Topic: Should we rely on prediction? - page 13. (Read 1886 times)

Op, with all due respect to you, don't you know that last 2021 the ATH of bitcoin's value became if I'm not mistaken it reached 68k$, and after reaching that the value in the market continued to fall until now. Then the prediction is a prediction that can happen or. the prediction will not happen. That means it depends on each individual to believe. And I think many people are really hoping that 2024 or more will really plunge the value of Bitcoin in the market. But this is not an assurance that their prediction will actually happen.

I share your view, but still, there are accurate predictors, and if you follow them very, you might be surprised at the high level of the result. I've not seen this with Bitcoin though, but I still pride myself that all my analyses on this forum always work. This is not about preaching perfection, but to tell you that prediction works. But those who publish it online mostly publish rubbish, and you should still not expect any prediction to be perfect because the market is dynamic. Bitcoin has its flaws too, it could be so frustrating for trend predictors, unlike many assets I know. Can you imagine what it did in the past 11 days? So frustrating.

Bottomline: Choose carefully where you get your predictions, and you might be positively surprised.

Relying on predictions will not be a problem for anyone it's just to estimate the price in a given year even free people want to do any prediction to guess the price of bitcoin later.

This article is quite interesting because the prediction is lower than usual, we see how other predictions with speculators are 100K more or even 170k in 2025 but people do have different opinions as if it is true if in their respective views, but I have my own prediction that after halving and being in 2025 then the price of bitcoin can be 100k.

And what are predictions supposed to be? A good prediction is an expectation based on observation and conclusion with historical factors, charts, technical analysis, or any rational way to reach an acceptable expectation. For example, saying that Bitcoin will return to 30,000 is an acceptable expectation, and saying that we will break the $100,000 is an acceptable expectation. , And to say that the price will be one million dollars is an unlikely prediction in the short term.

If we know with 100% certainty that the price will go to 100,000 after about 6 months, then we will all be rich, as we will sell our homes and everything we own, buy bitcoin, wait 6 months, and welcome more than 3 times the wealth in a short time, but it is uncertainty and risk that makes us invest With caution it makes for our valuable investment.

Bitcoin is very volatile which is not easy to predict because price movements can be influenced by several factors that we never know before, and their predictions may have a point, but it is these factors that change it.
and for me going into bitcoin only takes faith, and also strong patience because of factors that sometimes make us stress and also panic. So this belief will strengthen us to continue to believe that bitcoin will go up in the long term because bitcoin is indeed a promising long-term investment, and I don't really believe in predictions because most of them don't meet expectations due to several factors.

What can we expect in crypto world mate? this is what we need to accept here in our world , we have been dealing in crypto for how many years and yes speculation and prediction is our only weapon.
but at least we need to have analyzation and  dedication and of course , try to communicate with the community for better understanding.

That's why its called "prediction" because no one knows what will be the future price of Bitcoin.
And for me, if you are in cryptocurrency or any financial market, this is a normal and popular topic, which is price prediction.

Where most people will share their speculate on specific assets just like Bitcoin. So for me, never rely on prediction without any basis. Anyone can give any numbers.

You said mid to late 2025 is when the peak will occur, how certain are you that it will happen as you said or believe?
As of last year November ending before I joined the forum, it was said that Bitcoin will go higher than it is now I think between $30-$35 this year (I think), before second half of this year that it will get to that price but up till now it's struggling to even get to $32. That made me to only see it come to pass before buying that idea/prediction of happening and when I see such predictions again I just don't believe it will happen.

It's just a wild and educated guess. Specially in a market that is very volatile such as bitcoin, predicting the price movement is very hard. And if you heard about the so called S2F model, which the majority (including myself), was a solid predicting model, and that everything goes on smooth until it didn't hit the $100,000 prediction last bull run.

So we should learn and accept the fact that everything is prediction here. And it's going to be a hit or miss even if they presented solid and strong facts a why the price will go this X in the next bull run.

People have been making predictions for years now for Bitcoin. Usually during a bull market we get crazy predictions by many celebrities and financial advisors, even banks.

The issue is that nobody knows what the actual price will be. No way you would or proved $69K would be the top or $20K in 2017. Anyone that claims they got it correct, was simply lucky.

If you're going to think about it, all of it is just speculation, prediction, etc. There's no actual way to predict the market accurately so, I mean yes we believed in what Bitcoin can do, and probably believed that it is going to reach the market price of 100k$ but we aren't sure about that since we do not know what could happen in the future. I mean if world war III starts tomorrow are 100k$ on Bitcoin still going to be a thing, I really doubt that and I don't know if it is going to happen, since as we analyze in the last when people speculate because of the war the market price drop significantly.

A prediction is just a prediction so that wouldn't really make any impact, there was no proof of it that it is going to happen, If you invest in some meme coins, for example, you could predict that it's going to reach 1$ in the future like what happened to dogecoin but that didn't really happen. So I wouldn't rely on predictions, what you could do is analyze the market and the Bitcoin study technology, news, timelines, etc. then start to speculate. You could relay on facts and history, it was accurate but there was a proof.

