Topic: Several reasons explaining the Crypto Price Crash (without BS) - page 2. (Read 572 times)

Yes, all the things you have mentioned has an impact on the current price drop, but we all know that Bitcoin goes through "Boom" and "Bust" cycles ...just like any other commodity.    People should just stop concentrating on finding reasons for a price crash and just look at Bitcoin as a long-term (hodl) investment strategy. (If you want to use it as an investment option)

I am actually more excited when there is a price crash, because I see that as an opportunity to buy more coins at a cheaper price. (I hoard cash for opportunities like this) 

Biggest reason for financial markets(Stock, Crypto etc) crashing like crazy these days is inflation in USA basically which keeps rising over time which could lead to another recession soon.

This single reason had the biggest impact while other reasons like LUNA, UST, Crypto Exchanges, Celsius etc had a minor impact in comparison.

These bear markets won't last forever though just like bull markets which is why this is a great time to purchase popular cryptocurrencies like BTC, ETH etc in my opinion. However, invest only what you are willing to lose people.

World economy is based on trust.
What Bitcoin "created" so far is a lot of victims who lost money to thousands of scams and even "genuine" products like LUNA brought more victims into this world.

The average Joe needs to trust the system, not to be afraid of it.

When you get more and more and more victims, and it's only rolling like a giant snowball - then no math in the world can save it. And this is where we're heading now.

incase anyone says the FUD and you want to correct them

the TL:dr; version
in short.. the coins are safe and locked AWAY from the market and only will be spent if the price dropped to $3562* a coin.

saylor has over 115.110k coins, so is happily able to, and contractually agreed keep adding collateral to back the loan company in a scenario of continual price decline all the way down to $3562* where its agreed the loan company and himself would have to create new terms or end the contract. thus the coins are safe from being spent/sold unless the price dropped to $3562*

(whereby if the loan company chose the option to sell at $3562*, they would then sell 57.55k coin total collateral after multiple margin thresholds passed, and multple collateral rebalances down to that point)

---

the waffle version:
saylor wanted to buy alot a coin at $41k a few months back..
he did not sell any coin to buy more coin. nor want to use his own cash.. so he instead locked 5000btc as collateral with another company who gave him $205m fiat

the company giving the fiat had a termsheet that if the btc price halved to $20.5k then saylor would need to lock up another 5000btc to bring the collateral back into balance of being worth the same loan amount of $205m

this is not about losing or selling btc. is about locking up coin off/away the market. as collateral
this is not about the company which loaned the cash selling the collateral either.
the terms of the loan are that if the price went to $10.25k then saylor would have to lock up another 10k coins. if the price went to $5.125k then saylor would need to lock up a further 20k
saylor already agreed that he would happily keep the collateral balanced all the way down to a price point of $3562 before having to negotiate a settlement whereby the loan company could just sell the coins.. or create a new contract of adding more collateral in different format should the loan company not want to accept btc below that point as collateral..

.. but we are a long ways away from the risk of the loan company keeping ~57.55k of coins(combined collateral after several margin call thresholds passing down to the $3562* point) and selling them off if the price was $3562* if the loan company chose that option at that point

* the $3562 i mention, before the loan agreement comes to a dead-lock
with the term sheet limit of agreed amount saylor would happily give to collateral (its half his current holdings (115110/2) coins valued at the loan amount should the price go down to that)
($205m/57.55k coins=$3562)

https://cryptobriefing.com/michael-saylor-defends-bitcoin-backed-loan/

I also have some coins that I got when the price was $300-$400. I won't say this isn't concerning because I would hate to see bitcoin destroyed by shitcoiners who buy it to pump their shitcoins and then dump it as they exit their scam like Luna founder did. Every time Bitcoin falls there has to be some drama behind it. In 2014 we had MtGox collapse and in 2018 there was all that drama with bitcoin fees and bitcoin cash "the new king" Meanwhile we had China mining bans, Tesla pump and dump, suddenly Bitcoin started to be bad for the environment, stablecoins became unstable, and so on. Now fudders are working to make everyone scared of Michael Saylor dumping just like years ago they were trying to scare everyone with fake satoshis who had access to Genesis Block and were about to dump it all.

