So I guess we sell at $48626 ? - page 5.

Hamza2424

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Quote from: jeraldskie11 on December 06, 2023, 10:24:24 AM

Quote from: adaseb on December 03, 2023, 10:45:31 PM

0.618 Fibonacci is not always correct; just because you see it in the market numerous times and the price bounces back when it hits that level doesn't mean it works 100% of the time. The golden zone between 0.5 and 0.618 Fib is where price normally pulls back, however trading or predicting with fib alone is hard. SnR, in my opinion, is considerably superior to Fib since without Fib, you may trade with only SnR. To boost the probability of my trade, I employ Fib as confluence.

According to my observations on the chart, the price bounced when it reached SnR levels near the 0.618 fib. In the 2023 chart, the price may reach $45k to $50k before dropping because the market may obey the SnR, Fib, Supply, and FVG, or may also sweep a liquidity on that swing point before the price drops.

Hmm, Price speculations cant be trusted every time with the indicators and supporting historical momentum, especially when we are talking about the situations now, where the market seems more dominated by the Sentiments and the unclear and surprising developments are highly expected.

In such cases, we can just modify our positions from time to time or just let the scenario come up with some clearity.

jeraldskie11

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Quote from: adaseb on December 03, 2023, 10:45:31 PM

0.618 Fibonacci is not always correct; just because you see it in the market numerous times and the price bounces back when it hits that level doesn't mean it works 100% of the time. The golden zone between 0.5 and 0.618 Fib is where price normally pulls back, however trading or predicting with fib alone is hard. SnR, in my opinion, is considerably superior to Fib since without Fib, you may trade with only SnR. To boost the probability of my trade, I employ Fib as confluence.

According to my observations on the chart, the price bounced when it reached SnR levels near the 0.618 fib. In the 2023 chart, the price may reach $45k to $50k before dropping because the market may obey the SnR, Fib, Supply, and FVG, or may also sweep a liquidity on that swing point before the price drops.

naikturun

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Quote from: Tytanowy Janusz on December 04, 2023, 02:04:57 AM

Play heads or tails 5 times and there is a chance that it will come up heads 5 times. This does not mean that the result will always be heads. The same here. Sample N=3 (number of repetitions of the pattern that occurred in 2017 - rebound from 0.618 FIB) is definitely too little to draw conclusions about how accurate this indicator is. But like any good technical analysis indicator, Fibbonaci retracements have accurate data available online about the indicator's performance:

"How Accurate Are Fibonacci Retracements? Some experts believe that Fibonacci retracements can forecast about 70% of market movements, especially when a specific price point is predicted."
https://www.investopedia.com/articles/forex/11/fibonacci-rules.asp

"Overall, Fibonacci retracement was accurate only 37% of the time. If you exclusively used this indicator for trading, you would have more losing trades than winners. Additionally, the golden rule of 61.8% was no more likely to be reliable than any other Fibonacci level."
https://www.liberatedstocktrader.com/how-to-use-fibonacci-retracement/

In my opinion, in the case of crypto, this indicator is better than in the broader market, because price here is not influenced by non-technical factors (such as the company's financial results), so it is probably closer to 70% than 37%, but it is definitely not 100%.

Also 48k is a good target to take profit.

Do you think everything is based on technical analysis?
and history keeps repeating itself, I don't think if that's the case we should see a decline in bitcoin this month if it's based on history.
It turns out that this month and 2 months ago Bitcoin has continued to rise this year.
because this year may be different from previous years, where previously not many people or parties entered the bitcoin market, now many people know about it.
I asked ordinary people, do you know bitcoin, they answered yes, I saw it on the internet.
of course it will have a different impact, more market players will be more difficult to predict.

rodskee

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Quote from: bitzizzix on December 05, 2023, 09:25:46 PM

It's up to you all, everyone has their own plans, strategies and targets. And as long as you sell on favorable terms there is no problem.
However, I personally am still optimistic about the price of 100k or close to that price, even if it doesn't reach that price and goes down again I will still take advantage of buying it. And I prefer a bright future, and maybe I just take a little profit to enjoy if the new ATH doesn't reach the price I want. Grin

so what is the main plan at all ? you aren't selling this semi bullrun mate?
because this is the chance to get little profit for the instance and indeed that we are all optimistic
about 100k usd for the bitcoin but what we are looking now is the advantage of this market attitude now .

