somewhere from $11,000 to $15,000 in my opinion and price under $18,000 a few days ago is a good discount enough to start accumulating Bitcoin.

Quote

It's become a practice and cycle for me, even how dip the market will be and how the bear market will go or stay, we still can't guarantee it. Maybe some people are afraid because of very long waiting for their ROI which for me is normal if you are into Bitcoin, but the wait is worth it.

If one investor believes in Bitcoin and believe it will reclaim and make a new all time high in next bull run, buying in a price range from $11,000 to under $20,000 is not much different. It would be a very good discount entry and in next bull run, many new Bitcoin 'investors' will hope that they can time-traveling to buy it in this bear market.

By believing, I mean truly believing based on comprehensive knowledge in Bitcoin and good experience with the market.

Poker Player

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I would say that what differentiates previous cycles from this one is not so much the bear market as the bull market, at least for the time being. With the institutional investors that have come in, the price has only made a high of 3.5 times the previous ath, and all predictions fell short, including very sophisticated models like S2F.

If we have bottomed out in terms of price, this is not going to be one of the worst bear market cycles, but it is another matter if for some event we drop sharply downwards and break down the lows again.

Fivestar4everMVP

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Quote from: Quidat on June 13, 2022, 06:17:44 PM

Now we do have this current situation/condition on where we are almost on the floor in speaking with percentage drop.
Its not something new but there are still people who do really freaking out whenever they do see these declines and instead on seeing it as an
opportunity they do instead panic sell which is a dumb decision to be made.

And this is why we keep saying "Only invest as much as you can afford to loose", The only reason why anybody who invested in Bitcoin or any other crypto coin would panic upon a price decline is because they invest above what they can comfortably do away with, there are several people that invest all that they have hoping for a quick profit, and when this doesn't happen due to the price of Bitcoin going down, they begin to panic, and from there, they are forced to panic sell at a loss which is what we term as "Buying high, selling low".
I've been there before so i totally understand all this things Grin

.
So to conclude, if only investors can learn to only invest as much as they can afford to look away from for a long time, there wouldn't be a lot of panic and panic selling anytime there is a retrace in the price of Bitcoin or any other crypto asset.

maria1110

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Thanks for sharing
the history has to be some indictaion

kryptqnick

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While not many people have been around to witness the 2011 or 2013 situations, I think most remember the 2018 fall and that it laster long with temporary successes. I just thought that maybe Bitcoin is mature enough to lose, say, 50% of its value, but not more than that. Apparently, it's not. The lows are of course getting higher after each ATH, but the percentage loss is still way too high. It just keeps falling down, and while sometimes a movement like this can be followed by a big jump towards recovery, I'm not sure it's happening soon. It doesn't seem like the bottom was reached because the price just keeps falling. And I really don't see any good reason for what's going on. But, well, we'll survive through this.

Ryu_Ar1

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Quote from: GreatArkansas on June 13, 2022, 06:51:37 PM

Quote from: Ryu_Ar1 on June 13, 2022, 06:12:48 PM

(......)
As for those who still want to be here and who can take advantage of opportunities and have their own research, this also has an advantage because indeed this is another big discount and of course this must be used as best as possible so that we can taste something sweet at the end because of course investing is not There is an instant and current economic concept is to buy at the lowest possible price and sell at the highest possible price. isn't it like that?

Expecting that some people are starting to get scared about buying during the cheap prices of Bitcoin. To be honest, if I only have a lot of extra funds, this level is my buying zone.
It's become a practice and cycle for me, even how dip the market will be and how the bear market will go or stay, we still can't guarantee it. Maybe some people are afraid because of very long waiting for their ROI which for me is normal if you are into Bitcoin, but the wait is worth it.

But the fact is nowadays, especially for beginners, they sell more and it's better to lose temporarily than having to wait Grin

This is a fact that is quite sad but indeed this is also understandable because sometimes many people find it difficult to learn this properly.

Talking about buying I am now paying off little by little and this is quite good in my opinion especially in the past few days but indeed I am also still waiting for something big to happen because I still feel that this fallout will happen for some time to come.

Jody.Drummer

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I agree to the last point in your paragraph because indeed this is not the time to Panic, on the other hand this is a pretty good thing to add to the load (if you still have spare funds) because this is another big discount coming but on the other hand it really isn't there is nothing wrong with becoming hodlers if indeed we are at a point where we experience losses there and never try to sell in this case, especially if you don't do research and can't do that, it's better to become hodlers, at least it's still very worth it it's to wait.

Topic: Several Phases of the Bitcoin Bear Market (Read 423 times)