His best move now would be to hire someone that knows what they are doing.
This is pretty much nonsense. The only way to establish that someone KNEW what they were doing with games is in the retrospective. Same as movies and everything else in the line.
I'm interested in learning the subtleties in the distinction between Mircea's known position that a person's capability is measured by the successes they have demonstrated, and how that seemingly conflicts with your statement.
Yes, things change and past success does not guarantee future success, but it helps to be experienced, no?
Or do you feel that the true measure in demonstrating success is tied to agility/adaptability in a string of successes?
I do think the more entrenched you become in a school of thought, the more likely you are to have those with more perspective eat your lunch, but where is the line here?
Well, I have no idea where the line is. MP makes the calls as to the future, apparently history goes into it but I'm pretty sure it's not the whole story. Perhaps the confusion comes from your mixing professional stuff (such as for instance being a banker) with creative stuff. Willy nilly creative stuff is a hit and miss affair, there's no escaping that.
Otherwise it certainly helps to be experienced. It's just the experienced are never the dorks declaring that on some lolforum. Compare
noob MP with the string of noobs on parade here, hi I'm X doing Y vs anon nobody doing nothing. Not a very hard call to make in the end.
That's a vaguely more sensible post.
Creative stuff is professional though. The creative element in a game varies from quite a bit to very small indeed.
The vast majority of people in the game dev world are engineers or artists. The artwork is creative in a way obviously, but it's usually little different to working on The Simpsons or whatever. It takes talent and effort but you're a cog in a machine, and there is no shortage of good artists.
In both of the above cases you're looking for experience every single time. Within the indie world, many people are surprisingly experienced and amazingly talented. Often there is a mix, and often there has been a lot of tutoring going on. In almost every case, advice is given by other indies to help out on a lot of areas that you simply can't know about without having experience.
I also wouldn't describe creative stuff as willy nilly. That indicates you don't understand the nature of creativity or how it applies to game development.
In your second paragraph you say 'the experienced are never the dorks declaring that on some lolforum'. Actually you're very wrong. I, and many other game developers, well known and otherwise, are on a number of forums.
Being obnoxious when you don't know who people are, let alone when some of us are not anonymous, is very poor business sense. That is how people will see you, gamers, and professional developers.
I may have been on the fence over the fund if it wasn't for your attitude, but if anyone asked me now whether to work for MP I'd say no way and point them here. It makes the fund wreak of lack of professionalism. Don't you see that?