Quote from: Obim34 on December 05, 2023, 05:26:42 PM

Deciding if to sell at any point is base on the owners decision, if he feels he has made enough profits and is contend with it then he is free to close the market and enjoy his profits. But we all said that Bitcoin is for a long term, also considering that we have not undergo the Bitcoin Halving it will be very unwise for one to cut off from the market. Bitcoin aligns with being patient and observant and in everything we should apply knowledge, that is why we are to understand Bitcoin before making any entry.

I suggest you hold your Bitcoin, watch out how the market movement is then you would understand when to sell, maybe you bought at a lower price, like of those who bought at price range $15k to $20k and already made x2 or x3 of their investment and using that as enough reason to sell. One can still wait after the halving and make better profits than selling now

If you bought at that lower price then better to sell in this mate , look at the climb and you will take
that advantage to sell for a while and to take a chance to buy once the market dumping again that I believe will come sooner after this bull.

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Quote from: philipma1957 on December 05, 2023, 07:52:51 PM

Quote from: bitterguy28 on December 04, 2023, 11:51:31 PM

Quote from: TravelMug on December 04, 2023, 09:11:07 AM

Quote from: naira on December 04, 2023, 06:57:06 AM

Quote from: mich on December 04, 2023, 03:47:23 AM

Well I think this is when we need to make some important decisions for ourself. The price of Bitcoin is up 150% just in this year so there is profits to take from that.
So if we are thinking about taking some profits it is a good time to sell some. I think there is going to be a correction when ETF approval does happen.
And then also for the Bitcoin halving next year. I am 'bullish' and will not be selling any of my Bitcoin. But I do think there is many investors who will. It is a hard thing to not take 'free money'.

So far I don't have an agenda to sell in the near future, my target is still to try to collect more while I can. Because whatever the level of movement today and facing the end of the year is always a little worrying. Indeed, when you are optimistic that the price is above $40k, this is a kind of manipulation, but for traders it will be quite profitable to divert attention to altcoins, where if the Bitcoin price flattens out, altseason could take over the market for a while.

Of course, majority of us are long term holders, so we don't want to sell when the price is not at all time high. But there could be short term traders here looking for fib numbers and who knows $48k is already big for these kind of traders.

I am planning to sell in case we hit 45k usd to double my chance when time comes bitcoin dumped like what expected before this year ends or after January because I believe that we are lowering or correction before the halving season so yes lets have it this way and not to complete Holding.

Quote

And so it's interesting to see if there will be sellers and then what will be the market reaction to that. Will we continue to buy or there could be some sort of others pushing the sell button as well?

i may have interest to invest more or maybe sell and buy , like what many keeps saying as continues holding is not so advisable in our days now.
because the market sometimes goes roller coaster or sometimes making difference to the time we need to sell .

i have been selling on an up ladder 🪜.

no complaints.

It's up to you all, everyone has their own plans, strategies and targets. And as long as you sell on favorable terms there is no problem.
However, I personally am still optimistic about the price of 100k or close to that price, even if it doesn't reach that price and goes down again I will still take advantage of buying it. And I prefer a bright future, and maybe I just take a little profit to enjoy if the new ATH doesn't reach the price I want. Grin

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Quote from: adaseb on December 03, 2023, 10:45:31 PM

Because the 68.2 Fibonacci level is always right. Even though in 2021 we broke higher to $69K that area originally had a significant pullback. Also the $48000 area is where that pivot is which was the high on March 2022. Not investment advice but its either a coincidence or this fib level is crazy accurate.

2023-2024

too close now as we are nearing 44k and looks like will be hitting 48k this December before we close the 2023 , and the graph slowly going to that possibilities .

48k maybe the barricade this year or we can make even 50's?

Quote from: danadc on December 05, 2023, 12:23:56 PM

I do not recommend selling, large Investors , even though they are in large profits, do not sell, because they know that the price will rise, that is what others Should see and do, and there is no other way , this works like that , but everything is free of charge do whatever they Want.

correction must happen mate and some are taking their small profit before rebuying so let them have their way , important thing is majority still holds or at least more than half of their funds remains in bitcoin.

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Quote from: bitterguy28 on December 04, 2023, 11:51:31 PM

Quote from: TravelMug on December 04, 2023, 09:11:07 AM

Quote from: naira on December 04, 2023, 06:57:06 AM

Quote from: mich on December 04, 2023, 03:47:23 AM

Well I think this is when we need to make some important decisions for ourself. The price of Bitcoin is up 150% just in this year so there is profits to take from that.
So if we are thinking about taking some profits it is a good time to sell some. I think there is going to be a correction when ETF approval does happen.
And then also for the Bitcoin halving next year. I am 'bullish' and will not be selling any of my Bitcoin. But I do think there is many investors who will. It is a hard thing to not take 'free money'.

