Topic: Sleeping giant is awakening?? LTC back to $50 now ?? - page 5. (Read 12564 times)

 The supply of ALL current ASIC for cryptocoin mining is limited because the availability of FAB SPACE to make the chips is overloaded.

 As far as I know, there are STILL only 3 fabs in the world that can make the current 14/16nm parts:
 GlobalFounderies (largely tied up with work for AMD and IBM due to how GF came into existance and who it got it's founderies FROM and the contractual requirements from that history)
 TSMC (hello Samsung, NVidia, and other LARGE customers having high priority)
 Intel (which only makes parts for Intel internal use and is also likely running at or near capasity).


 It has been obvious for a while that Bitmain has been selling as many S9/R4/T9 units as it could get the chips for - and that they haven't been able to get enough chips for THOSE to satisfy the demand, despite the poor reliability of the S9.

 It seems likely that Bitfury has had delays in selling it's new chip to others at least in part to that same issue, and probably was using all of it's supply for internal deployment for months.

 BW.com probably put it's "sell miners" plans on hold due to having a hard time getting enough for IT'S internal usage.

 Caanan doesn't seem to sell enough Avalons to have had major shortage issues.



 No conspiracy theory needed, just examination of the facts regarding high demand vs low capasity SO FAR to make the new-node chips.



 It even seems to be affecting Baikal to a degree, despite them being on an older process node - though I suspect that the issue there is more that "we got hit by unexpected demand that cleaned us out overnight and there is ALWAYS lag time getting a new batch of chips ordered, delivered, and machines built from them" even on mature process nodes.
 Even mature node fabs tend to be booked ahead at least somewhat, especially if the node is less than 3 generations old (a lot of AMD and Intel support chipsets, perhaps ALL of them are STILL built on 28 or 32 nm 'cause it's a waste to make those on 14/16 or even 22).

 The older Scrypt ASICs were made because LiteCoin AT THE TIME was by far the second-highest valued currency, which made the market big enough that the ASIC makers were reasonably sure they could profit from making the ASICs.

 It says a lot about Litecoin (Scrypt) that it's the only coin OTHER THAN BITCOIN (SHA256) to have had multiple years and multiple generations of competition in ASIC-based miners.


 I don't see SegWit having a significant impact on Litecoin. I also suspect it's going to settle back into it's long-term $3.50-$4.50 range quickly after the Bitcoin "potential fork" issues get resolved - and I figure that resolution will also hammer current inflated pricing on most of the altcoins that have seen big rises the past month.

Did F2Pool just signal SegWit on Litecoin.

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If I were a whale I'd pay me to STFU.

F2Pool just signaled and LTC exploded from $6.4 to $7.5 on huge volume. This will put segwit at 55-60%. This will leave two more main pools needing to activate to get there. My guess is the whales will form new bases and pump before each subsequent pool activating.

I think LTC has a new base at $6+ now. This sets it up for another pump to $10 (which will be the highest price it has been since the 2013 bubble), and then either BW or Batpool flipping the switch putting us on the brink of segwit. The FOMO will get unbelievable when we are sitting at 70-71%.

It looks like f2pool is doing something... If this news is true, this may be a good thing for Litecoin: https://www.reddit.com/r/litecoin/comments/62nuwq/f2pool_just_signalled_for_segwit/

PoW is only immutable on the master blockchain. The lesser altcoins can be manipulated by arbitrage employing the fulcrum of the master Bitcoin. Litecoin appears to ready to lose its immutability and adopt SegWit because the miners and whales (who are the same in both BTC and LTC btw) are able to take advantage of the ability to dominate a lesser market cap with a greater one. This creates a game theory opportunity where the previously manipulation of LTC to force it to be undervalued will now be reversed so that there will be scarcity of mining supply thus motivating miners to vote for activating SegWit to maintain the ramp up in the price.

Click and read these for details:

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.18399606
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.18405746


That is exactly what I was thinking because the tail doesn't wag the dog. Thus the high finance in Bitcoin (think of MPEx at its peak) will remain the master of the slave "sidechains". Note the Blockstrream Sidechains concept is insolubly insecure (find my discussion with @ArticMine about that), so the altcoins will be the "sidechains".

Thus the BTC whales (or dolphins) who also move early into LTC (in order to increase their share of the crypto ecosystem) are not doing harm to Bitcoin. They are making Bitcoin stronger by alleviating the mismatch of immutability to Blockstream's plan to get versioned softforking into the protocol (hidden in the SegWit change), which would upset the balance-of-power that Satoshi designed.

