Six blocks in 11 minutes! Bitcoin on steroids?

Harley997

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Quote from: Sniar on June 16, 2014, 05:50:41 AM

Quote from: zetaray on June 10, 2014, 02:28:00 AM

This the reason why difficulty has been climbing month after month at an exponential rate. I blame it on too much hashing power on a single pool. I am happy I am not a miner, ROI seems further and further away.

Yup , new miner is really taking a lot time to cover their investment tho and it might take longer than just buying the bitcoin outright.

Most miners will never reach ROI and never will they. Miners have to pay for electric costs out of their mining proceeds, and when electric costs exceed their proceeds they will shut off their miners.

Sniar

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Quote from: zetaray on June 10, 2014, 02:28:00 AM

This the reason why difficulty has been climbing month after month at an exponential rate. I blame it on too much hashing power on a single pool. I am happy I am not a miner, ROI seems further and further away.

Yup , new miner is really taking a lot time to cover their investment tho and it might take longer than just buying the bitcoin outright.

JypsiCreme

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Why the hell is it compared to anything on steroids?

Harley997

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Quote from: Justin00 on June 15, 2014, 02:23:12 AM

still means my coffee woulda been cold if a) coffee shop accepted bitcoins and b) waited for 6 confirms
but ya, 6 in 11 mins is not to shaby at all

Merchants that sell low value products like coffee could rely on 0/unconfirmed TX as it would cost a lot to attempt a double spend attack on a $5 purchase

Justin00

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still means my coffee woulda been cold if a) coffee shop accepted bitcoins and b) waited for 6 confirms
but ya, 6 in 11 mins is not to shaby at all

Harley997

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Quote from: ljudotina on June 12, 2014, 02:21:06 PM

Yes, it all depends on how much hash is added to network in between diff changes. Steeper change, sooner it will get.

It has to do with luck as well.

hellscabane

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Quote from: Bit_Happy on June 12, 2014, 02:36:01 PM

Just had 6 blocks within 16 minutes (ending ~17 minutes ago)

305463    17 minutes    395    2,273.73 BTC    72.83.147.125    243.36
305462    22 minutes    32    504.36 BTC    Polmine    14.85
305461    26 minutes    81    497.38 BTC    Slush    46.14
305460    27 minutes    35    469.12 BTC    GHash.IO    21.07
305459    24 minutes    432    46,996.86 BTC    BTC Guild    287.12
305458    33 minutes    128    101,239.74 BTC    Polmine    148.88

Obviously a few fast blocks is just from random odds.

Quote from: hellscabane on June 11, 2014, 12:44:57 PM

Quote from: eleuthria on June 10, 2014, 10:40:06 AM

6 blocks in 10 minutes has happened a few times before, just like 0 blocks in 60 minutes happens about once a month. 6 in 10 minutes is a bit rarer though.

Since DeathandTaxes did the math for the frequency of the OPs post, I couldn't help but do the comparison of this during one of my breaks at work. Hehe.

With ideal block propagation averages:

6 blocks in 10 minutes (i.e. P[X=6] for λ=1) once every ~13.6 days.
0 blocks in 60 minutes (i.e. P[X=0] for λ=6) once every ~16.8 days.

As a note the chances of 6 or more blocks in 10 minutes (i.e. 1-P[X<6] for λ=1) is once every ~11.6 days.

So it seems that 6 blocks in 10 minutes is a bit more common than no blocks in the expected time for 6 blocks.

So it is normal over twice (or even three times) a month?
Seeing the math is amazing thank you and DeathandTaxes for doing that.

Yes, it's normal for the six block thing to happen multiple times in a month. I know, crazy huh? That's the funny thing about probabilities and proportionality. When something has a .05% chance of happening, something in a lot of people instinctively think that is super rare. But over the scale of thousands of events such as a month of which there are around 4,300 10-minute events, that .05% event has an expectancy of occurring about 2 times.

As a side note, we would expect a 7-block event once every ~3 months, an 8-block event every ~2 years, a 9-block event every ~2 decades and a 10-block event ~2 "lifetimes" (about 187 years). Mind you though, this is assuming "normal" block propagation times (which we are running faster than at the moment).

Bit_Happy

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A Great Time to Start Something!

Just had 6 blocks within 16 minutes (ending ~17 minutes ago)

305463    17 minutes    395    2,273.73 BTC    72.83.147.125    243.36
305462    22 minutes    32    504.36 BTC    Polmine    14.85
305461    26 minutes    81    497.38 BTC    Slush    46.14
305460    27 minutes    35    469.12 BTC    GHash.IO    21.07
305459    24 minutes    432    46,996.86 BTC    BTC Guild    287.12
305458    33 minutes    128    101,239.74 BTC    Polmine    148.88

Obviously a few fast blocks is just from random odds.

Quote from: hellscabane on June 11, 2014, 12:44:57 PM

Quote from: eleuthria on June 10, 2014, 10:40:06 AM

6 blocks in 10 minutes has happened a few times before, just like 0 blocks in 60 minutes happens about once a month. 6 in 10 minutes is a bit rarer though.

Since DeathandTaxes did the math for the frequency of the OPs post, I couldn't help but do the comparison of this during one of my breaks at work. Hehe.