So far I don't have an agenda to sell in the near future, my target is still to try to collect more while I can. Because whatever the level of movement today and facing the end of the year is always a little worrying. Indeed, when you are optimistic that the price is above $40k, this is a kind of manipulation, but for traders it will be quite profitable to divert attention to altcoins, where if the Bitcoin price flattens out, altseason could take over the market for a while.

Of course, majority of us are long term holders, so we don't want to sell when the price is not at all time high. But there could be short term traders here looking for fib numbers and who knows $48k is already big for these kind of traders.

I am planning to sell in case we hit 45k usd to double my chance when time comes bitcoin dumped like what expected before this year ends or after January because I believe that we are lowering or correction before the halving season so yes lets have it this way and not to complete Holding.

Quote

And so it's interesting to see if there will be sellers and then what will be the market reaction to that. Will we continue to buy or there could be some sort of others pushing the sell button as well?

i may have interest to invest more or maybe sell and buy , like what many keeps saying as continues holding is not so advisable in our days now.
because the market sometimes goes roller coaster or sometimes making difference to the time we need to sell .

i have been selling on an up ladder 🪜.

no complaints.

Obim34

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Deciding if to sell at any point is base on the owners decision, if he feels he has made enough profits and is contend with it then he is free to close the market and enjoy his profits. But we all said that Bitcoin is for a long term, also considering that we have not undergo the Bitcoin Halving it will be very unwise for one to cut off from the market. Bitcoin aligns with being patient and observant and in everything we should apply knowledge, that is why we are to understand Bitcoin before making any entry.

I suggest you hold your Bitcoin, watch out how the market movement is then you would understand when to sell, maybe you bought at a lower price, like of those who bought at price range $15k to $20k and already made x2 or x3 of their investment and using that as enough reason to sell. One can still wait after the halving and make better profits than selling now

coolcoinz

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OK, so a deep correction at 48k, which is about 3x the bear market low. I guess that's why when we did a 3x from a bear market low of 2018/19 bear market (3k) we corrected (at 9k)... oh wait, we did not, we also did not correct at 10, 100, 12, and 13k...

Then your theory could be right and wrong at the same time because we had another low (black swan in 2020) and what happened when we did 3x from that 4k? Yes, we corrected from 14k to 10k, but then we went parabolic straight to 41k. Literally the whole correction took 2 weeks and 6 months later we did 4x from that. Is it worth it trying to get 20% more on a good trade, when you risk missing the 400% move?

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Quote from: pooya87 on December 04, 2023, 09:20:09 AM

Bitcoins current all time high is sitting at $70k and the higher we go the less willing people are going to be to sell their bitcoins. Meaning if price reaches $48k there are more people who would want to buy bitcoin and push the price over the resistance at $50k and beyond to reach the previous ATH again.

And of course we may finally see a momentum build up that breaks through all these prices one by one.

This is exactly my prediction. Apart from the technical aspect, on the levels of common sense, I do not see any kind of resistance in $48. What I sense is that if Bitcoin reaches $48k, it will easily get to 50k because of some bull run rush.
Where I know significant drama will happen is getting to $100k. I have this great feeling that there will be sell pressure immediately bitcoin touches a new ATH and that pressure may prevent 100k. The only saviour to this impending scenario is the newbies who will be buying by then. If Bitcoin gets to 50k, I will stop my DCA and begin plan my exit strategy.

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Quote from: pinggoki on December 05, 2023, 02:56:17 AM

Quote from: Yamane_Keto on December 04, 2023, 02:36:07 AM

You expect us to return to $36,000, so you are betting that it is the right time to sell? This may be true, but the price will return to rise in one way or another next May and may break $70,000 before the end of the year. Selling now as part of a short-term trading plan will be understandable, but it is not a long-term selling point.

Relying on 0.618 FIB while ignoring the rest of the indicators may cause a loss.

Breaking at 70k by the end of the year is a crazy number but I know how bitcoin is, hopefully I could sell a large portion of what I currently hold at that price and still make a profit and hopefully get back in because the price starts to go down again. Long-term, everyone should keep at least 80% of their bitcoin and enjoy selling that 30% if the 70k price happens again.

