Snapchat first investor thinks bitcoin could realistically be worth $500,000 - page 3.

iamnotback

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Quote from: AngryDwarf on April 11, 2017, 04:26:26 AM

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Quote from: Carlsen on April 11, 2017, 04:14:47 AM

Re: Snapchat first investor thinks bitcoin could realistically be worth $500,000

I have read the article, unfortunatelly I do not agree to their theory.
400 million people using bitcoin in the year 2030 seems very unlikely to me.
I an sure bitcoin will grow, but not in such a magintude.

They don't have to actually be using Bitcoin. They can be using any service for which BTC is the reserve currency that the whales of that services settle their commerce in BTC.

This is why scaling doesn't need to be on Bitcoin in order for Bitcoin to benefit.

The maximum transaction rate is still too low for an effective commercial settlement system. It can't handle SWIFT traffic levels for example, and that is just for settlement between financial institutions. Then its status as a reserve cryptocurrency becomes under threat.

SWIFT is not restricted to power brokers. SWIFT allows any Joe Blow to wire $1000.

Bitcoin's block size is more than sufficient.

The entire point is to keep the riff-raff off of Bitcoin, so it doesn't need to be regulated. And isn't constantly assailed with such nonsense as UASF.

AngryDwarf

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Quote from: Carlsen on April 11, 2017, 04:14:47 AM

Re: Snapchat first investor thinks bitcoin could realistically be worth $500,000

I have read the article, unfortunatelly I do not agree to their theory.
400 million people using bitcoin in the year 2030 seems very unlikely to me.
I an sure bitcoin will grow, but not in such a magintude.

They don't have to actually be using Bitcoin. They can be using any service for which BTC is the reserve currency that the whales of that services settle their commerce in BTC.

This is why scaling doesn't need to be on Bitcoin in order for Bitcoin to benefit.

The maximum transaction rate is still too low for an effective commercial settlement system. It can't handle SWIFT traffic levels for example, and that is just for settlement between financial institutions. Then its status as a reserve cryptocurrency becomes under threat.

Carlsen

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I have read the article, unfortunatelly I do not agree to their theory.
400 million people using bitcoin in the year 2030 seems very unlikely to me.
I an sure bitcoin will grow, but not in such a magintude.

buwaytress

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Quote from: NeuroticFish on April 11, 2017, 03:28:16 AM

When Bitcoin was $250, there were stories about "it will reach $10k".
Now Bitcoin is $1200 and the new stories tell about $500k.

There's no doubt that Bitcoin deserves a high valuation.
There's no doubt the price has a great chance to be higher after some years.
But I somehow have a feeling that some people feed us with dreams and hopes to keep their businesses running.

2030 is pretty far away. Especially in technology, which is known to advance exponentially. There's a chance for $10k, there's a chance for $500k, but there's also a chance for $100 or $1.

Well said, Neurotic. There's 100% a chance for Bitcoin to reach $500,000 in 2030, as much as there is 100% chance a chance for it to reach 0$. But no one can say there's a 100% chance for any price, especially that far away in the future. How many people have predicted the moon? As many who have predicted its death.

Let's not take those dreams and hopes simply because we're being fed.

NeuroticFish

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Quote from: OmegaStarScream on April 10, 2017, 01:50:26 AM

According to Jeremy Liew, the first investor in Snapchat, and Blockchain CEO and cofounder Peter Smith. In a presentation sent to Business Insider, the duo laid out their case for why it's reasonable for bitcoin to explode to $500,000 by 2030.

When Bitcoin was $250, there were stories about "it will reach $10k".
Now Bitcoin is $1200 and the new stories tell about $500k.

There's no doubt that Bitcoin deserves a high valuation.
There's no doubt the price has a great chance to be higher after some years.
But I somehow have a feeling that some people feed us with dreams and hopes to keep their businesses running.

2030 is pretty far away. Especially in technology, which is known to advance exponentially. There's a chance for $10k, there's a chance for $500k, but there's also a chance for $100 or $1.

jubalix

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Quote from: Rinder on April 10, 2017, 03:07:19 PM

Sure the last 8 years has been amazing to bitcoin, and bubbles had damaged a lot in the begining, nowadays the value is much more stable and has a better support, but prediting bitcoin at 500k dollars its insane, since the more cost bitcoin becomes it loose more and more investors, people wont be able to keep buying forever bitcoin with a price always increasing. At 2020 the bitcoin value should be around 1100-1300 dollars, and we are already into those, soo at those period maybe 2000 dollars can be achieved, but this is all speculation, otherwise all people would make huge loans just to get inside bitcoin.

but people may rationally do that.

