Shorting BTC !! (sort of) Looking for Bulls! - page 2.

adraza

member

Activity: 113

Merit: 10

Quote from: adraza on April 17, 2013, 06:24:52 PM

Short term Bet for Short term bulls

A=24
B=100
X=1
Y=1.8

I will accept this bet without taking into consideration the STARTING MtGox price, higher or lower than 100.
Waiting for 1 hour.

LONG term Bet for LONG term bulls

A=1000
B=100
X=1
Y=2.8

I will accept this bet without taking into consideration the STARTING MtGox price, higher or lower than 100.
Waiting 48 hours.

adraza

member

Activity: 113

Merit: 10

I have the same conditions even if the price is higher than 100.

You can accuse me of scamming if I lose the bet and do not pay the previously agree sum.
Right now you are just talking to yourself.

MrTeal

legendary

Activity: 1274

Merit: 1004

Quote from: adraza on April 17, 2013, 06:14:24 PM

Quote from: MrTeal on April 17, 2013, 06:07:38 PM

Quote from: adraza on April 17, 2013, 05:58:58 PM

The Bull:
Buying BTC now with the hope the price will be HIGHER later.
That's the definition, right?

So, until now I could not get any bull to post here.
At least not a short term bull. Is it a bear market?
Then I may become a bull myself Roll Eyes

What about this bet:

A=1000 (about 40 days)
B=100
X=1
Y=5.5

I agree I was out of line with 1:6 odds

Given those odds, you are a bull. If you believe that there's a 50% chance the price will be less than 100 in 40 days, appropriate odds for you would be closer to 1:1. The fact you need 5.5:1 odds in order to make a bet that the price will be anywhere from worthless to a little bit up shows you either think it's very likely the price will rise, or you aren't serious about actually attracting any action.

Yeah right!
I am so bull that I LOSE the bet in almost all cases IF the price is bigger than now.
I win only if the price stays between present price=92.30 and 100.

And of course I Win if the price is LOWER than now (which is my bearish expectation)

You think that the price will go down, but you're demanding a bet where someone has to put 5.5BTC against your 1BTC. Not only that, you're giving yourself a fudge factor by saying that the price can go up as long as it stays below 100.

That screams a lack of confidence in the price going down. If you were a true bear, you would take a 1:1 bet that the price would be below the current price in 40 days, not the crap you're trying to peddle here.

mgio

hero member

Activity: 546

Merit: 500

Quote from: adraza on April 17, 2013, 06:24:52 PM

Short term Bet for Short term bulls

A=24
B=100
X=1
Y=1.8

I will accept this bet without taking into consideration the MtGox price, higher or lower than 100.
Open offer for 1 hour.

LONG term Bet for LONG term bulls

A=1000
B=100
X=1
Y=2.8

I will accept this bet without taking into consideration the MtGox price, higher or lower than 100.
Open offer for 48 hours.

Still a horrible bet. You need to offer BETTER than even odds.

Everyone, this guy is trying to scam you. DO NOT take these bets!

adraza

member

Activity: 113

Merit: 10

Short term Bet for Short term bulls

A=24
B=100
X=1
Y=1.8

I will accept this bet without taking into consideration the MtGox price, higher or lower than 100.
Waiting for 1 hour.

LONG term Bet for LONG term bulls

A=1000
B=100
X=1
Y=2.8

I will accept this bet without taking into consideration the MtGox price, higher or lower than 100.
Waiting 48 hours.

adraza

member

Activity: 113

Merit: 10

Quote from: MrTeal on April 17, 2013, 06:07:38 PM

Quote from: adraza on April 17, 2013, 05:58:58 PM

The Bull:
Buying BTC now with the hope the price will be HIGHER later.
That's the definition, right?

So, until now I could not get any bull to post here.
At least not a short term bull. Is it a bear market?
Then I may become a bull myself Roll Eyes

What about this bet:

A=1000 (about 40 days)
B=100
X=1
Y=5.5

I agree I was out of line with 1:6 odds

Given those odds, you are a bull. If you believe that there's a 50% chance the price will be less than 100 in 40 days, appropriate odds for you would be closer to 1:1. The fact you need 5.5:1 odds in order to make a bet that the price will be anywhere from worthless to a little bit up shows you either think it's very likely the price will rise, or you aren't serious about actually attracting any action.

Yeah right!
I am so bull that I LOSE the bet in almost all cases IF the price is bigger than now.
I win only if the price stays between present price=92.30 and 100.

And of course I Win if the price is LOWER than now (which is my bearish expectation)

adraza

member

Activity: 113

Merit: 10

Quote from: mgio on April 17, 2013, 06:04:09 PM

Just because most of us have invested in bitcoins, doesn't mean we are idiots.

