small home mining, the future? - page 2.

philipma1957

legendary

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'The right to privacy matters'

Quote from: soy on March 21, 2015, 01:54:47 PM

Then you're back to equipment availability. If manufacturing runs are pre-sold to large farms at a discount avoiding the overhead of dealing with the public, that's what's going to happen. Look at US industry - how many products are produced to be sold to industry and NOT to the public. That's not because the public will do harm with the product but that the public is expensive to deal with.

BTC will not work with 6-8 worldwide super farms and 2-4 builders of asics. Note the bolding on the word "and".

Like it or not the network needs some grease to work so the big guys need grease and little home miners serve as the grease for the network.

Safety valve .
Circuit breaker.
Safety net.
whatever words you want to use.

soy

legendary

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Merit: 1013

Then you're back to equipment availability. If manufacturing runs are pre-sold to large farms at a discount avoiding the overhead of dealing with the public, that's what's going to happen. Look at US industry - how many products are produced to be sold to industry and NOT to the public. That's not because the public will do harm with the product but that the public is expensive to deal with.

philipma1957

legendary

Activity: 4256

Merit: 8551

'The right to privacy matters'

Well for the home miner the best innovation is big range watt per gh gear.

A s-5 is almost flat at .51 watts per gh

a sp20 is .47 to .6 watts per gh

an avalon 4.1 is .43 to .7 watts per gh.

if a .3 watt to .6 watt per gh miner comes out it lets your miner earn longer.

if a .20 watt to .55 watt per gh miner comes out even better.

Just think if your s-5 was not locked at .51 watts we know it can really go up to .55 and down to .35 if it had been sold this way it would have longer life.

It could even weather the summer clocked low to .35 then bump up to .55 for cold weather.

I would love to see gear that can really dial down and up the watt/gh scale.

soy

legendary

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Merit: 1013

Well if you want to get onto the banks wanting bitcoin dead so their expensive bank transfers are again the way to transfer money.... Banks want bitcoin dead or at least as unpopular as media can make it without seeming obvious.

Was the rise in large Bitcoin mining farms expected? Those farms were/are expensive. That they dump their minings to pay off costs would be expected. That it looks like that action over time drove the value of Bitcoins down might have been unexpected. Certainly unexpected for those who paid cash for Bitcoins and held on hoping that their scarcity would drive up the price who now own Bitcoins worth only a small fraction of their original cost.

The one positive aspect of Bitcoin value down to mining operating costs and loan payoff is that the value fall has leveled off. Will this kill a hoped for spring rise into summer? Don't know.

The large farms realize that the halving early next year means that paying off a new miner this year, after electric, means one must get it up and running ASAP. A spring rise in Bitcoin value into summer would temp home enthusiasts to buy one last time. So, maybe that would provoke low Bitcoin value thru to summer.

Biodom

legendary

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try to imagine yourself in November of 2011 and apply the same logic, considering that price was low, halving was coming, miners were unprofitable, bitcoin was in the downtrend. How did that situation predicted the next 24 mo with bitcoin going from $2 to $1160? It didn't. I am not saying that we will have the same spurt, just that it is not really predictable.

I would agree with you that it seems that in bitcoin soup some ingredient is currently missing and it is getting a bit boring lately, unfortunately.
All news are either about someone stealing bitcoin or about regulation.

soy

legendary

Activity: 1428

Merit: 1013

So, where are we. Home mining is only marginally profitable. Small business owners running miners at work are only robbing Peter to pay Paul and it will probably become noticeable eventually. But the large farms must pay rent and wages that the home miner doesn't - even if the large farms get their mining gear cheaper. And that Novec ain't cheap.

Payout halves next year. We've seen that as GH/s/$ decrease, the value of Bitcoin correspondingly decrease. An optimist might project that when payout halves the value of Bitcoin will double.

But the large farms dump inefficient mining gear and buy huge lots of the most efficient. Meanwhile for the home miner, getting the most efficient miners at a reasonable price is now met with delays or unavailability.

I'm expecting that next year when the payout halves, the competition between the large farms for a bigger share of the pie will intensify. They will have no real incentive to see an effective doubling of Bitcoin value to match the halved payout. Instead the best will work to drive the Bitcoin value down expecting large marginally profitable farms to quit.

So, home mining will continue until home heating isn't needed in the spring and remain off until it gets cold. That or lose money.

I could be wrong.

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