So far my predictions have been accurate.

David M

sr. member

Activity: 476

Merit: 250

Quote from: grod on September 29, 2011, 02:26:27 PM

Yup, the rare triple bottom happens when buy side interest outweighs the sellers

I'd rephrase that to "triple bottom happens when the sellers are exhausted*".

*Mentally (Screw it, the money is gone.. I'll hold the rest) , financially (no BTC left) and chronologically (They are tired of seeing a bear market)

S3052

legendary

Activity: 2100

Merit: 1000

I agree. These times are great to wipe out the weak hands.

Minsc

full member

Activity: 210

Merit: 100

I revised my theory. Bitcoins just simply always does something bad.

Typically:
1) Stagnates. Bad for investors.
2) Slowly drops.
3) Jumps a huge amount when you're not expecting it screwing over everyone who sold. Then it sits there a long time before it crashes back down.
4) Drops and then when you wait for it to go back up, it sits there forever.
5) Rallies big but once it goes up 20 cents, then some a-hole sells 20K coins to force it back down

grod

full member

Activity: 154

Merit: 100

Yup, the rare triple bottom happens when buy side interest outweighs the sellers -- you have increasing volume as well as break through resistance. In other words, if you really do have a reversal it's quite likely to be real and the start of a lengthy up trend.

What is far LESS rare in a down trending stock is failure to break out to the upside and instead breaking through support. In which case that's simply an unconfirmed double bottom reversal pattern and you try again later.

You don't have to go far to see this in bitcoin. Bring up the 6 month non-log chart. You can easily see a double bottom with the first dip start of July, second dip mid July, third dip in August which was not confirmed by an upside breakout but instead by smashing of support. Try to find triple bottom patterns on stocks you watch. For every one you find I will easily find five unconfirmed double bottoms.

As proof I submit this is exactly why experienced technicians do not advise buying near support levels on an unconfirmed double bottom reversal. It's risky until you know it's really *IS* a reversal pattern. The same goes double for triple bottoms.

ineededausername

hero member

Activity: 784

Merit: 1000

bitcoin hundred-aire

Quote from: fivebells on September 29, 2011, 12:16:35 PM

Quote from: grod on September 29, 2011, 10:29:50 AM

Triple bottoms are very rare. Far more often you break through the support and try again lower.

This is interesting. Where can I read about how this principle was established?

You can't; the reverse is recognized by some people:
http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:chart_analysis:chart_patterns:triple_bottom_revers

fivebells

sr. member

Activity: 462

Merit: 250

Quote from: grod on September 29, 2011, 10:29:50 AM

Triple bottoms are very rare. Far more often you break through the support and try again lower.

This is interesting. Where can I read about how this principle was established?

grod

full member

Activity: 154

Merit: 100

Quote from: Gerken on September 29, 2011, 08:21:20 AM

Quote from: fivebells on September 29, 2011, 07:48:39 AM

A plausible argument can be made for "support" at this level, based on the fact that it has bounced from here twice now. Pretty thin evidence, though, and completely retrospective. I have no idea what the basis for those bounces was, and whether it still applies now.

You're right about that, it's odd it's been at this level with no major activity so far though. I think the stagnation is scaring off the investors, they are afraid there won't be an up in a short period of time in which to sell into, and the midterm beyond that is uncertain at this point.

Triple bottoms are very rare. Far more often you break through the support and try again lower.

Gerken

full member

Activity: 126

Merit: 100

Quote from: fivebells on September 29, 2011, 07:48:39 AM

A plausible argument can be made for "support" at this level, based on the fact that it has bounced from here twice now. Pretty thin evidence, though, and completely retrospective. I have no idea what the basis for those bounces was, and whether it still applies now.

