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Topic: Siacoin Trading Thread - page 25. (Read 75674 times)

full member
Activity: 173
Merit: 100
June 14, 2015, 12:13:42 AM

The math on Siafunds has been done many times and many moons ago. Any lucky smart siafund holder only has to sit on his lazy lard ass and watch his wallet fill with coinsproportionate to the Billions of dollars being spent on Sia evey year for the rest of his life.

i can do it again.
~8800 siafunds were valued at ~$5,000,000 (by a better investor than most of us here)
so 1 siafund = ~$568 =~BTC2.47 (at 230usd per btc)


I think I know which I'd rather have as an investor.

But again everyone wins here. Miners make income, hosts run a business, Sia stays ahead of the competition with the Siafund income,
and Siafund private holders piggyback on Nebulous' hard work and fortune.

True.
sr. member
Activity: 316
Merit: 250
Simcoin Puny Humans Communicator
June 14, 2015, 12:05:44 AM

What you miss is: If siacoins are not worth alot, then holding 1 siafund out of 10000 gaining 3,9% of the renting fees will also generate siacoins that are not worth alot.


Really, its you that are missing it totally. I hope Siacoins themselves are worth a lot per coin for your sake. But you fail to get that
if Siacoin were worth fractions of a penny each is irrelevant to Siafunds. Siafunds earn a percentage of all host income. Get it? The dollar
amount spent on storage. So if people love Sia and must use it and Siacoins are dirt cheap, then all that would happen is hosts will charge
more in Siacoins to equal the dollar value of current storage rates. If Siacoins are worth 233 dollars per coins. Then hosts will charge
a fraction of a Siacoin to again equal the current dollar rate of storage. Because renters will pay the dollar value of storage not the
siacoin value. So the market cap of siacoins are irrelevant to the value of siafunds. Just because Siacoin is artificially inflated due to
people like you creating scarcity does not mean people are going to pay more dollar wise to rent storage. Get it?
sr. member
Activity: 316
Merit: 250
Simcoin Puny Humans Communicator
June 13, 2015, 11:56:34 PM

Do the math: 1 siafund at 1/10000 of 3,9% of fees will earn you a total of 0,0000039x of all fees.
So in order for it to ROI, you would roughly 140000 worth of btc = 31,5 million usd spent on renting.
Whenever that happens the coins themselves have ROIed AGES ago.

The math on Siafunds has been done many times and many moons ago. As I said previously siafunds were and are expensive.
To roi and make a killing is going to require many dollars spent on storage. But compared to your horded Siacoins that you have
mined early and will obviously no longer be able to accumulate at that rate it will have a modest value per coin. Because in case you
haven't noticed nobody gives two tits about altcoins anymore let alone bitcoins relatively speaking. Speculation on Sia is at best short
term like any other altcoin. What separates Sia is after the speculation game is over it actually has a real world business model that
people outside of crypto potentially could care a lot about. And it is only because of the storage rental aspect of Sia will Siacoins
hold any value long term.

The market will do what it will do. People might try to create scarcity and not sell but unlike other coins the supply will keep increasing
forever. So if you want to horde them thats fine, but you will never stop the newly mined coins from selling forever. Like I said its a
circulation coin not a speculation coin.

To put it more simple. Whenever the rewards of siafunds will earn you a ball of icecream, my holdings of siacoins have paid out several trips around the world.


If David and Luke didn't need any funding they could have created Siacoin and build in 1 Siafund that earns 3.9%
of all storage contracts. Then if Sia were to be a multi Billion dollar business their income would be hundreds of millions. So if that were
to happen wouldn't you wish you could have a small % of that one siafund?

It is absolutely nuts to fight over which is better Siacoin or Siafund. What you fail to grasp is if Sia's storage rental aspect
never catches on then Siacoin will be worth one hair less than bantha fodder. So both lose. If Sia replaces all centralized cloud
then your horded coins that you sold at a price that takes into consideration there are 10s of Billions of Sia in circulation have
put good money in your pocket. But now you blew your load and are out of Siacoins and must earn them again by mining (which will
go asic by then) or sell storage. Any lucky siafund holder only has to sit on his lazy lard ass and watch his wallet fill with coins
proportionate to the Billions of dollars being spent on Sia evey year for the rest of his life.

I think I know which I'd rather have as an investor.

But again everyone wins here. Miners make income, hosts run a business, Sia stays ahead of the competition with the Siafund income,
and Siafund private holders piggyback on Nebulous' hard work and fortune.
sr. member
Activity: 316
Merit: 250
Simcoin Puny Humans Communicator
June 13, 2015, 11:53:14 PM

Selling your Siacoins as soon as you mine them and as soon as you are paid as a host is what will make you real income
for as long as Sia lives.


That is ALREADY wrong - at least for me. Sorry.

