No one has a crystal ball, but volatility is a given for next week. It certainly is fun to speculate, which is what I'm doing below, so please no flames
First, we saw the value stabilise a bit after a major downturn, for which there still hasn't been any explanations:
- some people say it was the instawallet hack cashing out
- some people say it was goldman sachs or similar giving it a pump/dump trial run
- some say it just 'was'. The confident kind that don't wonder about yesterday's activity on blockchain for example.
But let me tell you that beyond the 'balls of steel' day traders and the 'I'm in it because of the ideology' crowd, the stabilisation had a mental impact. It certainly had on me, and I cashed out like a pussy for fear that in case of a crash, my exchange (which is not mtgox) would default (god knows what they do with their cash).
Second, no one really knows how many early adopters with major wallets are still left in the game, and their behaviour is radically different from the 'new batch' of investors that read about it on CNN and populates the vast majority of the 12K Mtgox waiting queue. These new guys are coming in with dreams of 'BTC rising every day', worry about having 'missed out'. 30% volatility is going to seriously pour water on their fire. It's one thing to have bought at 20 for 500 usd and act like you're a millionaire pro trader, it's another to be john doe pushing 10K USD only to find out it's now worth 7 ten minutes later. It's not for the faint hearted.
Third, and this is just my suggestive opinion, we're fast approaching another hack/ddoss. Now the experts on this forum don't have a problem keeping a cool head when they can't logon their exchange, but trust me the newbies won't be so zen. And when/if the said exchange reopens it's going to be one sweet drop to the bottom panic sell. Wont' be gox though.
Finally, and hopefully I don't need to remind anyone about this, but bitcoinstore announced 500k usd revenue / week, and that's only a quiet hour of trading on gox. Look up 'hyperdeflation'.
So in my view:
- Best case scenarios: the hardcores still control 50% of the coins and keep gunning for that 1k valuation. The speculators are all n00bs who will soak most of the losses, the btc will hold steady after wild ups and downs. I'd like that very much, for the sake of everyone.
- Worst case scenarios: the guys who could cash out for life-changing amounts have all cashed out and bought their mandatory porshe caymans minus a few, who will next week, and we're going to see the influence of pro hedge funds trying to manipulate the market. In turn, it will scare away the n00bs providing support at 130 and it's going to crash right back down to 50.
TL;DR: whatever happens will be defined by whoever is currently supporting that 130's valuation: the new batch who bought at 130, or the long terms players hoping for further profit.