Math doesn’t lie. The halving is real and so is demand for Bitcoin. What exactly the price will be during the next peak I can’t say. It’s basically a guess. What I do feel good about saying though is that sometime in mid to late 2025 is when the peak will occur. If there isn’t any more shenanigans from FTX style frauds, it should be a blowoff top that will be very obvious when it happens.

To all you have said, I believe that many people are waiting for when it (Bitcoin) will get to $60k around this year especially those investors. I don't know but all these predictions are just like a prank, is either you believe it or you accept reality.
The prediction we're talking about is still we humans that are giving it (anybody can come up and drop a prediction that before September Bitcoin will rise yo $35k) so is best to follow the price as it is like what we're seeing than wait for some kind of expectations.

This is the power of optimism because we can't say with genuineness that it must happened that is why it's called speculation or predictions, and a predictions is said to be used instead of "Could" as a word of no action or action that is Said to be 'Unrealistic' whether it may come to pass or not but we are not sure and can't give an account to act accordingly but one thing for sure, we keep hoping that's why lot of speculators are always optimistic about bitcoin price.

This is possible to predict but the assurance of the price to effect as what they had predicted is where the problems lays.There are series of tells about bitcoin price although same came to pass while some didn't yield any fruit to it because it doesn't work they way it was predicted.

Like few post above did said "Life himself is a probability" and the probability for an event to effect and take place is still Zero or One, as a learned investor or smart crypto enthusiast you should be able to hold knowing too well how the system independently operates even though we found it to be driven by information and possible some positive news although it could be negative news as well but it doesn't mean there will be no changes in the global cryptocurrency market.

That's why those who missing the track of the train always which for the train to find its way back the previous position so that they could hop in, to take their moved, that's why is always advisable to fill your bag as little as you can to be able to enjoy the free rides when the time comes.

Bitcoin future value is unpredictable and the highest spectators could do is to speculate the future price of Bitcoin without any form of accuracy, is normal for investors to be anxious about bitcoin future value since there are events line up  in the next coming months/years such as the bitcoin haven and the rest,  this events will push bitcoin price to rise significantly but when that price increase (ATH) will be is what is uncertain for all of us.

So the highest we can do right now is t only speculate the possible future price of Bitcoin,  and doing so,  it means we must beer I mind that there is a high chances that our predictions may not work according to how we except them to be and that is why,  holding Bitcoin should be done with a long term mentality to avoid any possible panic action whenever the opposites to our predictions happen I the market.

A prediction is a prediction, a very volatile market cannot be relied on just a prediction, and you can't just make an analytical studies on particular market since no one knows what could its price in the next month due to its volatility behaviour. You just have to risk and invest what you can afford to lose when it comes to investment, because it can gain profits and take loses.

A forecast = prediction is a guess, we only estimate the probability of its occurrence in the future. Surely, everyone has their own prediction because they will predict it according to their own approach, their own point of view, and their own research. I'm not surprised if there are too many predictions made by people related to the potential price of Bitcoin in 2023, 2024, or 2025. However, I believe that the price in the next bullrun season (2025), the price should be above $69,000. We can count it based on the price history of each BTC ATH in the previous bullrun seasons.

The maximum BTC price yearly, according to the link:
It is very doubtful that the maximum price will be only around $31,000 for 2 years (2023-2024). And in 2025, how can the price will be $53,000, below its current ATH. If it happens, the BTC halving means to have less impact on the demand. As far as I know, BTC always created a new ATH every 4 years. It implies a bigger price in 2025, it should be above $68,000-$69,000.

BTC highest price every 4 year cycles
2010   $0.40 (starting)
2013   $1,163 (first bullrun)
2017   $19,892 (second bullrun)
2021   $68,789 (third bullrun)
2025    -------- (fourth bullrun)

Reference: https://bitcoinmagazine.com/guides/bitcoin-price-history

Should I say I'll think about it? Still finding it difficult to give it a try too soon, let's see how it will be like by the end of this year.
Now you have your own prediction, should I believe that by 2026 Bitcoin will get to $100,000? I can't say anything about that, my question is what are you saying about this year?
Hold on a minute did you just say by 2026, it's that a long time to wait?
Don't want investors to keep relying on this predictions unless they see it happening, if not it will be a heart break for them.

That we are going to see tomorrow is under probability. Everything in life is about probability.

I hope you will invest or you have invested in bitcoin so that you will not be one of the people that will say they have missed again. Bitcoin is going to over $100000 before 2026.

Let me say since the beginning of this year we have been getting different prediction on Bitcoin prizes and investors too have been keeping their hopes very high on those predictions...

Those doing these predictions are having so much expectations and they said, Bitcoin will recover to $25k in 2024 and then rise to $45k in 2025 them by 2030 Bitcoin will get to $69k. Other crypto analysts suggest even higher price targets ranging from $100,000 to $1 million, but we should keep in mind that all Bitcoin forecasts are predictions. CLICK HERE

With all these being said I feel is time we face the reality that all these are just predictions, is under probability.