Take huge loan, can not pay/choose not to pay off put still have the BTC. Especially if lending institutions cti irresponsibly

Amph

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Quote from: Sadlife on April 10, 2017, 09:17:28 PM

With the current chinese mining mafia ?
I think it's not possible unless we get rid of these chinese miner mafia.
And we can safely say that Bitcoin will reach $500000 in 2030.

chinese mafia or not, they have all the intent to see bitcoin with a very high value, why they should hinder this? it doesn't make sense

in fact they are desperetely find the fastest solution to scale, like BU and they are tired of consensus mechanics which require too much time and is hampering bitcoin adoption

what you see with antpool is an attempt to move on the next step, even if it is done in the wrong way

ebliever

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Quote from: Dorky on April 10, 2017, 09:35:44 PM

Quote from: mr.mister on April 10, 2017, 09:23:53 PM

It is estimated that by 2030, according to the article, and probably the bitcoin clock as well, that, there will only be 20 million (not 21 million) bitcoin in circulation minus the ones that are lost (locked in the blockchain). Your numbers are off, and also don't account for supply and demand.

I tried to be as conservative as possible, thus I don't use the 20 mil figure.

Can you specify precisely what kind of supply and demand, and how such supply and demand will determine the price of bitcoin?

No, I don't think supply and demand from the exchanges will determine the price of bitcoin once it is tied to global trades.

If you are sincere, why don't you make your own estimation?

Edit:
No, my numbers are not off. Just because you don't like what you see does not make it off.

You present a use case (global trade) different from the one the OP assumes, so your numbers are a little different. But I agree your math is fine. Each is plausible if bitcoin remains successful and resolves obstacles to reaching those goals over the next 13 years.

My own guess is that bitcoin is more likely to be a digital gold than a commercial currency, because other altcoins are already far ahead in developing characteristics needed for that role. Zcash is probably the furthest along with inherent privacy capability and auditability, both critical for commercial use. With all attention/focus on the blocksize/SW debate, I can't see Bitcoin devs having the energy or consensus to do anything dramatic in those areas for years to come, by which point it would be too late anyway.

No crypto can be all things to all people. Bitcoin must find its niche and optimize for it. There is still a huge amount of room for growth as digital gold, at any rate.

The Sceptical Chymist

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Back in 1999, there was one big-name dude who was predicting an imminent explosion of the Dow to 36,000. It's very easy to predict a huge money shot when everyone is horny--but that doesn't mean we all need to break out the Kleenex yet.

What I'm saying is that this guy could be right, but overoptimistic projections aren't exactly in short supply and they can't all be right. I'm not holding my breath or my zipper on this one.

Dorky

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Quote from: mr.mister on April 10, 2017, 09:23:53 PM

It is estimated that by 2030, according to the article, and probably the bitcoin clock as well, that, there will only be 20 million (not 21 million) bitcoin in circulation minus the ones that are lost (locked in the blockchain). Your numbers are off, and also don't account for supply and demand.

I tried to be as conservative as possible, thus I don't use the 20 mil figure.

Can you specify precisely what kind of supply and demand, and how such supply and demand will determine the price of bitcoin?

No, I don't think supply and demand from the exchanges will determine the price of bitcoin once it is tied to global trades.

If you are sincere, why don't you make your own estimation?

Edit:
No, my numbers are not off. Just because you don't like what you see does not make it off.

rajasumi3

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No it wont be valued so much .even if it valued so much it will take more than 80 years to reach that value and dont expect that we are gonna live so much long enough .
At the end of the year we should be focused for 2000$ and it will be a big leap for bitcoins.

mr.mister

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Quote from: Dorky on April 10, 2017, 09:08:45 PM

In my conservative estimation, if bitcoin was to be a world reserve currency to facilitate global trades, then by right today's price of bitcoin would be...

1. Say we use a conservative value of global trade back in 2009 (when stock market collapsed), which was around 12 trillion.
2. Say we use a money velocity (don't forget this) of 2.5.
3. 12 trillion / 2.5 to get the money supply of 4.8 trillion.
4. 21 million bitcoin means each will need to be around 228,571 today to facilitate global trades.

It is estimated that by 2030, according to the article, and probably the bitcoin clock as well, that, there will only be 20 million (not 21 million) bitcoin in circulation minus the ones that are lost (locked in the blockchain). Your numbers are off, and also don't account for supply and demand.

Sadlife

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With the current chinese mining mafia ?
I think it's not possible unless we get rid of these chinese miner mafia.
And we can safely say that Bitcoin will reach $500000 in 2030.

iamTom123

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Quote from: DoublerHunter on April 10, 2017, 06:29:28 AM

This is one of the proof that many people believed in bitcoin rather than other cryptocurrency in the world. This prediction may happen if bitcoin will just be accepted in the whole world and if the billionaires will invest in bitcoin and buy a lot of them. No doubt that bitcoin will start to climb up that price and prove that they are serious in bitcoin.

