@arepo No, it's not that simple for me, the changes that would become resultant in other indicators and charts based on that strong of a price movement is what would cause me to change my analysis as I don't believe the market has that kind of firepower remaining in it. After working out the numbers for it, the main point being that we just don't have that kind of volume right now in the market to sustain that high of a movement, which might change soon enough.
Price has stabilized, volume has continued decreasing, and likelyhood of a breakout within the next 24 hours is very high. Buy walls are virtually equal (~40k) between 95 and 125 with the price currently dead in between @ 112.
I believe infllux of good news has done well to negate the selling pressure, but the buzz has started to fade and the indicators have not changed, still pointing the arrow down.
I've decided to rename this thread as the original discussion of the topic has long since passed.
Topic: Short-Term Market Movement Discussion/Predictions (Read 7062 times)
If price strikes above 130 by Monday, then I may have to retract my claim that price would be below $100 come June, as that would be a strong indicator that the bear market is over.
if the price strikes X in one day, then your midterm calculations get changed? check your scales, there... we're still in a period of high-volatility consolidation since the crash. this price oscillation isn't really significant. we won't know bull/bear midterm until it breaks out of this consolidation decisively in 2-4 weeks.
I targeted 107 as the strike price for the weekend, which was already hit, but the decline should return back near the end of Sunday or shortly after, as for what happens between then, the price could stagnate or potentially still rally to the 130s considering the strong rally that led prices up to 116
my analysis has shown similar, if not more bullish projections. by fractal analysis, price could reach at most $130 by this time tomorrow, with a continued rise up to at most $150 on Monday and Tuesday, then a major correction by Wednesday.
I think it's too early to call a reversal, but if you're right then 150 is certainly possible... We'd probably go even higher, maybe ~180 by June. The price is certainly volatile but I don't know if a move from 80-150 over 72 hours is possible given the price movement post crash.
As I stated earlier, the market data is extremely skewed due to the lag spikes on gox, so conclusions made from data acquired over the last 24 hours should be taken with a grain of salt.
If price strikes above 130 by Monday, then I may have to retract my claim that price would be below $100 come June, as that would be a strong indicator that the bear market is over.
However, many indicators from the data I gathered prior to lag caused me to choose ~110 as target price for the weekend, and revise it down to ~107 and ~75 as the target next week. I have no reason to change that conclusion, but I'm not a psychic, and I've been wrong many times and lost a lot of money from overextending, which is why nowadays I'm paranoid enough to diversify everything which is ironic.
Data over the next 24 hours should help me cement or revise my conclusions. We all come up with different ideas, and that's fine as long as we all make money in the end.
As I stated earlier, the market data is extremely skewed due to the lag spikes on gox, so conclusions made from data acquired over the last 24 hours should be taken with a grain of salt.
If price strikes above 130 by Monday, then I may have to retract my claim that price would be below $100 come June, as that would be a strong indicator that the bear market is over.
However, many indicators from the data I gathered prior to lag caused me to choose ~110 as target price for the weekend, and revise it down to ~107 and ~75 as the target next week. I have no reason to change that conclusion, but I'm not a psychic, and I've been wrong many times and lost a lot of money from overextending, which is why nowadays I'm paranoid enough to diversify everything which is ironic.
Data over the next 24 hours should help me cement or revise my conclusions. We all come up with different ideas, and that's fine as long as we all make money in the end.
I targeted 107 as the strike price for the weekend, which was already hit, but the decline should return back near the end of Sunday or shortly after, as for what happens between then, the price could stagnate or potentially still rally to the 130s considering the strong rally that led prices up to 116
my analysis has shown similar, if not more bullish projections. by fractal analysis, price could reach at most $130 by this time tomorrow, with a continued rise up to at most $150 on Monday and Tuesday, then a major correction by Wednesday.
Recent news will have no immediate effect on the overall price movement, if any. I targeted 107 as the strike price for the weekend, which was already hit, but the decline should return back near the end of Sunday or shortly after, as for what happens between then, the price could stagnate or potentially still rally to the 130s considering the strong rally that led prices up to 116, but at this point it is too dangerous to trade considering the small walls in both directions and erratic price movements leading to skewed charts/indicators due to the mtgox lag, at this point there is a thick fog blocking vision.
Double digits are still a strong possibility, in fact, I am still leaning towards my original prediction of striking through the 80s wall by next weekend as no significant information was brought into the picture besides the CCTV/China hype. Overall, the bad news still outweighs the good.
Double digits are still a strong possibility, in fact, I am still leaning towards my original prediction of striking through the 80s wall by next weekend as no significant information was brought into the picture besides the CCTV/China hype. Overall, the bad news still outweighs the good.
Well, looks like I was wrong. China came and joined the party... goodbye double digits for a while.