With ideal block propagation averages:

6 blocks in 10 minutes (i.e. P[X=6] for λ=1) once every ~13.6 days.
0 blocks in 60 minutes (i.e. P[X=0] for λ=6) once every ~16.8 days.

As a note the chances of 6 or more blocks in 10 minutes (i.e. 1-P[X<6] for λ=1) is once every ~11.6 days.

So it seems that 6 blocks in 10 minutes is a bit more common than no blocks in the expected time for 6 blocks.

So it is normal over twice (or even three times) a month?
Seeing the math is amazing thank you and DeathandTaxes for doing that.

ljudotina

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Yes, it all depends on how much hash is added to network in between diff changes. Steeper change, sooner it will get.

dserrano5

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It will be earlier, I was just pointing to the current estimation.

Magic8Ball

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Quote from: dserrano5 on June 11, 2014, 12:38:38 PM

Quote from: Bubbles06 on June 11, 2014, 11:57:29 AM

How far ahead of the block schedule is bitcoin overall? Is it adding up over time to put us significantly ahead of schedule? Block reward halving going to come sooner than predicted before?

If blocks were found exactly each 10 minutes, we'd be expecting a halving in January 2017, however we're more going into August 2016.

It may be even earlier.

I would not be surprised if it happened as early as in 2015.

Bubbles06

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Quote from: dserrano5 on June 11, 2014, 12:38:38 PM

Quote from: Bubbles06 on June 11, 2014, 11:57:29 AM

How far ahead of the block schedule is bitcoin overall? Is it adding up over time to put us significantly ahead of schedule? Block reward halving going to come sooner than predicted before?

If blocks were found exactly each 10 minutes, we'd be expecting a halving in January 2017, however we're more going into August 2016.

Quote from: ljudotina on June 11, 2014, 12:45:27 PM

Quote from: Bubbles06 on June 11, 2014, 11:57:29 AM

How far ahead of the block schedule is bitcoin overall? Is it adding up over time to put us significantly ahead of schedule? Block reward halving going to come sooner than predicted before?

http://bitcoinclock.com/

This will help you alot.

Thanks to both you.

boumalo

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Quote from: dserrano5 on June 11, 2014, 12:38:38 PM

Quote from: Bubbles06 on June 11, 2014, 11:57:29 AM

How far ahead of the block schedule is bitcoin overall? Is it adding up over time to put us significantly ahead of schedule? Block reward halving going to come sooner than predicted before?

If blocks were found exactly each 10 minutes, we'd be expecting a halving in January 2017, however we're more going into August 2016.

More or less depending on the hash rate change until then Wink

OROBTC

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...

ljudotina

Nice link! Thank you.

ljudotina

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Quote from: Bubbles06 on June 11, 2014, 11:57:29 AM

How far ahead of the block schedule is bitcoin overall? Is it adding up over time to put us significantly ahead of schedule? Block reward halving going to come sooner than predicted before?

http://bitcoinclock.com/

This will help you alot.

hellscabane

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Merit: 1000

Quote from: eleuthria on June 10, 2014, 10:40:06 AM

6 blocks in 10 minutes has happened a few times before, just like 0 blocks in 60 minutes happens about once a month. 6 in 10 minutes is a bit rarer though.

Since DeathandTaxes did the math for the frequency of the OPs post, I couldn't help but do the comparison of this during one of my breaks at work. Hehe.

With ideal block propagation averages:

6 blocks in 10 minutes (i.e. P[X=6] for λ=1) once every ~13.6 days.
0 blocks in 60 minutes (i.e. P[X=0] for λ=6) once every ~16.8 days.

As a note the chances of 6 or more blocks in 10 minutes (i.e. 1-P[X<6] for λ=1) is once every ~11.6 days.

So it seems that 6 blocks in 10 minutes is a bit more common than no blocks in the expected time for 6 blocks.

dserrano5

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Quote from: Bubbles06 on June 11, 2014, 11:57:29 AM

How far ahead of the block schedule is bitcoin overall? Is it adding up over time to put us significantly ahead of schedule? Block reward halving going to come sooner than predicted before?

If blocks were found exactly each 10 minutes, we'd be expecting a halving in January 2017, however we're more going into August 2016.

Bubbles06

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Activity: 66

Merit: 10

How far ahead of the block schedule is bitcoin overall? Is it adding up over time to put us significantly ahead of schedule? Block reward halving going to come sooner than predicted before?

ljudotina

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Quote from: Unluckyduck on June 11, 2014, 05:05:16 AM

It happens occasionally and it is probably due to GHASH.io's majority of the hash power (notice 4 out of the 6 are theirs).

No...it has NOTHING to do with where hash power is. On 1 pool or 1000 pools, it has absolutley no effect. Hash power is hash power. It's all about hash power and statistical luck. As some said before, it happened before, it will happen again. Sometimes you get rapid ones, sometimes you wait for 1 hour to get 1....pure and simple luck. Nothing more, nothing less.

BitsBitsBits

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Ghash is on steroids. Cheesy

Topic: Six blocks in 11 minutes! Bitcoin on steroids? (Read 2774 times)