Topic: Shipped ASICs = Bitcoin goes down? - page 2. (Read 4466 times)
Its also possible that the reward drop and ASIC hit at about the same time so supply would stay the same with 5-minute, 25btc blocks. As difficulty rises, supply will drop.
I think it is very possible.
When BFL ships ASICs, a lot of BTC will be mined during short period of time. And difficulty is not allowed to rise more than 4x times, so next 2016 blocks will be mined fast as well, and next ones too. And a lot of miners will try to cash out to get money spent for the ASICs. Will all this lead to big drop in Bitcoin price? Perhaps it's better to stop hoarding of expensive bitcoins and wait for cheap ones?
I've been saying this for a very long time. The coming weeks and month are likely going to be a rough awakening for lots of folks around here.
There is a possibility that will happen. It will be the electricity cost of running an ASIC that sets the bottom price. Miners might get worried and sell their ASIC rigs, if they fear not being able recuperate their costs. The price drops if difficulty does not rise enough, if to many GPU miners quit.
There are less than 100k BTC at MtGox. But if u think ASICs won't change the price a lot...
When BFL ships ASICs, a lot of BTC will be mined during short period of time. And difficulty is not allowed to rise more than 4x times, so next 2016 blocks will be mined fast as well, and next ones too. And a lot of miners will try to cash out to get money spent for the ASICs. Will all this lead to big drop in Bitcoin price? Perhaps it's better to stop hoarding of expensive bitcoins and wait for cheap ones?
good point. back of envelope calculations:
10million bitcoins exist, in 2k blocks we should add another 10k BTC. so if we mine at double the normal speed, then we'd get an extra 10k BTC than we'd normally get. Assuming market cap stays constant we'd see a proportional drop in value. 10k/10m = 0.1% drop in value. If we mine at 1000% faster rate, we'd see a ~1% drop in value.
When BFL ships ASICs, a lot of BTC will be mined during short period of time. And difficulty is not allowed to rise more than 4x times, so next 2016 blocks will be mined fast as well, and next ones too. And a lot of miners will try to cash out to get money spent for the ASICs. Will all this lead to big drop in Bitcoin price? Perhaps it's better to stop hoarding of expensive bitcoins and wait for cheap ones?
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