Can you see something here?

MrTeal

legendary

Activity: 1274

Merit: 1004

Quote from: adraza on April 17, 2013, 05:58:58 PM

The Bull:
Buying BTC now with the hope the price will be HIGHER later.
That's the definition, right?

So, until now I could not get any bull to post here.
At least not a short term bull. Is it a bear market?
Then I may become a bull myself Roll Eyes

What about this bet:

A=1000 (about 40 days)
B=100
X=1
Y=5.5

I agree I was out of line with 1:6 odds

Given those odds, you are a bull. If you believe that there's a 50% chance the price will be less than 100 in 40 days, appropriate odds for you would be closer to 1:1. The fact you need 5.5:1 odds in order to make a bet that the price will be anywhere from worthless to a little bit up shows you either think it's very likely the price will rise, or you aren't serious about actually attracting any action.

mgio

hero member

Activity: 546

Merit: 500

Quote from: adraza on April 17, 2013, 05:58:58 PM

The Bull:
Buying BTC now with the hope the price will be HIGHER later.
That's the definition, right?

So, until now I could not get any bull to post here.
At least not a short term bull. Is it a bear market?
Then I may become a bull myself Roll Eyes

What about this bet:

A=1000 (about 40 days)
B=100
X=1
Y=5.5

I agree I was out of line with 1:6 odds

Your odd are still horrible.

Try this:

A=100
B=91
X=1
Y=1

Someone might take you up on that. If you are determined to use B=100, try:

A=100
B=100
X=6
Y=1

Someone might take you up on that too.

Just because most of us have invested in bitcoins, doesn't mean we are idiots.

adraza

member

Activity: 113

Merit: 10

The Bull:
Buying BTC now with the hope the price will be HIGHER later.
That's the definition, right?

So, until now I could not get any bull to post here.
At least not a short term bull. Is it a bear market?
Then I may become a bull myself Roll Eyes

What about this bet:

A=1000 (about 40 days)
B=100
X=1
Y=5.5

I agree I was out of line with 1:6 odds

adraza

member

Activity: 113

Merit: 10

I had tried bitfinex. But they crash once every hour or so. I like to have some control over my money.

MOB

hero member

Activity: 493

Merit: 504

There are some 31.5K BTC to just get to 100 right now. Whereas for you to win your bet you need only 31.499K BTC or less traction to be made against that wall.

As the other poster already said, only a moron would take this bet at present odds.

Even at 1:1 the bear bet would be the safe and smart bet.

mgio

hero member

Activity: 546

Merit: 500

Quote from: adraza on April 17, 2013, 05:39:27 PM

So what kind of odds would an Intelligent Bull Human Being would accept?

If your answer is 6:1 then you are wrong.

Your number "B" is HIGHER than the current price. If you are neither a bull nor a bear and consider bitcoin to be a random walk (and with this volatility in a 24 period it is!), then you have a 50/50 chance of it being higher (or lower). Since B is higher than the current price, you need to offer better than even odds and you have offered way way worse.

Brushan

member

Activity: 224

Merit: 10

Why don't you short on bitfinex? Borrow BTC, sell them, price goes down, buy back, close position.

adraza

member

Activity: 113

Merit: 10

So what kind of odds would an Intelligent Bull Human Being would accept?

If your answer is 6:1 then you are wrong.

mgio

hero member

Activity: 546

Merit: 500

wow, only an idiot would take your bet.

adraza

member

Activity: 113

Merit: 10

Yes, indeed.
As I was saying, right now the price is 92.
Are you interested?

MOB

hero member

Activity: 493

Merit: 504

Nice odds you gave yourself there...

adraza

member

Activity: 113

Merit: 10

I have some reasons to be a bit bearish about BTC price. But all the present "shorting" mechanisms do not really please me.
So I was thinking of something else:

Betting on Mtgox BTC price on this forum.

For example I bet that after exactly A hours from now the BTC price at Mtgox will be equal or less than B USD.
And I am giving odds of X:Y

To be crystal clear:
I bet X BTC saying that after exactly A hours the MTGox BTC price will be less or equal to B $
and the Bull bets Y BTC saying that after exactly A hours the MTGox BTC price will be higher than B $.

After exactly A h the winner takes the total X+Y BTC.

First bet would be:
A=24
B=100
X=1
Y=6

What do you say?

Current price at Mtgox is around 91.
7/6 is almost 17% return.

Edited
Yeah right!
Read along! Just tuning.
Don't take this numbers seriously!
True offers will come

Topic: Shorting BTC !! (sort of) Looking for Bulls! - page 2. (Read 1908 times)