Its okay, you would say that. You're a miner and trying to sell your stash at a big premium right now. You're biased.

Although I'm a siafund investor my opinions are never biased. I can tell it like it is even if its against my benefit.
full member
Activity: 196
Merit: 100
June 13, 2015, 11:40:22 PM

Selling your Siacoins as soon as you mine them and as soon as you are paid as a host is what will make you real income
for as long as Sia lives.


That is ALREADY wrong - at least for me. Sorry.
sr. member
Activity: 316
Merit: 250
Simcoin Puny Humans Communicator
June 13, 2015, 11:14:05 PM
Well said, grandpa! Btw, are you the number 2 of the Siafunds individual holders. I know jl777hodl is the number 1 and another J_L might be the number 3 guy.

Without looking at the final list I'm pretty sure in the top 5 unless some have multiple accounts. I'm proud to have stuck it through since
the beginning but am not a good trader or else I could have double the siafunds. I did buy when it tanked but like everyone else
wish I bought more. But siafunds were and are not cheap so there was a time I thought I bought too many. Still, even if all goes to plan
it will be years not months until siafunders are rewarded substantially is my belief. I'm long on Sia.


What could be the demand if there is 1 million or 2 or 5 million SIA cloud users one day? or more. And who knows, could see apps being wrote to utilize this new technology, powered by SIA coin. To me its very conceivable based on what I have learned about it thus far.

True. I tend to think realistically (or pessimistically) even with investments I'm in love with. So I personally don't see 5 Million
Sia users anytime soon. I hope for it, and if it does happen I can't imagine it happening overnight.

So you're right. If it comes true and we truly replaced most centralized cloud storage, most movies and music stream
using Sia, most businesses use Sia for their storage needs because its the cheapest and best solution then yea, Siacoins will increase in
price a ton compared to today. But by that time there will be Billions upon Billions in circulation and no limit unlike Bitcoin. So I still say
you will never be a Millionaire holding a Million Siacoins today.

Selling your Siacoins as soon as you mine them and as soon as you are paid as a host is what will make you real income
for as long as Sia lives.

full member
Activity: 196
Merit: 100
June 13, 2015, 11:09:41 PM
Siacoin is going to be so different from all other coins for so many reasons including speculation. It was intentionally designed this way
to not have large speculative traits. Certainly we are at the beginning and it must surely rise in price unless its a failure.
First of all i dont see any reason not to compare it with other minable coins like DASH/DarkCoin.
Miners, Devs, buy / sell pressure - we can learn from history here and see:
If the coin provides use (anon payment for dash) then it will gain value.
Another thing is the first movers advantage, which is quite strong and which is why bitcoin is still around.
(Seen any other non coins beeing successful? no  - only for short times at 1/10 of what dash is).
I really dont see any point, which indicates it to be designed not to have large speculative traits.
Even the fees can be compared to other networks, at which they are paid to miners or holders (PoS) and most likely sold.


If all goes well and Sia has a large user base with lots of demand for storage then there will be big buy pressure. But it will also have
equally if not more selling pressure. This is intentional I believe. Not even the founders believe Siacoins themselves will be worth a ton.
After the initial rise and price discovery Siacoin will find a consistent price parity I believe based on the storage market. So buying for
speculation will not be an avenue.

The miners mine and sell right away, who buys? The people who rent storage. Those people take these newly bought Siacoins and
right away give them to hosts who provide them the storage. The hosts take these coins and sell them again to people who are
going to use them to rent storage.
I totally disagree on this part. If Siacoin will be successful storage-renting-wise, then it will be because of miners and traders.
They shift attention to it. As more miners and traders focus sia (and generate volume on exchanges), this will pull in even more traders etc.
This increased attention might lead to more people using the storage. So the renting - at least for the first months - will only create
ADDITIONAL buying pressure or reason not to dump coins. I have an example of someone mining and holding some of the coins in order
to upload files lateron.

Now these same hosts who get paid Siacoins from renters also get 3.9% of this payment subtracted as a fee to siafunds. The devs
who hold the majority of Siafunds in turn take these Siacoins and immediately I would imagine turn them into btc or dollars to pay
for their employees which will hopefully be in the hundreds soon. So from Nebulous alone there will be a constant sell pressure which was
the point of Siafunds. Sia is different. The devs are incorporated and their company Nebulous has "Googleesque" aspirations. Now imagine
a coin that is backed by Millions in income for development money and time.

In order for Sia to grow in users it needs money to develop faster. In order to develop faster it needs people to rent a lot of
storage. But how do you get people to trust and use Sia storage without professional polish and stability? Thats why now, the
beginning is crucial. With not a lot of money the dev team have to make Sia Superman strong, reliable and sexy with less money
and more work.