For now this rally is all speculative as the real money has not showed up yet. Might get back down to $100 as rocket fuel shipments get delayed over the weekend
For now this rally is all speculative as the real money has not showed up yet. Might get back down to $100 as rocket fuel shipments get delayed over the weekend
Seems that the recent flash to 80 was too quick for my taste, my personal take is that we're crossing into oversold territory, might see a rebound to ~110 soon before returning back on the downward trend and slowly heading back.
110 ? No way.
I like how confident you are
Original targets of 110 and 107 both striked out.
High has reached 116 and the day has just started!! very surprising indeed! Nice stuff to wake up to in the morning
My sets of limits I placed between 105-115 were all eaten up, but not so much the 115-125s that I placed, which I am probably going to cancel and place @ different tiers once I do some recalibrating.... Regardless based on this strong momentum and volume, might even see 130 striked by the end of Sunday.
High has reached 116 and the day has just started!! very surprising indeed! Nice stuff to wake up to in the morning
My sets of limits I placed between 105-115 were all eaten up, but not so much the 115-125s that I placed, which I am probably going to cancel and place @ different tiers once I do some recalibrating.... Regardless based on this strong momentum and volume, might even see 130 striked by the end of Sunday.
So far so good
I've revised my target high for the weekend to ~107 based on price movement over the last 12 hours. Have limit sells set a little below that which I hope to see filled
High 90s is a more reasonable target, I'd say 97 is a very safe target and I have placed a few orders around that area, but considering the volatility of the market I would not be surprised to see it break the 100s for a short period of time.
However by end of next week I believe we will be treading the 75 territory.
High 90s is a more reasonable target, I'd say 97 is a very safe target and I have placed a few orders around that area, but considering the volatility of the market I would not be surprised to see it break the 100s for a short period of time.
However by end of next week I believe we will be treading the 75 territory.
More like high-90s for a 50% retracement of the last selloff. Which seems to be happening now.
Seems that the recent flash to 80 was too quick for my taste, my personal take is that we're crossing into oversold territory, might see a rebound to ~110 soon before returning back on the downward trend and slowly heading back.
110 ? No way.
Seems that the recent flash to 80 was too quick for my taste, my personal take is that we're crossing into oversold territory, might see a rebound to ~110 soon before returning back on the downward trend and slowly heading back.
110 ? No way.
Seems that the recent flash to 80 was too quick for my taste, my personal take is that we're crossing into oversold territory, might see a rebound to ~110 soon before returning back on the downward trend and slowly heading back.
100 wall broke faster than expected, might see a flash crash down to 70 with a flash rebound to the 110s, overall everything still on schedule.
Not really surprising. 100 was never a really relevant stop point recently. We got past 100 surprisingly fast on the move up and same so on the rebound back from 50+
To the contrary, 90 and 120/130 seem to be nailed into our public memory as being way more relevant.
100 wall broke faster than expected, might see a flash crash down to 70 with a flash rebound to the 110s, overall everything still on schedule.
Price will be lower than it is today come June...
Price will be lower than it is today come June...
There are wild and educated guesses, my educated guess based on many indicators and studies that I've done predicts the price to be sub 100 by the end of May to Mid-June, very small and slow upwards growth beginning again around August. Alternative theory I'm beginning to craft is the price decline being more far reaching and the recession in price lasting until mid 2014, but not enough info/support to make that my primary guess atm.
Should you sell all of your holdings? No, I still hold a sizable amount of my portfolio 40% in BTC, with 20/20 being hedged in fiat/alt cryptos, as I gather more information with each passing day, the picture becomes more clear and I'm able to adjust this distribution accordingly. Don't listen to anyone on these forums including me, just use the info here as guidelines on areas to follow up on. Most of the TA posted on here is amateurish and 98% of the fundamentals/speculation are based on hype and not real facts (such as predicting Eurozone collapse will send btc to the moon is a bunch of nonsense).
Should you sell all of your holdings? No, I still hold a sizable amount of my portfolio 40% in BTC, with 20/20 being hedged in fiat/alt cryptos, as I gather more information with each passing day, the picture becomes more clear and I'm able to adjust this distribution accordingly. Don't listen to anyone on these forums including me, just use the info here as guidelines on areas to follow up on. Most of the TA posted on here is amateurish and 98% of the fundamentals/speculation are based on hype and not real facts (such as predicting Eurozone collapse will send btc to the moon is a bunch of nonsense).
You expect the bubble pop to take as long as in 2011?
Hell, any price in 3 months seems to be a wild guess.
Hell, any price in 3 months seems to be a wild guess.
120 wall has been cracked. Next support level will be 100, which will fall soon enough.
Expect the rebound to stop at 120, sell some of your btc and hold fiat or hedge into alt-cryptos, that is my recommendation, or just hold all of your btc and come back in 2 years and see if they are worth either $0 or $1000
Expect the rebound to stop at 120, sell some of your btc and hold fiat or hedge into alt-cryptos, that is my recommendation, or just hold all of your btc and come back in 2 years and see if they are worth either $0 or $1000
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