Topic: Smoothie's take on price and people's emotions related to price (Read 1052 times)

The thread still exists. And I will be the first to admit that I was wrong in my prediction.

Just because I made a thread saying my prediction doesn't make me guilty of anything other than giving my own opinion of a future prediction. My predictions have always been for fun as well as not financial advice for anyone to follow.

Everytime I get asked a "should I buy now or sell now questions" I never answer them but say for them to make their own decisions.

Your comment about price and when someone bought in is a good point. But let's not forget that no one is to blame for when someone buys in. If they did not do their research it isn't anyone's fault but their own and for their own reasons (good or not).

I will repeat this again, just because I make a price prediction or thread saying what I think will happen doesn't mean people need to buy or sell coins at a certain price. Let's all take responsibility for our own actions and not point fingers at say me for someone buying bitcoin at $1000 price just because I made a thread on a public forum.

Yes do not trust me. I don't expect anyone to trust me and in fact when I sold my physical coins I've always told people if you do not trust me then do not buy them. Simple. Just like I don't make people buy my physical coins. They choose to.

Call me a snake oil salesman, but I wasn't selling digital LTC or BTC to you directly or anyone really for that matter so I'm not sure what you are talking about as far as being a snake oil salesman. Nice try, but it doesnt work here buddy.

A sales man actually sells something as well as tries to convince people to buy into something and if I put my two cents on what I think will happen, people still (as you already said it) have their own mind to make up.

Even my own family who has asked me about when to buy bitcoin/litecoin and how much. I've told them..."you decide".

Trust no one! Make your own decisions.

And Trust Saddam™

Hmm, what happened to your $5k/btc by the New year prediction Smoothie? While you do make some valid points, you were on the forefront of the bitcoin pumping crowd, making outlandish predictions when it was clear to some that bitcoin was massively overvalued. The later investors had to pour a significantly larger amount of fiat into btc if they expected substantial profits, so naturally, they will feel more emotionally attached to their investment. Someone who invested $1000 into btc when it was worth $1, is not the same as someone who invested $100,000 when btc was at $1000 each.

You did a great job pumping BTC, and LTC especially, and now you're laughing all the way to the bank, whilst placing blame upon those whom you helped dupe into purchasing overpriced BTC with outlandish predictions. Of course, they made their own choice to buy at those prices and are responsible for their own actions, just like the people who decided to run off to Jonestown and join Jim Jones.

The moral of the story is, don't trust anyone in the world of crypto, especially not snake oil salesmen like Rpietila or those Winkle guys.

I like watching the infrastructure grow...and the self-weeding of scams like paycoin and cloud mining.

Growing pains for sure.

This is the 4th or 5th time I've seen what I would call "capitulation" and despair in the markets.

The fall hasnt had that much of an affect on me either. The price rise was nice and all but for me it was seeing the practical functions of bit coin that excited me.

Yes I agree with the bold. Not everyone has a price. Some want to trade for goods, assets, or services when it gets to a certain point in the future.

A+ thread, would read again.

But in all seriousness, I have to disagree w/ the assertion that we all have a "price point" where we will sell. Frankly, I don't. I will hold BTC until I spend them all. That means either retailers will accept them and I'll pay for goods/services with BTC, or this experiment will fail and I'll have traded some limited amount of my earnings for experience and education. After all, at $10k/BTC, why exchange BTC for USD when you can easily purchase USD10k worth of goods/services with your BTC? That's the end game.

Everyone will admit that they do not like to see their assets lose value. Frankly, if I had never seen a profit, I would be perfectly content and very happy to participate and help the ecosystem grow. As my assets lose value, I move closer toward breaking even, and ultimately I begin to see losses. I know it'll rebound, with time, so I have no urge to sell my holdings. Breaking even + bitcoin's long term success = perfect scenario. Anything else is a perk of taking risks as an early adopter.

Not totally certain, but I felt like I'd lived through it and knew what to expect to some degree.

Sadly, it was an exponential version of the 260 rise, including the lingering falling price...but on the up side we could be starting the next rally any day now.

During the first rise, it was the first time I had ever bought anything that gained value rapidly after acquiring it, so I think I was more emotionally involved
because I had skin in the game, and it was like I had picked a winning horse and got to watch it lap all the others.  That got me very excited.  The fall didn't
have nearly the effect of the rise on my psyche, as I had faith that the system was just going through growing pains, as I do now.