So price speculation is relevant now. But its not going to be like bitcoin where you hope in 3 years it has over a Billion MC. Imo
thats not going to happen. (But I'm usually wrong)

This is why siafunds is the real investment with huge possible rewards. If the storage rental aspect of Sia catches on then Siafunds
create a consistent income in the small fee hosts pay forever. Siacoins will always be just simple income, like dollars. Nobody buys dollars
hoping for 10x return. People earn dollars to buy stuff. Renting out storage and mining earns you Siacoins which will
always be worth x amount of bitcoins or dollars which in turn buys you stuff and pays your bills.

So what I'm trying to say is holding Siacoins for speculation is silly. Sell some now, sell some later when it goes up (maybe who knows).
But it ain't a hoarding coin, its a circulation coin.
Of course development will be important. Yet thats the same for all coins and blockchain services.
On this block of analysis you try to point out the value of siafunds compared to siacoins.
What you miss is: If siacoins are not worth alot, then holding 1 siafund out of 10000 gaining 3,9% of the renting fees will also generate siacoins that are not worth alot.
Whenever you attract as many people to use sia for renting, you will definately also attract a few collectors and investors, that buy and hold, which will lead to an increase in value of sia.
So we have the following chain:
--> If the tech of cloud hosting on sia works (which it does, tho polishing is required)
--> traders and investors will shift attention to it (think about adding it to an exchange and it getting high volume)
--> more people might actually use the renting
To think that sia initially will gain alot attention among people not comming from the coin-community (miners, traders) early on is very unlikely.

So siacoin beeing successful is a precondition for siafunds to be successful.

I like that people bought siafunds to support the development - of course - but calling it the real investment is wayy too unlikely compared to siacoin

To put it more simple. Whenever the rewards of siafunds will earn you a ball of icecream, my holdings of siacoins have paid out several trips around the world.

Do the math: 1 siafund at 1/10000 of 3,9% of fees will earn you a total of 0,0000039x of all fees.
So in order for it to ROI, you would roughly 140000 worth of btc = 31,5 million usd spent on renting.
Whenever that happens the coins themselves have ROIed AGES ago.
sr. member
Activity: 280
Merit: 250
June 13, 2015, 09:37:29 PM
 I think folks are holding ATM to wait and see how the project moves along and then if and when it hits an exchange will it be worth selling or holding even longer, especially if SIA storage is catching on. It has explosive possibilities as far as its potential demand is concern.

So for me I am holding for all the above reasons, kinda wait and see. Yes .15/mil seems attractive, but who knows even that may be way undervalued right now. Think about it, that's 1 million coins!  Grin

What could be the demand if there is 1 million or 2 or 5 million SIA cloud users one day? or more. And who knows, could see apps being wrote to utilize this new technology, powered by SIA coin. To me its very conceivable based on what I have learned about it thus far.

EDIT: Like Grandpa says, got to make it sexy and superman strong. Just make it cool. Capture that FB crowd and we're on our way and all them millennial's that love data and cloud for all their junk lol for the devs, remember the old KISS principle  Smiley
hero member
Activity: 763
Merit: 500
June 13, 2015, 09:27:34 PM
Well said, grandpa! Btw, are you the number 2 of the Siafunds individual holders. I know jl777hodl is the number 1 and another J_L might be the number 3 guy.
sr. member
Activity: 316
Merit: 250
Simcoin Puny Humans Communicator
June 13, 2015, 08:15:55 PM
My speculation analysis. I believe most of what I wrote is true or will come true. Read if you're bored. If you don't
wanna read and rather play Call of Duty and snipe some noobs I can understand that too and will join you later.

Siacoin is going to be so different from all other coins for so many reasons including speculation. It was intentionally designed this way
to not have large speculative traits. Certainly we are at the beginning and it must surely rise in price unless its a failure.

If all goes well and Sia has a large user base with lots of demand for storage then there will be big buy pressure. But it will also have
equally if not more selling pressure. This is intentional I believe. Not even the founders believe Siacoins themselves will be worth a ton.
After the initial rise and price discovery Siacoin will find a consistent price parity I believe based on the storage market. So buying for
speculation will not be an avenue.

The miners mine and sell right away, who buys? The people who rent storage. Those people take these newly bought Siacoins and
right away give them to hosts who provide them the storage. The hosts take these coins and sell them again to people who are
going to use them to rent storage.

Now these same hosts who get paid Siacoins from renters also get 3.9% of this payment subtracted as a fee to siafunds. The devs
who hold the majority of Siafunds in turn take these Siacoins and immediately I would imagine turn them into btc or dollars to pay
for their employees which will hopefully be in the hundreds soon. So from Nebulous alone there will be a constant sell pressure which was
the point of Siafunds. Sia is different. The devs are incorporated and their company Nebulous has "Googleesque" aspirations. Now imagine
a coin that is backed by Millions in income for development money and time.