Yes, it's going to be crazy to see a new all time high at end of the year. And I think we have that kind of thread and said that it can't be done. But looking at how people FOMO this week, I don't know what to think right now. The thing is, we even are not yet in the bull run, but look at what the size of mempool and the transaction fees. So imagine what's going to happen if we hit at least 6 digits in the bull run. But just keep on holding I guess, from $11k to $45k is a huge increased year to year. However, if we will have to look at it, profits can still be made after the block halving and then following the bull run. So no selling for me.

Hamza2424

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Quote from: Yamane_Keto on December 04, 2023, 02:36:07 AM

You expect us to return to $36,000, so you are betting that it is the right time to sell? This may be true, but the price will return to rise in one way or another next May and may break $70,000 before the end of the year. Selling now as part of a short-term trading plan will be understandable, but it is not a long-term selling point.

Relying on 0.618 FIB while ignoring the rest of the indicators may cause a loss.

This is what we call saving the profit, but what you've said is also right, if the perspective is for the long term, selling at the 48k is highly risky becasue currently market is breaking most of the regular resistances and I'm expecting the yearly closing arround 47k to 49k range. The coming year is highly bullish for the Bitcoin we can even expect the early Bitcoin ETF approval.

Maybe market wont even give you a chance to buy back, but if your investment was for a shorter perioid that is really a good point to book some profit to avoid any Upset.

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I’m not sure those charts are all depicting the same thing. When comparing times like this, it’s best to use charts every 4 years as the halving is the dominant factor in Bitcoin’s value increases. I also think that 2021 was an anomaly due to the FTX fraud, so only one of those comparison charts makes any relative sense. I do feel like a correction is coming, but I also wouldn’t be surprised if the FTX fiasco depressed values so much that up is the only way to go from here.

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Many may say that it is better to sell at a 'price is below the last high, the idea is to win big, selling low is not much , that only Means that things can be Seen in a safer way, it is something very conservative and does not suit me, which I I look for what I want, because when I decide to invest in Bitcoin I do it because I believe in this, and there is no other better investment than this one , those who want to sell it is a matter for them, they will see if they Want to sell below it, then when we do Things go well and thinking about the Future.

I do not recommend selling, large Investors , even though they are in large profits, do not sell, because they know that the price will rise, that is what others Should see and do, and there is no other way , this works like that , but everything is free of charge do whatever they Want.

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Quote from: Mpamaegbu on December 05, 2023, 09:29:33 AM

One thing with Fibs is that there's no set rule where to draw it from. You drew from the Weekly and got the value you're pointing us to. Another person draws from the Monthly or 4HR and the values for 0.618 Fib level (which is taken as the retracement point) won't be the same. You go down lower timeframes and they differ more. Come to think of it, once price gets to the $48k range there will be likely be less people who want to rush out. From what I perceive, investors will be hodling on to their coins and looking at the current ATH which is somewhere at $69k+. I think it's at the current ATH we're likely to find a momentary sell off as that's now a psychological level.

I just used the weekly timeframe but I drew from the ATH and the cycle low.

I know that there are countless timeframes and ways to use fib levels. However the lower the timeframe the less accurate they are. So I used the most concrete levels, cycle low and cycle high and it seems to have some accuracy. But I agree with you, its not that useful on any timeframe other than the weekly or higher. This is similar to moving averages. They are accurate on higher timeframes than lower timeframes.

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Quote from: adaseb on December 03, 2023, 10:45:31 PM

Because the 68.2 Fibonacci level is always right. Even though in 2021 we broke higher to $69K that area originally had a significant pullback. Also the $48000 area is where that pivot is which was the high on March 2022. Not investment advice but its either a coincidence or this fib level is crazy accurate.

I'm not an expert in such things and TA is definitely not my forte, but we should always keep an open mind and take into account that $48k will be some kind of barrier that will stop the current growth. Realistically, there are two reasons why the price is currently rising - one is the very strong belief that the SEC will approve the spot ETF in Q1 2024, and the other is the pre-halving effect that generates the final phase of accumulation.

However, even if we stop at $48k, is it realistic to expect more than a 10% to maybe 15% correction?

Mpamaegbu

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One thing with Fibs is that there's no set rule where to draw it from. You drew from the Weekly and got the value you're pointing us to. Another person draws from the Monthly or 4HR and the values for 0.618 Fib level (which is taken as the retracement point) won't be the same. You go down lower timeframes and they differ more. Come to think of it, once price gets to the $48k range there will be likely be less people who want to rush out. From what I perceive, investors will be hodling on to their coins and looking at the current ATH which is somewhere at $69k+. I think it's at the current ATH we're likely to find a momentary sell off as that's now a psychological level.