You're right about that, it's odd it's been at this level with no major activity so far though. I think the stagnation is scaring off the investors, they are afraid there won't be an up in a short period of time in which to sell into, and the midterm beyond that is uncertain at this point.

fivebells

sr. member

Activity: 462

Merit: 250

A plausible argument can be made for "support" at this level, based on the fact that it has bounced from here twice now. Pretty thin evidence, though, and completely retrospective. I have no idea what the basis for those bounces was, and whether it still applies now.

Gerken

full member

Activity: 126

Merit: 100

Quote from: cbeast on September 29, 2011, 04:36:56 AM

So now it's down to under 5 USD. It's the end of the month and the gubbermint check hasn't come yet. I think we've hit bottom. Live or die, bitcoin. Let's see if you have another rally in you.

What makes you think this is the bottom? People have been saying that for a while but it keeps dropping.

cbeast

donator

Activity: 1736

Merit: 1014

Let's talk governance, lipstick, and pigs.

So now it's down to under 5 USD. It's the end of the month and the gubbermint check hasn't come yet. I think we've hit bottom. Live or die, bitcoin. Let's see if you have another rally in you.

NamelessOne

legendary

Activity: 840

Merit: 1000

Excellent! Grin

Minsc

full member

Activity: 210

Merit: 100

Well I also bought 13 coins around $5.99 and sold them at $6.10.

NamelessOne

legendary

Activity: 840

Merit: 1000

Quote from: Minsc on September 20, 2011, 08:43:08 PM

Quote from: NamelessOne on September 20, 2011, 08:39:56 PM

Quote from: Minsc on September 20, 2011, 08:20:49 PM

Holy crap it starts collapsing!

That is actually quite amazing how someone (The Manipulator or a weakling) dropped 2500BTC minutes after you bought. The Manipulator is watching you.

This isn't that bad. It may actually go back up. I've actually not had every trade I make as a loss. It's just I've had many incidences where it will drop several dollars seconds after I go all in and buy everything.

I agree, I think it will go back up too, it is just annoying set back. The market seems happy with 6 range at the moment, with a subtle climb happening. I'm glad things haven't actually been that bad for you. The same has happened to me previously so I understand the pain.

Minsc

full member

Activity: 210

Merit: 100

Quote from: NamelessOne on September 20, 2011, 08:39:56 PM

Quote from: Minsc on September 20, 2011, 08:20:49 PM

Holy crap it starts collapsing!

That is actually quite amazing how someone (The Manipulator or a weakling) dropped 2500BTC minutes after you bought. The Manipulator is watching you.

This isn't that bad. It may actually go back up. I've actually not had every trade I make as a loss. It's just I've had many incidences where it will drop several dollars seconds after I go all in and buy everything.

NamelessOne

legendary

Activity: 840

Merit: 1000

Quote from: Minsc on September 20, 2011, 08:20:49 PM

Holy crap it starts collapsing!

That is actually quite amazing how someone (The Manipulator or a weakling) dropped 2500BTC minutes after you bought. The Manipulator is watching you.

Minsc

full member

Activity: 210

Merit: 100

Quote from: N12 on September 20, 2011, 08:23:09 PM

Quote from: Minsc on September 20, 2011, 08:20:49 PM

Holy crap it starts collapsing!

Sell your Bitcoins ASAP. Grin

I bought hardly anything, about 5% of my available money. If it collapses to cheap then it's like sacrificing a pawn in chess.

N12

donator

Activity: 1610

Merit: 1010

Quote from: Minsc on September 20, 2011, 08:20:49 PM

Holy crap it starts collapsing!

Sell your Bitcoins ASAP. Grin

Minsc

full member

Activity: 210

Merit: 100

Holy crap it starts collapsing!

Minsc

full member

Activity: 210

Merit: 100

I have bought 3 coins at 6.14334 (2.988 coins after Gox fees), using only about 5% of my available money. We shall see where the price goes now.

Based on the price screwing me over, it would best screw me over if it stagnated right around where I bought it, never reaching my sell order of the coins for 10 cents more, but also never dropping real low either.

Topic: So far my predictions have been accurate. (Read 3217 times)