To all of the new guys reading this:
All of my friends who I've talked about bitcoin in the last 9 years regretted not buying bitcoin or selling it and exiting the market. There was not a single person who felt good about selling or about not buying it when they had the chance. Don't believe that the market is going to disappear all of a sudden. People who had thousands of Bitcoins and sold did not do it to leave and forget about it. They did it to make you sell and buy back more because the ultimate goal for most of them is to have the largest piece of the pie. Without scaring you they can't make you sell it cheap.

i personally have a hoard from the old days(2012-14 era). so my hoard is in profit so i dont care about their value as the price even today is way way way above their acquisition costs. so i am not in panic mode nor care to sell.. so i dont care and am ignoring the value of that hoard.

my personal presumptions were that the value window of 2021-22 of ~$25k-$70k meant the price last month of ~$29k was very good value.

however seeing the 2021-2022 discounts for the era. its good value to buy a bit more. i dont need it. but i happily spent $6k of fiat(unused/unneeded disposable fiat income i wont need/miss for a while) to buy more at the $29k/btc value. and will be doing it again this week at the even better value to buy. (it helps average down my 2021-22 era stash)

i dont recommend anyone stake their life savings or house at any 'bet' or presumption others state. but if you do have disposable income you wont miss. you might aswell give it a try.

by disposable income i mean things you would normally waste income on.. like drive-thru's and fast food that just become a toilet flush the next day.
things you spend that you will never see value returned on again.
like buying some in-game credit for a feature that has a time expiry where you dont benefit from that spend after the time expires.

EG if you are thinking of buying a brand new car. realise the very day after buying it. it is a second hand car and loses a few $xk of value instantly.. meaning if you bought a second hand car of same year/model. the value would be the same on day 2 as a new car on day 2. so save yourself a bit of disposable income, buy it second hand and invest the savings instead of losing it completely overnight (like a fast food becoming just a toilet flush after 1 days digestion)

think smart. dont just take a blind punt/bet using more then you can risk living without.
also if the price goes down more. you can just use next weeks/next months spare/available disposable income to get even more. rather then draining yourself in one shot meaning you cant take future opportunities.
never be in a situation when seeing a price go down as a complete loss of life savings.
think of it as just a delay in ROI of disposable income thats not life changing risk. and think of the low as a opportunity to gain more cheaply before the next rise

One word: math.

Bitcoin is based on math. It has finite supply, known, stable rate at which new coins are mined and has been following a number of curves and staying within certain averages since it was created.
You can find people explaining the math behind bitcoin in various articles and videos. There are only 2 possible outcomes for bitcoin which are growth or death because halvings make sure the value will grow and with it there will be greater interest and adoption.

If bitcoin continues to exist it will have another halving and it will have more of its supply lost forever, making it more and more scarce. If it's still there in 2 years, you can be sure it will trade for more than today and with 5% inflation on most fiat currencies, bitcoin will have to be worth at least $35k in 2 years. There's no other way around it.

People focus too much on highs, but it's really the lows that tell a story. Highs are very volatile and jump all over the charts, but lows are showing a slow and steady growth. I don't know how low we will crash from here but I'm ready to bet that we will never again see 2020 lows.

me so sure?
it was someone else that mentioned cycles, trends, seasons. im just rolling with their conversation and their presumed next ATH, based on their usage of their conversations of seasons and cycles.

presumption is not assurance. hense why i used the word presumption

here is a hint.
NEVER EVER think that people are psychic or time travellers from the future and know things about the future for a assured prediction.. (dont be a blind sheep follower due to one persons presumptions/confidence in their post)

people can be confident about their own presumptions, but never ever be confident about other peoples presumptions.. in short. dont base your opinion solely on another persons presumptions due to what you conceive as their confidence or their context of how they made a presumption.

take everything as an opinion and a presumption. but atleast see if what they say has any detail that atleast has some aspect of context to their presumption. and not some random number plucked out of their hat.

i purposefully didnt say any future value presumption or specific date( hour day month) of any presumption. so there is no assurance.

with that said. there are many factors that build many peoples presumptions. such as the 4 year cycle/seasons correlate due to other things of 4 years. like the halving event. (as others here and in other topics have mentioned a few times)
(EG the pattern of the 4 year season is JUST ONE FACTOR.. dont base your own opinion on just one factor mentioned in one topic... find more, other clues. build up alot of info from alot of sources, by this i dont mean find multiple topics about one factor to then stand by one factor, simply because its mentioned by many people. i actually mean find many factors about different details that help you build a bigger picture )

do your own research and take peoples opinions and presumptions and things that they use to base their presumptions. not as something to be spoon fed to you as a complete finished answer to stand by. but as a tip-bit of opinion to gather, along with other pieces from other sources. and then doing your own research to build up even more detail together and then with more info from many sources.. then form your own presumption..

the reason i say this is because of one simple fact..
when too many people know of a pattern. people then try to 'beat' the pattern by playing against the pattern. which then changes the pattern.
sometimes people do sheep follow an historic pattern and just set their trade-bot to just blindly follow the trend, causing the trend to repeat itself. where the pattern may not have happened again without the blind following the blind.

you cant predict which scenario will come next, blindly repeat, or break away.. so gather more info of more sources and try to make your own independent presumptions

no one can predict the future. but you can narrow down possibilities until your are more confident yourself

How can you be so sure about it?

i was rounding to the nearest $x00 based on memory. my posts point was not the specificity of the value to the exact penny. it was more about the dates.