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Quote from: Yamane_Keto on December 04, 2023, 02:36:07 AM

You expect us to return to $36,000, so you are betting that it is the right time to sell? This may be true, but the price will return to rise in one way or another next May and may break $70,000 before the end of the year. Selling now as part of a short-term trading plan will be understandable, but it is not a long-term selling point.

Relying on 0.618 FIB while ignoring the rest of the indicators may cause a loss.

Breaking at 70k by the end of the year is a crazy number but I know how bitcoin is, hopefully I could sell a large portion of what I currently hold at that price and still make a profit and hopefully get back in because the price starts to go down again. Long-term, everyone should keep at least 80% of their bitcoin and enjoy selling that 30% if the 70k price happens again.

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Quote from: peter0425 on December 04, 2023, 03:04:19 AM

Quote from: Yamane_Keto on December 04, 2023, 02:36:07 AM

You expect us to return to $36,000, so you are betting that it is the right time to sell? This may be true, but the price will return to rise in one way or another next May and may break $70,000 before the end of the year. Selling now as part of a short-term trading plan will be understandable, but it is not a long-term selling point.

Relying on 0.618 FIB while ignoring the rest of the indicators may cause a loss.

still all is about speculation , the graphs shows some significant figures but are those truly coming? yet this is a decision from us to believe as we are the one who might lose once this cross different path.

Trust bitcoin , that is the only thing that for me matters in this kind of situation , bitcoin climbing now to break 42$k https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/ and what comes next is up to us , I might consider selling at 45k but might change my mind and keep the holding , who really cares? no one but me so yes i will decide depending in my beliefs and views.

It depends on your target in bitcoin that will determination, if you have target in bitcoin I will encourage you not to sell now, but a process whereby you doesn't have a target of when to sell and when not to sell bitcoin I believe that bitcoin will continue to increase because if the price of bitcoin will climb to this particular value bitcoin is right now, I think their is every tendency that in 2024 the price of bitcoin might climb to to sixty thousands [60k] because you may think that this forty thousand and forty two thousand the price of bitcoin is right now is the best time and opportunity to sell, I think is for best time for someone that is curious to sell it bitcoin depends when it invest or purchase its bitcoin.

The only thing I have to say concerning bitcoin is that the price always fluctuates and you selling now in order to make a profit it depends when you purchase a bitcoin and secondly, if you are into long-term investment at least you have a target of when you will sell and when you not sell your bitcoin, so therefore I believe that your target will determine when you will sell your coin..People who is into short term investment always curious to sell and make a profit as I stipulated or portray above.

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Quote from: TravelMug on December 04, 2023, 09:11:07 AM

Quote from: naira on December 04, 2023, 06:57:06 AM

Quote from: mich on December 04, 2023, 03:47:23 AM

Well I think this is when we need to make some important decisions for ourself. The price of Bitcoin is up 150% just in this year so there is profits to take from that.
So if we are thinking about taking some profits it is a good time to sell some. I think there is going to be a correction when ETF approval does happen.
And then also for the Bitcoin halving next year. I am 'bullish' and will not be selling any of my Bitcoin. But I do think there is many investors who will. It is a hard thing to not take 'free money'.

So far I don't have an agenda to sell in the near future, my target is still to try to collect more while I can. Because whatever the level of movement today and facing the end of the year is always a little worrying. Indeed, when you are optimistic that the price is above $40k, this is a kind of manipulation, but for traders it will be quite profitable to divert attention to altcoins, where if the Bitcoin price flattens out, altseason could take over the market for a while.

Of course, majority of us are long term holders, so we don't want to sell when the price is not at all time high. But there could be short term traders here looking for fib numbers and who knows $48k is already big for these kind of traders.

I am planning to sell in case we hit 45k usd to double my chance when time comes bitcoin dumped like what expected before this year ends or after January because I believe that we are lowering or correction before the halving season so yes lets have it this way and not to complete Holding.

Quote

And so it's interesting to see if there will be sellers and then what will be the market reaction to that. Will we continue to buy or there could be some sort of others pushing the sell button as well?

i may have interest to invest more or maybe sell and buy , like what many keeps saying as continues holding is not so advisable in our days now.
because the market sometimes goes roller coaster or sometimes making difference to the time we need to sell .

Topic: So I guess we sell at $48626 ? - page 5. (Read 1001 times)