Topic: Smart to sell at a loss in anticipation? - page 2. (Read 2548 times)

It's very tempting and very risky. If a dip that size were to happen, you could increase your holdings for free. If the dip doesn't happen, you will regret it for years. I will be looking for ways to save a bunch of fiat offline in anticipation of another big drop. What do you own besides BTC that could be sold at fair value? An extra car or something? Look at the 15m graph for BTC/CNY on OKcoin. The volume is gone. All the panic selling is over. You would need some kind of assurance that Chinese MSM will do a major story about the confirmed ban of BTC in China, no questions, just a solid NO from the Chinese PTB. I'm disappointed in my own timing because I sold all my LTC at 16.9 and bought back at 16.3, just a few hours before the red waterfall to 12.3 (FML).  Right now, predicting which way it will go seems harder than ever. The short term seems oddly stable at 500, so I wouldn't risk it.

We are at the bottom.  It might dip to 450 or even 400, but I doubt much less.  2x last previous ATH is how it has normally stabilized and then it pops after a while to a new ATH.  I give it 8 months or so hit a new ATH.  

this is very reassuring

True, there is a whole bunch of good news all over the place.

As rational as this sounds, I would suggest that there is a clear bear pennant being formed on the Bitcoin chart, although the OP certainly has a dilemma on his hands. 9/10 times, when I have made a bum trade and covered my losses, Bitcoin has always at some point in the future provided an opportunity that would have allowed me to either break even or indeed take a large profit. However, the longer Bitcoin trends along in this sub $530 range, on low volume, the more likely that when the volume picks up again, it is going to be of the sell-off variety, especially considering the China situation where there are still clearly many trading in CNY who for some reason don't feel threatened by the rumours of the PBOCs 15th April stance on CNY exchanges, yet!

TA 101 is pointing to more downside after this bear flag/pennant completes.

The fundamentals are looking scary with the PBOC rumours.

Anyone who is feeling bullish right now is relying on some kind of X-Factor, such as in early March when some seemingly lone investor turned up on Bitstamp with tens of millions USD at his disposal and started placing 3K Bid orders right at the spot price resulting in an avalanche of panic buying. If I was the OP, I would be watching the markets like a hawk right now, especially Huobi where any great sell off pressure is likely to occur first. I would be watching closely for Bitcoin to test the $530-$550 range. If it can break beyond here then he might be able to get out with even money. If it gets up to this range, or anywhere below this and behaves decidedly weak, or is met with huge selling pressure, then he may want to consider cutting his losses around here. If we break below $460, then this sucker is going to go down fkn hard and will very likely break below $380-$400, which would of course make the whole Dec 2013 - April 2014 period into one giant descending bear triangle, with a floor being formed in $380 - $400 range, and subesequently broken! In such a situation, the basement really would be the limit for Bitcoin.

Bounces are common in this realm. I wouldn't try selling in an attempt to regain losses. Although, if the price does dip as low as you anticipate, it gives a reason to buy more. And in the case that it does balance off at $500 after that dip, your losses would be balanced. (Assuming you both bought an equal amount at $400 and $600.)

Probably would not advise you to sell now. But I did sell above 500 as it was clearly struggling there.

If there is a bounce up next week and goes close to 600 then you can sell.

Might be too late now but you could look at shorting with your BTC as collateral. Essentially that'd freeze your $$ position should it turn and hit > what you shorted while gaining the upside of cash if it continues going down. I've followed this strategy a few times when it seems unsettled, sure when it's gone up I've lost a few dollars but when it's gone down I've gained. Set tight stop losses!

It is always gamble waiting for higher or lower price, so whatever you do, gamble responsible

Of course its good if you can sell high and buy low.
but often we see people deciding to sell when the market has already reacted and their short strategy turns into sell low and buy high.

nevertheless you should decide yourself and not listen to anybody. nobody can tell you what happens next.

sell it, you will profit

Make your decision based on how much worth this money is to you. In what order can you afford it to lose? I bought 3.2btc with money I probably need the next few month. So I sold 1.5 with a little loss. This is the right decision. I knew the risk and followed a plan.


So you think without China the price would have been 250$ until now? All the news about Bitcoin in the western world would have not mattered?
-> This is stupid. There were 12 months and there was development in the Bitcoin space which affected the price.

Not a good time at all, from a day traders point of view. the panic sellers have just been, now it's up or sideways for some time. think about it.

Too risky. Many people got burned doing so. HOLD and buy more while it drops - is the best strategy.

Well that does seem about right if China is taken out feel like theres still a gain range though

Sell now, if you can. Short- to mid-term, BTC price will slide down to $250, pre-Chinese buying frenzy of Nov-Dec'2013.

Very small chance imo. Has there been any confirmation of the chinese situation?

What if it doesnt?

Thats what im saying, if it will almost certainly go down, why not sell now and buy back cheaper?

This. The market will almost certainly continue going down in the short-medium term, but eventually it will go back up.