..
anyway in (using the cycle dates) 3 years at the next presumed ATH, people will be wishing they bought at ~$20k+ in 2022

I think the true catalyst was the collapse of Celsius, and I guess the coin couldn't bear it any more. Binance surely didn't help.

At one point during 2015 if memory serves me well the price was below $200, although for months it was between $220 and $250 which at the time served as proof to many that Bitcoin was just a pump&dump scheme after it crossed $1000. I remember that period as if it were yesterday, and 7 years have passed in the blink of an eye.

Iirc it went even under 250$ (or was it under 200$?)


Indeed:

2013 ATH - 2014 DISCOUNT $1.2k-$300
2017 ATH - 2018 DISCOUNT $20k -$3k
2021 ATH - 2022 DISCOUNT $70k- (so far $21k)
.. on that bases of the cycles.. the next ATH would be in 3 years

i wouldnt say its "winter" id say we are in the spring sales period where everyone can get old stock cheap

Exactly! We have seen the same trend in 2017 - 18 and it is repeating itself. But it's interesting to see whether the price breaks the previous ATH or not. But at the current price point, bitcoin looks really lucrative.

The stock markets around the world are taking hit from inflation. Bitcoin is not an exceptional asset because it's value is usually determined by the dollar equivalent. There's uncertainties around both narkets. Those who can buy more, will become huge in few years.

Not at all. US interest rates have been low for certain things for 14+ years. Other parts of the world have not. BTC is worldwide and does not stop at the border.
Rates have been going up and down for a while on investments even in the US
https://www.treasurydirect.gov/indiv/research/indepth/ebonds/res_e_bonds_eeratesandterms_eebondsissued051997_042005.htm

Most people can see that this is part of a boom / bust cycle AND can also see that there are a lot of similarities to the past ones.

-Dave

a thing to note about binance events.

when an exchange(thats not binance) has a withdrawal method of the binance chain.. the exchange(thats not binance) keeps the real BTC. and uses 'pre-pegged' reserve of binance chain to move value from exchange to binance..

binance cant easily remove pegged reserve on binance chain. to then unlock to then do proper btc withdrawals for people wanting to exit binance with real btc..

so when alot of people move value from one exchange to binance and try to remove real btc from binance.. it hits a bottleneck.

binance cant release the binancechain coin to use as cold wallet coin to fulfil general binance exchange customers withdrawals to the actual bitcoin blockchain easily.

..
binance would prefer and did initiate a suspension of actual bitcoin withdrawals and told users to use the binance chain out of binance to other exchanges.. (to rebalance the reserves in opposite direction as binance was top-heavy in binance chain token but low-light on actual bitcoin

sending people out of binance via their binance chain would rebalance their reserves and take the 'bank run' of real btc liability off of them if they push people to only get real btc via other exchanges
...

with all that said. people then decide (like they did in the 2014 events of MTGox) to sell their BTC for fiat and hope to escape with fiat rather than be suspended in an exchange that might suspend btc withdrawals.
which the other exchanges(not affected) sheepishly follow the price down with more arbitraging  between exchanges by using more reserves of sidechain/stablecoin crap like binance chain

There was no raise of interest rates since 2007-2008, i.e. it's 14+ years now.
This is the main element that is changing everything.

This is not the first of the crash and price plummet, it has happened in 2014 and 2018, so this time it should not be what is special, but people will all the time link false information to false information. I remember the time of covid-19 too, bitcoin falled from $10000 to 3800 in March 2020, they said it was covid-19 that caused it, they have forgotten that bitcoin also crashed to $3800 in 2019. After the crash in 2020, still during covid-19, bitcoin increased back. The crash now is not because of luna or whatever they said it is, it is because we are in bear market which may last until next year.

Cheers.
One more to add:

• NFT
• The NFT market is pretty bust - it was a complete bubble that got burst (look @ ApeCoin for that matter - $3.78 seems quite "expensive" despite its peak at $25 a few months ago)