In order for Sia to grow in users it needs money to develop faster. In order to develop faster it needs people to rent a lot of
storage. But how do you get people to trust and use Sia storage without professional polish and stability? Thats why now, the
beginning is crucial. With not a lot of money the dev team have to make Sia Superman strong, reliable and sexy with less money
and more work.

So price speculation is relevant now. But its not going to be like bitcoin where you hope in 3 years it has over a Billion MC. Imo
thats not going to happen. (But I'm usually wrong)

This is why siafunds is the real investment with huge possible rewards. If the storage rental aspect of Sia catches on then Siafunds
create a consistent income in the small fee hosts pay forever. Siacoins will always be just simple income, like dollars. Nobody buys dollars
hoping for 10x return. People earn dollars to buy stuff. Renting out storage and mining earns you Siacoins which will
always be worth x amount of bitcoins or dollars which in turn buys you stuff and pays your bills.

So what I'm trying to say is holding Siacoins for speculation is silly. Sell some now, sell some later when it goes up (maybe who knows).
But it ain't a hoarding coin, its a circulation coin.

hero member
Activity: 543
Merit: 501
June 13, 2015, 07:27:38 PM
interesting

Total Siacoin   1.270703 GS
Siacoin Sent   5.070840 GS



Don't put much stock in that number. I think it's double and triple counting.

The tool was written by an intern and I haven't had a chance to code review it.
member
Activity: 87
Merit: 10
June 13, 2015, 06:32:54 PM
WTS 6M SIA for 1btc (0.17 per million).

I'll buy your 6M for .8 btc and what the heck I'll send first if you agree.
sr. member
Activity: 336
Merit: 250
AKA jefdiesel
June 13, 2015, 06:12:07 PM
interesting

Total Siacoin   1.270703 GS
Siacoin Sent   5.070840 GS

member
Activity: 110
Merit: 10
June 13, 2015, 06:01:09 PM
WTS 6M SIA for 1btc (0.17 per million).
full member
Activity: 196
Merit: 100
June 13, 2015, 05:38:01 PM
d34g13
stop spamming this topic with your offer.  Cheesy

then just buy it up and its gone Cheesy

also i like if things keep rolling - and a some of those offers on that google sheet might be outdated already

market is fast moving so its good to know whos in play - isnt it ?

If you do not drastically lower your price just wait for an exchange ...

there is no reason to as you can see prices moving towards me.
I offered in that region when people said 0.08 per mil is overpriced

now we have an offer like thisone:

Looking to buy 60million sia for 0.15BTC/million.  Total of 9 BTC PM if interested or with counteroffer.  

im pretty confident that i will find a buyer before we hit exchanges - especially if prices keep growing like they do

as long as there are people willing to buy tons (as they are) and sellers drying out of coins (as they are) the price will increase

maybe someone might be interested to pay higher now to ensure he will get my offer, before normal price level reaches my offer and it gets sold infront of their eyes Smiley

i predict that my offer is sold in max of 1 week

3 days ago we had prices around 0.08, so price almost doubled in 3 days - double 0.15 again in maximum of 7 days and my offer is reached by normal price level

the big question would be: is there any other seller still selling (aside from 1m offers) other than me Smiley
sr. member
Activity: 481
Merit: 250
June 13, 2015, 05:30:30 PM
d34g13
stop spamming this topic with your offer.  Cheesy

then just buy it up and its gone Cheesy

also i like if things keep rolling - and a some of those offers on that google sheet might be outdated already

market is fast moving so its good to know whos in play - isnt it ?

If you do not drastically lower your price just wait for an exchange ...
full member
Activity: 196
Merit: 100
June 13, 2015, 05:10:34 PM
d34g13
stop spamming this topic with your offer.  Cheesy

then just buy it up and its gone Cheesy

also i like if things keep rolling - and a some of those offers on that google sheet might be outdated already

market is fast moving so its good to know whos in play - isnt it ?
legendary
Activity: 2026
Merit: 1005
June 13, 2015, 05:09:01 PM
d34g13
stop spamming this topic with your offer.  Cheesy
full member
Activity: 196
Merit: 100
June 13, 2015, 04:58:35 PM

requesting the ones out of stock to be removed Smiley

as i said not many are selling Smiley)))




not totally true. I'm doing some deals at .12/M


i said "not many" - i can also rephrase to: not many coins are sold at those prices

and that is true from my perspective Smiley


anyways - still my offer:
selling
1x 8m = 2 btc
1x 12m = 4 btc

pm me
full member
Activity: 196
Merit: 100
June 13, 2015, 04:57:30 PM
1.2 billions of Siacoins have been mined. Where are they?

simply not for sale for such low prices Smiley

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