Well, yes it can be possible but am sure that along the way there would be many hurdles that the Bitcoin community has to successfully pass with flying colors. If the whole Bitcoin community or stakeholders can get their acts together then there is a big possibility that one day Bitcoin can reached the said 500K level. Anyway, this is just another nice story or rather a way to get some attention from the many Bitcoin enthusiasts and whether the prediction can come true remains to be seen but I would really be happy if Bitcoin can be so valuable from what it is now.

Dorky

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In my conservative estimation, if bitcoin was to be a world reserve currency to facilitate global trades, then by right today's price of bitcoin would be...

1. Say we use a conservative value of global trade back in 2009 (when stock market collapsed), which was around 12 trillion.
2. Say we use a money velocity (don't forget this) of 2.5.
3. 12 trillion / 2.5 to get the money supply of 4.8 trillion.
4. 21 million bitcoin means each will need to be around 228,571 today to facilitate global trades.

mr.mister

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Quote from: FlightyPouch on April 10, 2017, 08:57:32 PM

That is 499 000 more than the current price of bitcoin in just 13 years?! That is insane, how can bitcoin price goes up like that? Maybe I will be believeing that users blow up really, here in our place, bitcoin user starts in 3 persons and start to flurish after 3 weeks and became 10 now. Yes it is kust a little number, but if many plaves are dling the same, then it is not possible to reach a 6.5 million users. I will just continue to use bitcpin and see what will happen.

It appears that a lot of you are commenting without having fully read the article. He shows you the math, as to how he arrives at $500,000. Is it guaranteed? Of course not. Is it possible? Of course it is.

FlightyPouch

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That is 499 000 more than the current price of bitcoin in just 13 years?! That is insane, how can bitcoin price goes up like that? Maybe I will be believeing that users blow up really, here in our place, bitcoin user starts in 3 persons and start to flurish after 3 weeks and became 10 now. Yes it is kust a little number, but if many plaves are dling the same, then it is not possible to reach a 6.5 million users. I will just continue to use bitcpin and see what will happen.

stomachgrowls

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$500k price per bitcoin is just really an insane thing to think off on this kind of price range and i would really say that 13 years isnt really enough to make this huge growth on bitcoins price.Its too much unrealistic to consider it might grow big but not this big where comes to a point reaching out half a million dollars.

mr.mister

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Quote from: Juggy777 on April 10, 2017, 07:08:23 AM

In the long run his words will be forgotten, it's a very big assumption and I feel he is doing it to hike the btc price which he has in order to sell his Bitcoins and get out. I don't think this is a reality especially with BU and Segwit. As far the number based maybe he's taken from the exchanges or just decided to quote a random number knowing very well no one can find the truth. I would be more than to Happy if the price reach half or 3/4 also

It's not an assumption. It's a forecast, based on facts and projections for the future. He is doing nothing different than any analyst does with any stock. Did you bother to read the article? He outlines clearly why he thinks it will go up. I see it as very plausible.

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Quote from: iamnotback on April 10, 2017, 02:01:02 AM

Quote from: OmegaStarScream on April 10, 2017, 01:50:26 AM

According to Jeremy Liew, the first investor in Snapchat, and Blockchain CEO and cofounder Peter Smith. In a presentation sent to Business Insider, the duo laid out their case for why it's reasonable for bitcoin to explode to $500,000 by 2030.

A very interesting article at Business Insider that worth reading: http://www.businessinsider.com/bitcoin-price-could-be-500000-by-2030-first-snapchat-investor-says-2017-3

I originally thought BTC might top out below $50k.

But now that I understand that BTC will be exclusively only the settlement layer for the mass scaling which will take place in altcoins, I now think his analysis may be correct.

All the power broker settlement will likely to be on the Bitcoin blockchain which will be the bulk of the fungible capital generated by the masses on the altcoins as dictated by the power-law (Zipf's law) distribution of wealth. Thus Bitcoin is the reserve currency of all the altcoins.

This is why one must stay invested in this sector. Note I do think the altcoins that scale up the masses will see faster appreciation than BTC in spurts, so that is one of way of increasing one's BTC if you are expert at speculation. Otherwise buy and hodl BTC.

Do you really believe in the $500,000 in 10 year prediction? If BTC is 6 figures by 2030, even $100,000 would do it for me. I think I could have enough to sell 50% and keep hodling 50% and dedicate myself to a stress free lifestyle without working, no luxuries tho.

I just can't believe it tbh. The growth would be unprecedented. I cant think of any other asset that would have growth at such rate ever.

A lot of things can happen in 10 years, but one thing is clear, the more time BTC stays alive, the more it solidifies. It's the only blockchain with 7+ uptime, no other can claim that unless they invent a time machine too. Uninterrupted uptime is a strong asset in itself.

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