We are all speculators in one way or another but it is the removing of the emotion that changes the view point of one individual vs another.

Once again if you speculate with the right mindset and attitude you will do well. Attaching emotion to investments is due to investing with the wrong mindset (for example doing it for a quick profit or investing what you can't afford to lose).

I agree, but that means people that are investing for the right reasons to get there.

If bitcoin has utility as we both agree it does, then eventually the need for its functions will naturally be demanded by the main stream market.

Making sure the foundation of bitcoin is laid ...the money will follow...people should focus on the developmental aspects more than price.

Yes - +/- 2% pa would be great - its the 90%+/- volatility in the interim period that will be a little difficult for some to stomach. Because we are all speculators.




That is the question.

No point pegging the value against (for eg) Gold - you just end up where you started.

I don't know the answer.

The best thing about bitcoin is freedom. You are in control of your own money.

When I first bought BTC in 2012, I was completely shut out of the banks due to some financial indiscretion of my youth. Even though I was employed, no bank or credit union would let me open any type of account because I was on a blacklist.

I learned how to use BTC because I didn't want to just have a bunch of cash sitting around. I would never have to worry about my funds being seized or stolen if I used the best practices. The price was relatively stable around $10, I figured at best it would turn a small profit or simply retain the same value.

In order to recover, we need the community to rediscover the fundamental strengths of bitcoin and value it for those reasons, not to become rich.

Well, here's some food for thought:

We expect the world's populous to someday use bitcoin daily as both a transactional currency and a store of value, when its exchange rate is $50K/btc and its volatility is something like +/- 2% per year (so the theory goes).

But how else are we going to get there, without price increasing though greater demand?  And without retail investors going through all the pain?

We can't just sit back and rely on early adopters, deep pocket whale investors, exchange owners, $100M/year funded infrastructure companies, Wall Street, ETFs and big banks getting us there.  Otherwise they just become our new overlords in the future (just like the Diamond miners who control 90% of all the diamonds in the world, and national governments buying up all the available gold, letting us buy the scraps at $1300/ounce).

Well said Smoothie. There is a lot of emotion in the bitcoin economy and it does not come from the code.  

Why did you feel jaded during the 1200 rise?

When Linus Torvalds first made Linux, it was text based and required it's own language.  Now we have ubuntu usb sticks and smart phones running on shells influenced by linux source code.

I like the idea that we've built an airplane, it works, but the commercial airliners and airports don't yet exist.

I noticed I had a lot of emotional attachment to the price during the rise to 260, but I felt almost jaded during the rise to 1200.

At this point though, seeing Litecoin at damn near the prices I started trading it at over a year ago makes me feel like dancing...and buying.

You have some good points.

I would say yes almost everyone has a price they would sell at. Some prefer to not sell and just trade for goods and services despite price.

I didn't get into bit coin because I wanted to be rich. The technology interested me so much I was willing to invest in mining equipment in 2011 to go down that rabbit hole to understand bitcoin. Yes there was profit to be made but that wasn't the reason.

So to recap I invested in silver to preserve wealth.

I invested in bitcoin to see how far the rabbit hole goes.

I'd say the education of learning how an alternative payment system works and can work in society form its core is more important than profit in fiat terms.

When I first purchased BTC around 18 months back (around 6 months later than I should have but for procrastinating) my initial concern/question was "How much of the price I am paying is artificially inflated through speculation ?" - I would have preferred to buy at a price point that reflected BTC's value based on its current utility, rather than an inflated price based on wealthy (and manipulative) speculators.

  Anyhow - I bought anyway - I didn't want to miss the boat etc etc.

 It now seems that BTC is being divested of manipulative, make a buck on the back of it, speculators and it is approaching its true utility based value. Time to buy I reckon  


    Only problem is, as far as BTC's future is concerned, is that it seems to me that in the final analysis we are all speculators - I mean, who amongst us, even the most ideological blockchain zealot, doesn't have a pricepoint at which they are going to sell ? 1000$ ?  10,000$ ?

    This to me presents a problem for bitcoin because it means that volatility is systematic/inherent - and people much prefer stability. Or the appearence of it at least - an illusion that fiat conjures admirably, and which is far from stable.


   Not to worry - not long before the next speculative pump - price rising, everyone here happy and all is well and good.

   Isn't it ?


  

    


      

You want to buy bitcoins because you still can buy them.

I am a child of the internet, that is why i am investing in the cash of the internet.