Better to put that level of protocol mutability into an altcoin, so the stalemate Nash equilibrium game theory of master ideal money (i.e. Bitcoin) isn't threatened. Alleviating that threat enables the entire crypto market to move forward so we get on with the adoption and upward prices.

So that is why I am not selling LTC now, unless something comes along to indicate that my hypothesis was incorrect.

So I see prices ahead:

BTC: $2000+
LTC: $40+
ETH: $150+
XMR: $40+ (after a dip back < $15)

(Apologies I don't yet think in terms of a BTC unit-of-account)

Charlie seems to be jealous of that too because Decred is another variant of that dogshit.

I am still sticking with my hypothesis, but seriously someone needs to shout out to Charlie to stop ruining his reputation:


Click that to read the gory (math, economics, and game theory) details.

The way I see it, if a coin with a 27% instamine within 48 hours of release, two name changes and a reduction in max supply can reach $100....

Then LiteCoin with its fair mining, historic high of $48, and widely distributed holder base should be able to reach up pretty high.

LiteCoin is the 2nd most known cryptocurrency to BitCoin even by people who don't hold either.

It remains to be seen, ultimately it will take whales with faith.

Not selling under 50 $

I really believe SegWit / Lightning on LTC makes a ton of sense!

The exciting thing with this idea, is that unlike with the BTC stalemate, the various parties (Miners, Whales, and even Blockstream) involved in LTC may have aligning goals!

Miners - As iamnotback points out, a huge bump in price/volume combined with tight supply of ASICS makes this very profitable for them

Whales - just like with BTC whales, they want SegWit because it's going to allow greater adoption, therefore higher prices

Blockstream - If they can't get Lightning on BTC and LTC comes along, do you think they won't move elsewhere to remain relevant? There is a lot of investment in Blockstream, etc. and I doubt they want it completely wasted on a BTC stalemate.

Seems like a win/win for everyone. Maybe not so much for BTC in one sense, however, in the end I think it clears the way for BTC to continue on as the ultimate store of value crypto.

He he, that is funny. Oh wait you’re serious? I guess everybody’s entitled to their own opinion.

I’ll stick to LiteCoin as a backup coin. It’s really due for a pump.

In what grounds LTC would go all the way up to $50? I think that all features that were new when it was launched now other altcoins have done better. I'm not saying that it is worthless, but I also believe that the rising in the price has to be a reason behind it. I can be portfolio diversification (an investor trying to reduce his risk), or whatever, but we have to find a strong reason to endorse a rise to the $50 level.

Sold half of my LTC at 72 because I was expecting a correction. Let's see if it stabilizes at 50-60 to get ready for further pumps or else we'll see the good ol slow motion post pump stagnation till next pump. I'll hold, we are coming from all time lows, it would be sad if it goes even lower and I think there are good chances it will not so I guess it's safe to hold and see what happens.

So the new (higher efficiency) ASICs supply is limited. Exactly fits my hypothesis! By raising the price to a new level with SegWit activation, they will maximize their revenue if they have quietly locked up all the coming supply of new ASICs.

Are you claiming the SegWit activation isn't coming?

You see by getting all these miners hooked into an investment where they need higher prices, then they need to activate SegWit. It is a very clever strategy.

Happy to see you made a move.

Fundamentals are such that we should be going back to $30+ at least (of course nothing is guaranteed, make your own choices). Hang on tight.

It could get volatile so don't set a stop loss too high unless you want to get stopped out too soon. Don't trade unless you are good at trading.

You will understand how good the relative fundamentals of LTC are when you read my upcoming scathing analysis of Decred and PIVX.

There really isn't much in the way of quality altcoins with valuable attributes other than a handful including LTC, ETH, XMR (but in my opinion of the chart, XMR needs to go down to $15 first).

Waited for the dip, dip happened, got in at 67, now 76, good money so far.  For how long will you hold? It's yet to be seen if we can pass the 80 top.

Regardin miners.. I remember reading some miner claiming how they had enough millions in mining power to attack bitcoin regardless if they changed to scrypt, X11 or any other algo. Not sure if bluffing or serious.

It would also tie in with the threat to change from Bitcoin's PoW while having a viable system in place. Litecoin isn't quite a drop-in replacement for Bitcoin, but at least the change wouldn't be as painful as with others.

As a longtime Scrypt miner, I'm happy with Litecoin just breaking out of it's long-time $4 more or less range on the high side. Profitability well over doubled for me today. 8-)


 I just hope it stays above $6 for a while - it took a month or two to drop out of the $5 range when it spiked last year.




 Doge was never intended to be a real coin - devs stated from very early on it was intended as a joke, just that it's meme caught on for a while.
 Doge is nothing but junk now, ever since they decided to allow it to be merge mined it's had NO future on it's own.